FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 247
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 03 SEP 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5131 (S21W18)
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD
AND CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST, MOST IMPRESSIVE GROUP ON THE
DISK AT THIS TIME. REGION 5126 (S22W51) ALSO PRODUCED A FEW
SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES INCLUDING TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT, A
C5.8/1N AT 0719Z. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED: REGION 5134
(N33E75), A SIMPLE H-TYPE SPOT THAT ROTATED INTO VIEW,  AND
REGION 5135 (N19E07) A SIMPLE B-TYPE GROUP THAT EMERGED ON THE
DISK. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET AND
STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MODERATE LEVELS OF ACTIVITY
FROM REGION 5131.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED AT MID-LATITUDES AND
WAS GENERALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MINOR STORM LEVELS WAS REPORTED BY SOME HIGH LATITUDE
SITES EARLY IN THE DAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND MOSTLY
ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 SEP-06 SEP
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 SEP  174
PREDICTED   04 SEP-06 SEP  174/174/174
90 DAY MEAN        03 SEP  151
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 02 SEP  011/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 SEP  012/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 SEP-06 SEP  010/025-010/025-010/020