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19880830RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 243
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 30 AUG 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5131 (S19E33)
IS AGAIN THE DOMINANT REGION ON THE DISK. IT PRODUCED NEARLY
ALL OF THE DAY'S FLARES WITH THE LARGEST A C9/0F THAT REACHED
MAXIMUM AT 1410Z. THE REGION IS LARGE, BRIGHT AND MAGNETICALLY
COMPLEX. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 5132 (N34E58) IS A SMALL BIPOLE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK HAS BEEN STABLE. WEAK SURGING HAS
BEEN REPORTED NEAR NW20 WHERE REGION 5117 IS LEAVING THE
VISIBLE DISK.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 5131 SHOULD GENERATE M-CLASS ACTIVITY
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN GENERALLY UNSETTLED AT MID-
LATITUDES. HIGH LATITUDES OBSERVED PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE TO
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS PUNCTUATED WITH BRIEF EPISODES OF
MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 31 AUG-02 SEP
CLASS M 50/50/50
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 05/05/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 30 AUG 187
PREDICTED 31 AUG-02 SEP 187/185/183
90 DAY MEAN 30 AUG 149
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 AUG 010/029
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 AUG 010/032
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 AUG-02 SEP 010/022-010/015-010/015
********** PLEASE NOTE **********
EFFECTIVE 1 SEPTEMBER 1988, SESC WILL BE USING THE FOLLOWING
DEFINITIONS FOR SOLAR ACTIVITY LEVELS:
VERY LOW = X-RAY EVENTS LESS THAN C-CLASS
LOW = C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
MODERATE = ISOLATED (1 TO 4) M-CLASS EVENTS
HIGH = SEVERAL (5 OR MORE) M-CLASS EVENTS OR
ISOLATED (1 TO 4) M5 OR GREATER X-RAY EVENTS
VERY HIGH = SEVERAL (5 OR MORE) M5 OR GREATER X-RAY EVENTS