FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 243
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 30 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  REGION 5131 (S19E33)
IS AGAIN THE DOMINANT REGION ON THE DISK.  IT PRODUCED NEARLY
ALL OF THE DAY'S FLARES WITH THE LARGEST A C9/0F THAT REACHED
MAXIMUM AT 1410Z.  THE REGION IS LARGE, BRIGHT AND MAGNETICALLY
COMPLEX.  NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 5132 (N34E58) IS A SMALL BIPOLE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK HAS BEEN STABLE.  WEAK SURGING HAS
BEEN REPORTED NEAR NW20 WHERE REGION 5117 IS LEAVING THE
VISIBLE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE.  REGION 5131 SHOULD GENERATE M-CLASS ACTIVITY
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN GENERALLY UNSETTLED AT MID-
LATITUDES.  HIGH LATITUDES OBSERVED PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE TO
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS PUNCTUATED WITH BRIEF EPISODES OF
MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 31 AUG-02 SEP
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 AUG  187
PREDICTED   31 AUG-02 SEP  187/185/183
90 DAY MEAN        30 AUG  149
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 29 AUG  010/029
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 AUG  010/032
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 AUG-02 SEP  010/022-010/015-010/015

     **********    PLEASE NOTE     **********

EFFECTIVE 1 SEPTEMBER 1988, SESC WILL BE USING THE FOLLOWING
DEFINITIONS FOR SOLAR ACTIVITY LEVELS:

VERY LOW = X-RAY EVENTS LESS THAN C-CLASS
LOW      = C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
MODERATE = ISOLATED (1 TO 4) M-CLASS EVENTS
HIGH     = SEVERAL (5 OR MORE) M-CLASS EVENTS OR
   ISOLATED (1 TO 4) M5 OR GREATER X-RAY EVENTS
VERY HIGH = SEVERAL (5 OR MORE) M5 OR GREATER X-RAY EVENTS