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19880730RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 212
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 30 JUL 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5092 (N28E35)
PRODUCED AN M1/1F AT 29/2132Z AND AN M1/2N AT 30/0851Z. NO
SIGNIFICANT RADIO BURSTS WERE OBSERVED WITH EITHER FLARE. THE
GROWTH IN THIS REGION CEASED BUT SOME MIXED POLARITIES ARE
EVIDENT. REGION 5084 (S21W19) PRODUCED SEVERAL CLASS C
SUBFLARES AND A WEAK DELTA FORMED IN THIS SLOWLY DECAYING
REGION.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
MODERATE WITH REGION 5092 AS THE PRINCIPAL CONTRIBUTOR. AN
ISOLATED CLASS M FLARE IS POSSIBLE FROM REGION 5084 PRIOR TO
ITS WEST LIMB TRANSIT. NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVE REGIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE MID LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES WERE PREDOMINANTLY
ACTIVE.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED IN PART UPON A LARGE FILAMENT DISRUPTION OBSERVED ON
27 JULY.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 31 JUL-02 AUG
CLASS M 60/60/60
CLASS X 10/10/10
PROTON 05/05/10
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 30 JUL 183
PREDICTED 31 JUL-02 AUG 184/183/180
90 DAY MEAN 30 JUL 136
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 JUL 007/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 JUL 006/017
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 JUL-02 AUG 020/025-020/025-015/020