FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 212
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 30 JUL 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5092 (N28E35)
PRODUCED AN M1/1F AT 29/2132Z AND AN M1/2N AT 30/0851Z. NO
SIGNIFICANT RADIO BURSTS WERE OBSERVED WITH EITHER FLARE. THE
GROWTH IN THIS REGION CEASED BUT SOME MIXED POLARITIES ARE
EVIDENT. REGION 5084 (S21W19) PRODUCED SEVERAL CLASS C
SUBFLARES AND A WEAK DELTA FORMED IN THIS SLOWLY DECAYING
REGION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
MODERATE WITH REGION 5092 AS THE PRINCIPAL CONTRIBUTOR. AN
ISOLATED CLASS M FLARE IS POSSIBLE FROM REGION 5084 PRIOR TO
ITS WEST LIMB TRANSIT. NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVE REGIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE MID LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES WERE PREDOMINANTLY
ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED IN PART UPON A LARGE FILAMENT DISRUPTION OBSERVED ON
27 JULY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 31 JUL-02 AUG
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 JUL  183
PREDICTED   31 JUL-02 AUG  184/183/180
90 DAY MEAN        30 JUL  136
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 29 JUL  007/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 JUL  006/017
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 JUL-02 AUG  020/025-020/025-015/020