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19880725RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 207
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 25 JUL 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW TO MODERATE. REGION
5084 (S23E44) BEGAN A GROWTH PHASE MIDWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND PRODUCED THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE DAY: AN M1/2F FLARE AT
25/2012Z. TWO RAPIDLY EMERGING FLUX REGIONS WERE OBSERVED
WITHIN THE GROUP LATE IN THE PERIOD. BRIGHT SURGING AND LOOP
PROMINENCE ACTIVITY WERE OBSERVED ON THE SOUTHWEST LIMB NEAR
S22. THIS ACTIVITY PROBABLY ORIGINATED WITHIN OLD REGION 5075,
NOW WELL PAST THE WEST LIMB. TWO WEST LIMB CORONAL MASS
EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
THE FIRST WAS OBSERVED AT 25/0820Z AND THE SECOND AT 25/0953Z.
A LARGE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED DURING THE PERIOD. IT EXTENDED
FROM (ROUGHLY) N49E10 TO N55W65 BEFORE IT'S DISAPPEARANCE.
TWO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED TODAY: REGION 5089 (N21E12) AND
5090 (N13E47). BOTH WERE SIMPLE UNIPOLES.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF M-LEVEL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF X-LEVEL FLARING FROM REGION 5084.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE MIDDLE LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD WAS AT
MOSTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE LEVELS AT MIDDLE LEVELS AND AT ACTIVE
TO MINOR STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES IN RESPONSE TO
YESTERDAY'S LONG-DURATION M2/2N FLARE FROM REGION 5084.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 JUL-28 JUL
CLASS M 60/60/60
CLASS X 25/25/25
PROTON 25/25/25
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 25 JUL 137
PREDICTED 26 JUL-28 JUL 139/141/144
90 DAY MEAN 25 JUL 132
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 JUL 008/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 JUL 006/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 JUL-28 JUL 020/032-018/028-016/025