FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO SDF NUMBER 207 JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY. ISSUED 2200Z 25 JUL 1988 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 5084 (S23E44) BEGAN A GROWTH PHASE MIDWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE DAY: AN M1/2F FLARE AT 25/2012Z. TWO RAPIDLY EMERGING FLUX REGIONS WERE OBSERVED WITHIN THE GROUP LATE IN THE PERIOD. BRIGHT SURGING AND LOOP PROMINENCE ACTIVITY WERE OBSERVED ON THE SOUTHWEST LIMB NEAR S22. THIS ACTIVITY PROBABLY ORIGINATED WITHIN OLD REGION 5075, NOW WELL PAST THE WEST LIMB. TWO WEST LIMB CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WAS OBSERVED AT 25/0820Z AND THE SECOND AT 25/0953Z. A LARGE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED DURING THE PERIOD. IT EXTENDED FROM (ROUGHLY) N49E10 TO N55W65 BEFORE IT'S DISAPPEARANCE. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED TODAY: REGION 5089 (N21E12) AND 5090 (N13E47). BOTH WERE SIMPLE UNIPOLES. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF M-LEVEL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF X-LEVEL FLARING FROM REGION 5084. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z: THE MIDDLE LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD WAS AT MOSTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE LEVELS AT MIDDLE LEVELS AND AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES IN RESPONSE TO YESTERDAY'S LONG-DURATION M2/2N FLARE FROM REGION 5084. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 JUL-28 JUL CLASS M 60/60/60 CLASS X 25/25/25 PROTON 25/25/25 PCAF GREEN IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 25 JUL 137 PREDICTED 26 JUL-28 JUL 139/141/144 90 DAY MEAN 25 JUL 132 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 JUL 008/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 JUL 006/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 JUL-28 JUL 020/032-018/028-016/025