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19880605RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 157
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 05 JUN 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5032 (N18W13)
PRODUCED OCCASIONAL SUBFLARES AS IT ENTERED A DECAY PHASE. NEWLY
ASSIGNED REGION 5037 (N14W05) EMERGED AS A C-TYPE GROUP AND HAS
PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES. NEW REGION 5038 (S25W21) ALSO
EMERGED AS A C-TYPE GROUP AND PRODUCED THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
PERIOD: A C8/0F FLARE AT 05/1957Z. THIS EVENT WAS INSIGNIFICANT
IN RADIO ASPECTS. A MINOR TYPE II RADIO SWEEP BURST WAS
OBSERVED AT 05/0054Z, BUT NO OPTICAL OR X-RAY EVENTS WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWEEP. THE REMAINING SUNSPOT REGIONS WERE
STABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE MIDDLE LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO
UNSETTLED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD
HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE HIGH LATITUDE
FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 JUN-08 JUN
CLASS M 15/15/15
CLASS X 01/01/01
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 05 JUN 147
PREDICTED 06 JUN-08 JUN 147/148/148
90 DAY MEAN 05 JUN 121
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JUN 002/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JUN 006/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JUN-08 JUN 016/020-022/030-018/025