FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 157
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 05 JUN 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5032 (N18W13)
PRODUCED OCCASIONAL SUBFLARES AS IT ENTERED A DECAY PHASE. NEWLY
ASSIGNED REGION 5037 (N14W05) EMERGED AS A C-TYPE GROUP AND HAS
PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES. NEW REGION 5038 (S25W21) ALSO
EMERGED AS A C-TYPE GROUP AND PRODUCED THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
PERIOD: A C8/0F FLARE AT 05/1957Z. THIS EVENT WAS INSIGNIFICANT
IN RADIO ASPECTS. A MINOR TYPE II RADIO SWEEP BURST WAS
OBSERVED AT 05/0054Z, BUT NO OPTICAL OR X-RAY EVENTS WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWEEP. THE REMAINING SUNSPOT REGIONS WERE
STABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE MIDDLE LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO
UNSETTLED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD
HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE HIGH LATITUDE
FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 JUN-08 JUN
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 JUN  147
PREDICTED   06 JUN-08 JUN  147/148/148
90 DAY MEAN        05 JUN  121
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 04 JUN  002/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JUN  006/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JUN-08 JUN  016/020-022/030-018/025