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19880602RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 154
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 02 JUN 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5027 (S24W72)
DEVELOPED IN THE TRAILER PORTION AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL
C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS AND SUBFLARES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN REPORTED. REGION 5032
(N18E25) REMAINED STABLE AND PRODUCED ONLY A FEW SMALL X-RAY
BURSTS AND SUBFLARES. ALL OTHER REGIONS ARE STABLE OR DECLINING,
AND THE LIMBS ARE QUIET. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. ENERGETIC EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 5027 FOR THE
NEXT 2 DAYS, UNTIL IT ROTATES BEYOND WEST LIMB. THE PROBABILITY
OF M-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS AND FLARES FROM REGION 5032 IS
DECREASING AS THE REGION BEGINS A SLOW DECAY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS AT MIDDLE AND
HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET ON JUNE 3. A DISAPPEARING FILAMENT ON MAY
31 IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN GENERALLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON JUNE
4 AND 5.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 JUN-05 JUN
CLASS M 25/25/05
CLASS X 02/02/01
PROTON 02/02/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 02 JUN 144
PREDICTED 03 JUN-05 JUN 140/135/130
90 DAY MEAN 02 JUN 119
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 JUN 007/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 JUN 005/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 JUN-05 JUN 007/015-020/028-020/028