FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 154
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 02 JUN 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5027 (S24W72)
DEVELOPED IN THE TRAILER PORTION AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL
C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS AND SUBFLARES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN REPORTED. REGION 5032
(N18E25) REMAINED STABLE AND PRODUCED ONLY A FEW SMALL X-RAY
BURSTS AND SUBFLARES. ALL OTHER REGIONS ARE STABLE OR DECLINING,
AND THE LIMBS ARE QUIET. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. ENERGETIC EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 5027 FOR THE
NEXT 2 DAYS, UNTIL IT ROTATES BEYOND WEST LIMB. THE PROBABILITY
OF M-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS AND FLARES FROM REGION 5032 IS
DECREASING AS THE REGION BEGINS A SLOW DECAY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS AT MIDDLE AND
HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET ON JUNE 3. A DISAPPEARING FILAMENT ON MAY
31 IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN GENERALLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON JUNE
4 AND 5.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 JUN-05 JUN
CLASS M    25/25/05
CLASS X    02/02/01
PROTON     02/02/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 JUN  144
PREDICTED   03 JUN-05 JUN  140/135/130
90 DAY MEAN        02 JUN  119
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 01 JUN  007/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 JUN  005/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 JUN-05 JUN  007/015-020/028-020/028