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05141230forecast_discussion.txt
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:Product: 05141230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a
long duration C6/1f at 13/2224 UTC from Region 2056 (N05W29,
Eac/beta-gamma). Region 2060 (S15E02, Dac/beta-gamma) and newly
numbered Region 2063 (N10E48, Dao/beta) were also responsible for low
level C-class activity. Slight growth was observed in the intermediate
area of Regions 2056 and 2060 while moderate growth was observed in new
Region 2063. The rest of the numbered regions were either stable or in
decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during
the period.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (14 - 16 May).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels during the period. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (14 - 16
May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to remain at background levels for the next three days (14 - 16
May).
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions continued at nominal levels with solar wind speeds
ranging from approximately 320 km/s to 350 km/s. A slight increase in
total field measurements were observed during the period from 1 nT to 5
nT with the Bz component between +/- 5 nT. Phi angle switched from
mostly negative (towards) to a positive (away) orientation by
approximately 13/1700 UTC.
.Forecast...
A minor enhancement in the solar wind is expected near the end of day
one (14 May) into day two (15 May) due to a recurrent positive-polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). On day three (16 May) solar
wind conditions are expected to return to nominal levels.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the rest
of the UTC day on day one (14 May) as a CH HSS is expected to become
geoeffective by late in the day to early on day two (15 May). Quiet to
unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are expected on day
two. By day three (16 May), quiet to unsettled conditions are expected
as CH HSS effects diminish.