home
***
CD-ROM
|
disk
|
FTP
|
other
***
search
/
ftp.sec.noaa.gov
/
2014.05.ftp.sec.noaa.gov.tar
/
ftp.sec.noaa.gov
/
pub
/
forecasts
/
discussion
/
05140030forecast_discussion.txt
< prev
next >
Wrap
Text File
|
2014-05-13
|
3KB
|
63 lines
:Product: 05140030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels with only a few C-class flares from
Regions 2060 (S15E08, Dac/beta-gamma) and 2056 (N05W23, Esc/beta). The
largest flare was a long-duration C6/1f at 13/2224 UTC from Region 2056,
which showed minor spot development during the period. Slight growth was
observed in Region 2060. A new region was observed developing in the
northeast quadrant of the solar disk. The rest of the active regions
were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass
ejections were observed during the period.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (14 - 16 May).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit increased
to moderate levels during the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (14 - 16
May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to remain at background levels for the next three days (14 - 16
May).
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated nominal background conditions through
the period. Solar wind speed decreased during the period from just over
410 km/s to around 325 km/s. Total field ranged from 1 nT to 4 nT with
the Bz component between +/- 2 nT. Phi angle was in a predominately
negative (towards) sector throughout most of the period before switching
to a positive (away) orientation at approximately 13/1700 UTC.
.Forecast...
An minor enhancement in the solar wind is expected near the end of day
one (14 May) into day two (15 May) due to a recurrent positive-polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). On day three (16 May) solar
wind conditions are expected to return to nominal levels.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet during the first part of
day one (14 May) becoming unsettled at the end due to the onset of a CH
HSS. Continued CH HSS effects are expected on day two (15 May) resulting
in predominately unsettled levels with isolated active conditions. Quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (16 May) as the impact
of the CH HSS subsides.