home
***
CD-ROM
|
disk
|
FTP
|
other
***
search
/
ftp.sec.noaa.gov
/
2014.05.ftp.sec.noaa.gov.tar
/
ftp.sec.noaa.gov
/
pub
/
forecasts
/
discussion
/
05070030forecast_discussion.txt
< prev
next >
Wrap
Text File
|
2014-05-06
|
3KB
|
68 lines
:Product: 05070030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was moderate. The largest solar events of the period were
two M-class flares, the first an M1/Sf flare observed at 06/0903 UTC,
and the second an M1/Sf at 06/2209 UTC. Both appeared to be from Region
2051 (S09W92, Dac/beta-gamma-delta), now just beyond the western limb.
Region 2051 was also responsible for a C7/1f flare at 06/0432 UTC, a C4
flare at 06/1735 UTC, and a C6 flare at 06/2253 UTC as it rotated
around the western limb. Region 2055 (N10E53, Dso/beta) and Region 2056
(N05E70, Dko/beta) continued to rotate on to the visible disk. Though
they have not been as active over the past 24 hours, both groups were
responsible for flare activity prior to rotating around the eastern limb
and warrant keeping a close eye on as they continue westward. The
remaining six regions displayed an overall trend of stability or slight
decay and lacked significant flare activity. There were no Earth-
directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected in satellite imagery
during the period.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flare and a slight chance for an X-class
(R3-Strong) flare on day one (07 May). Days two and three (08-09 May)
are expected to be low with a chance for an M-class flare.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous was
at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels during the period (May 07-09). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at back-
ground levels during the period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
ACE data indicated a nominal solar wind environment. IMF Bt was steady
at approximately 5nT throughout the period. IMF Bz was predominantly
positive ranging between 5 nT and -2 nT. The phi angle was oriented in a
predominately positive (away) solar sector with slight variability into
negative territory between 06/1330-1630 UTC.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at nominal levels for day
one (07 May). Days two and three (08-09 May) should see an increase in
solar wind speeds due to the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream (CH HSS).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (07
May) and quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for active
conditions on days two and three (08-09 May), due to the influence of a
recurrent CH HSS.