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05061230forecast_discussion.txt
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2014-05-06
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:Product: 05061230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 06 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 2051 (S09W85,
Dac/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M1/Sf flare (R1 - Minor) at 06/0903
UTC as well as occasional C-class flares as it approached the west limb.
New Region 2056 (N05E75, Eso/beta) produced occasional C-class flares as
it rotated into view, the largest of which was a C8 at 05/1828 UTC.
Minor spot growth was noted in Region 2053 (N09E19, Dso/beta) which
produced an isolated optical subflare. Region 2049 (S07W43,
Dsi/beta/gamma) showed gradual spot and penumbral decay in its
intermediate and trailer portions. There were no Earth-directed coronal
mass ejections (CMEs) observed during the period.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low during May 06 - 08 with a chance
for an M-class flare (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate). There will also be a
slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong) during May 06-07 as
Region 2051 departs the west limb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous was
at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels during the period (May 06-08). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at
background levels during the period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
ACE data indicated the possible onset of a weak positive-polarity
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). IMF Phi data indicated a shift
from a negative-polarity (toward) to a positive-polarity (away) solar
sector during approximately 05/2140 - 2210 UTC. A drop in density and
minor increases in wind speed, IMF Bt, and temperature followed the
sector shift. IMF Bz was mostly southward prior to the sector shift
(maximum southerly deflection -7 nT), then became mostly northward after
the shift.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced during May 06-08
as weak CH HSS effects persist combined with the late May 06 to early
May 07 arrival of the May 03 glancing blow CME.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to (briefly) unsettled
levels on May 06 as weak CH HSS effects persist. A glancing blow CME
from May 03 is expected to arrive late on May 06 to early on May 07
causing quiet to unsettled levels with active conditions likely.
Activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on May 08 as CME
effects persist.