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05040030forecast_discussion.txt
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2014-05-03
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:Product: 05040030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2051 (S09W50,
Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a long-duration C5 flare at 03/0608 UTC,
which was the largest event of the period. This region exhibited slight
growth in the intermediate spot area, as well as slight separation
between the intermediate and leader spots. Region 2049 (S07W07,
Dkc/beta) was the only other region to produce a notable flare, a C1/Sf
at 03/1611 UTC. It remained the largest region in areal coverage, but
began to show signs of slight decay towards the latter half of the
period. Region 2052 (S11E35, Dso/beta) continued to show some
development during the period, though not as rapidly as before. Region
2047 (S17W41, Eko/beta-gamma) exhibited signs of growth and
consolidation in the leader spots as well as continued mixed polarities,
yet showed signs of overall decay. New Region 2053 (N10E50, Bxo/beta)
was numbered as it developed on the visible disk.
An asymmetric coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the long-
duration C5 flare was observed off the west limb in SOHO LASCO C2
imagery beginning at 03/0612 UTC. Initial analysis indicated that there
will be at least some Earth-directed component that should arrive early
to midday on 6 May. An Enlil run was submitted and timing and impacts
may be adjusted as the results of that run are analyzed.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) flare activity for the next three days (04 - 06 May).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels for the next three days (04 - 06 May). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to
remain at background levels for the next three days (04 - 06 May).
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels throughout most of the
period. At approximately 03/1650 UTC, the solar wind environment became
enhanced as the 29 Apr CME appeared to arrive. Solar wind speeds
increased from near 310 km/s at 03/1630 UTC to a peak of 361 km/s at
1856 UTC. Temperature and density also indicated a fairly abrupt
increase coincidental with the wind speed increase. The IMF total field
increased from a steady 3 nT at 03/1600 UTC to 11 nT near 1842 UTC. Phi
angle remained in a negative (towards) orientation throughout the
period.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced for days
one and two (04 - 05 May) as effects from the 29 Apr CME continue.
Depending on the analysis of the Enlil run for yesterdays CME, the
solar wind environment could return to an enhanced state as the next CME
arrives.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day
one (04 May) as the influence of the 29 Apr CME persist. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day two (05 May) and quiet levels on
day three (06 May) as CME effects wane, pending the results of the Enlil
run.