:Product: 05040030forecast_discussion.txt :Issued: 2014 May 04 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2051 (S09W50, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a long-duration C5 flare at 03/0608 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. This region exhibited slight growth in the intermediate spot area, as well as slight separation between the intermediate and leader spots. Region 2049 (S07W07, Dkc/beta) was the only other region to produce a notable flare, a C1/Sf at 03/1611 UTC. It remained the largest region in areal coverage, but began to show signs of slight decay towards the latter half of the period. Region 2052 (S11E35, Dso/beta) continued to show some development during the period, though not as rapidly as before. Region 2047 (S17W41, Eko/beta-gamma) exhibited signs of growth and consolidation in the leader spots as well as continued mixed polarities, yet showed signs of overall decay. New Region 2053 (N10E50, Bxo/beta) was numbered as it developed on the visible disk. An asymmetric coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the long- duration C5 flare was observed off the west limb in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 03/0612 UTC. Initial analysis indicated that there will be at least some Earth-directed component that should arrive early to midday on 6 May. An Enlil run was submitted and timing and impacts may be adjusted as the results of that run are analyzed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flare activity for the next three days (04 - 06 May). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels for the next three days (04 - 06 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels for the next three days (04 - 06 May). Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at background levels throughout most of the period. At approximately 03/1650 UTC, the solar wind environment became enhanced as the 29 Apr CME appeared to arrive. Solar wind speeds increased from near 310 km/s at 03/1630 UTC to a peak of 361 km/s at 1856 UTC. Temperature and density also indicated a fairly abrupt increase coincidental with the wind speed increase. The IMF total field increased from a steady 3 nT at 03/1600 UTC to 11 nT near 1842 UTC. Phi angle remained in a negative (towards) orientation throughout the period. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced for days one and two (04 - 05 May) as effects from the 29 Apr CME continue. Depending on the analysis of the Enlil run for yesterdays CME, the solar wind environment could return to an enhanced state as the next CME arrives. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 May) as the influence of the 29 Apr CME persist. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (05 May) and quiet levels on day three (06 May) as CME effects wane, pending the results of the Enlil run.