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:Product: 0413RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 13 2225 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
13/2017Z from Region 2037 (S10E30). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Apr, 15 Apr,
16 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
413 km/s at 13/2027Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 12/2117Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 12/2146Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Apr, 15 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (16 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Class M 35/40/45
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Apr 137
Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 140/145/145
90 Day Mean 13 Apr 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 016/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 009/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/05
Minor Storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 35/35/05