:Product: 0413RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 13 2225 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
13/2017Z from Region 2037 (S10E30). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Apr, 15 Apr,
16 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
413 km/s at 13/2027Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 12/2117Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 12/2146Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Apr, 15 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (16 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Class M    35/40/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Apr 137
Predicted   14 Apr-16 Apr 140/145/145
90 Day Mean        13 Apr 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr  016/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr  014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr  009/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/05
Minor Storm           10/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    35/35/05