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:Product: 0408RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr,
11 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 500 km/s at
08/0046Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/0922Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/1127Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Apr, 10 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (11 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Apr 132
Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 08 Apr 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 007/007-007/007-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/05