:Product: 0408RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr,
11 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 500 km/s at
08/0046Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/0922Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/1127Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Apr, 10 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (11 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Apr 132
Predicted   09 Apr-11 Apr 135/135/135
90 Day Mean        08 Apr 155

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr  007/007-007/007-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/05