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:Product: 0323RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Mar 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
23/0348Z from Region 2014 (S14E20). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Mar, 25 Mar,
26 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 525 km/s at
23/0044Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/2129Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/1746Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (24 Mar, 26 Mar)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (25 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 157
Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 155/155/160
90 Day Mean 23 Mar 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 009/010-008/008-011/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/30
Minor Storm 05/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/30
Major-severe storm 30/20/40