:Product: 0323RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Mar 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
23/0348Z from Region 2014 (S14E20). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Mar, 25 Mar,
26 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 525 km/s at
23/0044Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/2129Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/1746Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (24 Mar, 26 Mar)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (25 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Mar 157
Predicted   24 Mar-26 Mar 155/155/160
90 Day Mean        23 Mar 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  009/010-008/008-011/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/30
Minor Storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    30/20/40