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:Product: 0319RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Mar 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
19/0734Z from Region 2010 (S15E39). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar,
22 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 365 km/s at
19/1819Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 18/2134Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/2234Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar, 22
Mar).
III. Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M 40/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 149
Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 150/145/145
90 Day Mean 19 Mar 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 010/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05