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:Product: 0318RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Mar 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
18/1533Z from Region 2010 (S14E50). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar,
21 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at
18/1634Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 18/2001Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1718Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar, 21
Mar).
III. Event probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
Class M 40/40/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Mar 138
Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 18 Mar 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 005/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05