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:Product: 0305RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Mar 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/0210Z from Region 1991 (S24W25). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
501 km/s at 05/1654Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/2312Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/2135Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
04/2205Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 117 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Mar, 07 Mar) and quiet to
active levels on day three (08 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 149
Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 145/140/140
90 Day Mean 05 Mar 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 006/005-006/005-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/30
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 05/05/35