:Product: 0305RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Mar 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 05/0210Z from Region 1991 (S24W25). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 501 km/s at 05/1654Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/2312Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/2135Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 04/2205Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 117 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Mar, 07 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Mar). III. Event probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar Class M 60/60/60 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Mar 149 Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 05 Mar 160 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 006/005-006/005-009/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/30 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/30 Major-severe storm 05/05/35