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1994-11-03
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INTERNATIONAL TELECOMMUNICATION UNION
ITU-T RECOMMENDATION SUMMARY
Rec. No. : E.506
Title : Forecasting international traffic
Study Group : II - Network Operation
Version : Revised
Date of adoption : 1992
Notes :
Recommendation E.506 is the first in a series of three Recommendations
that cover international telecommunications forecasting.
In the operation and administration of the international telephone
network, proper and successful development depends to a large degree
upon estimates for the future. Accordingly, for the planning of
equipment and circuit provision and of telephone plant investments, it
is necessary that Administrations forecast the traffic which the
network will carry. In view of the heavy capital investments in the
international network, the economic importance of the most reliable
forecast is evident.
The purpose of Recommendation E.506 is to give guidance on some of the
prerequisites for forecasting international telecommunications
traffic. Base data, not only traffic and call data but also economic,
social and demographic data, are of vital importance for forecasting.
These data series may be incomplete; strategies are recommended for
dealing with missing data. Different forecasting approaches are
presented including direct and composite methods, matrix forecasting,
and top down and bottom up procedures.
Recommendation E.507 provides guidelines for building forecasting
models and contains an overview of various forecasting techniques.
Recommendation E.508 covers the forecasting of new international
telecommunications services.
To order the complete text of this Recommendation, please use the
Order Form for ITU-T Recommendations. An electronic version of this
form is available on ITUDOC (Winword: UPI=ITU-5265; ASCII: UPI=ITU-2488).