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***************************************** * * * NFL FORECASTER for DOS Version 2.0d * * * ***************************************** Copyright (c) 1994 by George Tylutki Association of Shareware Professionals Member 100% Cotton Software RR 1 Box 1622 Hop Bottom, PA 18824 717-289-4019 INTRODUCTION ============== To predict the winners of football games, you must rank the opposing teams; some teams must be better than others. A number of elements may be taken into account, including yards gained passing and rushing, average yards per down, quarterback ranking, and home field advantage. However, ONLY TWO THINGS REALLY MATTER: (1) a team's win/loss record which in turn depends upon (2) the number of points scored by and against that team. A winning team must win games and to do this it must score more points than its opponent. USING ONLY SCORES, NFL Forecaster assigns each NFL team an offense and defense ranking and a total ranking (offense and defense combined). Based on these rankings Forecaster predicts winners of games and the point spreads. In addition, Forecaster performs a number of other functions such as maintaining various statistics and printing several types of reports. IT ONLY TAKES 10 MINUTES A WEEK TO ENTER THIS WEEK'S SCORES AND OBTAIN NEXT WEEK'S FORECASTS. Over the past ten seasons, FORECASTER has correctly predicted winners 62% of the time and spreads 54% of the time. Although this does not equal the percentages of some sports handicappers, it should be noted that Forecaster predicted winners and spreads for 93.3% of the games (only 150 of 2,076 games were too close to call), not just Monday night games or "5-star specials." NFL Forecaster usually picks more winners than the handicappers and regularly predicts more spreads correctly than the Las Vegas odds-makers. Forecaster picks winners and predicts point spreads; it does not try to "beat the spread." For example, let us assume that the odds-makers have predicted that San Diego will beat the Raiders NFL Forecaster for DOS 2 by two points. If you pick San Diego and they win by two (23- 21), you lose; the odds-makers win because San Diego (and, therefore, you) did not beat the spread. However, if Forecaster predicts San Diego will beat the Raiders by two points and they do, then Forecaster "wins"; it correctly predicted the point spread (two or more points). Forecaster uses only scores to rank teams and it ranks them objectively. Therefore, it cannot take into account that the Raiders are very good on Monday night or that a quarterback broke his arm during practice, but you can. Forecaster is like a personal odds-maker; it doesn't bet, but it will tell you who will probably win, by how much, and why (it shows the rankings it has assigned to each team). NFL Forecaster is RECREATIONAL SOFTWARE: any interest and pleasure associated with the program is derived from using the program and NOT from any results which might accrue from using its forecasts. It is NOT intended to be used as an aid to placing bets and NO claim is made that it will make you a winner, although the accuracy of its forecasts is greater than from chance predictions (more accurate than flipping a coin). NFL Forecaster was written using Borland Pascal 7.0. Borland Pascal is a registered trademark of Borland International. MS- DOS is a registered trademark of Microsoft Corporation. Windows is a trademark of Microsoft Corporation. "Data" is considered a collective noun taking a singular verb. NFL Forecaster for DOS 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS =================== Introduction................................... 1 Table of Contents.............................. 3 Installation................................... 5 Minimum Requirements......................... 5 Installation................................. 5 Printing Documentation....................... 6 Help........................................... 7 Overview....................................... 7 Running NFL Forecaster......................... 9 Quitting NFL Forecaster........................ 9 Annual Update Disk............................. 9 Why Register NFL Forecaster?.................. 10 Warranty, License, Support.................... 11 What Is Shareware?............................ 13 What Is ASP?.................................. 14 Catching Up................................... 14 Playoff Games................................. 15 Interpreting Forecasts........................ 16 Backups....................................... 21 Reconstructing MAIN-DTA.NFL................... 21 File Formats.................................. 22 MAIN-DTA.NFL................................ 22 weekly archive files........................ 22 FCAST.CFG................................... 23 SCHEDULE.NFL................................ 23 Error Messages................................ 23 Miscellaneous................................. 26 NFL Average Points Per Game................... 26 COMMAND REFERENCE............................. 27 1. File....................................... 28 1.1 Open.................................... 28 1.2 Save As................................. 29 1.3 Print................................... 30 1.3.1 Spreads............................. 31 1.3.2 Team Rankings....................... 31 1.3.3 Category Rankings................... 31 1.3.4 Division Rankings................... 32 1.3.5 Archive Data........................ 32 1.3.6 Schedule............................ 32 1.4 DOS Shell............................... 32 1.5 Exit.................................... 32 2. Quick...................................... 32 3. View....................................... 34 3.1 Spreads................................. 35 3.2 Team Rankings........................... 35 3.3 Division Rankings....................... 35 3.4 Category Rankings....................... 36 NFL Forecaster for DOS 4 3.5 Restore Layout.......................... 36 3.6 Save Layout............................. 36 3.7 Average Points.......................... 37 3.8 Archive Data............................ 37 3.9 Schedule................................ 37 3.10 Calendar............................... 38 4. Sort....................................... 38 5. Options.................................... 39 5.1 View.................................... 39 5.1.1 Tile Windows........................ 39 5.1.1.1 Tile Vertically................. 39 5.1.1.2 Tile Horizontally............... 39 5.1.2 Turn Shadows ON/OFF................. 39 5.1.3 Toggle Video Mode................... 40 5.1.4 Colors.............................. 40 5.2 Print................................... 41 5.2.1 Printer Setup....................... 41 5.2.2 Title of Reports.................... 42 5.2.3 Spreads Initials.................... 42 5.3 General................................. 42 5.3.1 Highlight Rows...................... 42 5.3.2 Turn Sound ON/OFF................... 42 5.3.3 Names............................... 42 5.3.3.1 Use City Names.................. 42 5.3.3.2 Use Team Names.................. 42 5.3.4 NFLAPPG............................. 43 5.4 Seasonal................................ 43 5.4.1 Zero MAIN-DTA.NFL................... 43 5.4.2 Create New Schedule................. 44 5.5 Save.................................... 45 6. Slow....................................... 46 6.1 Manually Enter Scores................... 47 6.2 Manually Forecast Spreads............... 47 7. Window..................................... 48 7.1 Tile.................................... 48 7.2 Cascade................................. 48 7.3 Close All............................... 48 7.4 Size/Move............................... 48 7.5 Zoom.................................... 48 7.6 Switch.................................. 48 7.7 Previous................................ 49 7.8 Close................................... 49 8. Help....................................... 49 8.1 Help on Forecaster Help................. 49 8.2--8.9.................................... 49 8.10 About.................................. 49 8.11 Print Manual........................... 49 8.12 Print Registration Form................ 49 Registration Form............................. 51 NFL Forecaster for DOS 5 INSTALLATION ============== MINIMUM REQUIREMENTS NFL Forecaster requires DOS 3.0 or later, -------------------- 1 disk drive with 550K free space, and 384K free computer memory (RAM). A color monitor and hard disk are recommended. A printer is necessary to print reports. INSTALLATION Forecaster's setup program makes NO changes to your ------------ AUTOEXEC.BAT or CONFIG.SYS files and it does not change your PATH statement (or any other environment variable). You can uninstall Forecaster simply by deleting the files installed by Forecaster setup. DO NOT INSTALL FORECASTER FOR DOS IN THE SAME DIRECTORY AS FORECASTER FOR WINDOWS. Setup will correctly install Forecaster from the self-extracting file (IDNFL20.EXE) or from the group of files (already extracted from IDNFL20,EXE) and from one drive and/or directory to another (that is, from a:\ to c:\fcast or from c:\temp to c:\sports or from c:\fcast to c:\fcast). If you have downloaded NFL Forecaster from a BBS, you must first unzip the file ODNFL20.ZIP using PKUNZIP.EXE in order to extract IDNFL20.EXE, SETUP.EXE, README.1ST and some other files. Log on to the drive and directory that contains IDNFL20.EXE and SETUP.EXE. For example, at the DOS prompt you might type "a:/" and press the enter key if the Forecaster files were on a disk in your a: drive. Then type "setup" and press the enter key. Setup will ask you to enter a source and destination directory. The default destination directory is "c:\fcast". Setup will extract the files from IDNFL20.EXE and copy them to the destination directory you have chosen. You can choose to install Forecaster for a color or monochrome display. If you choose color installation, Setup will rename COLOR.CFG to FCAST.CFG. If you choose monochrome installation, Setup will rename MONOCHRM.CFG to FCAST.CFG. COLOR.CFG and MONOCHRM.CFG are identical except for the display values. Options are always saved to FCAST.CFG, so you might want to make backup copies of both .CFG files to make it easier to later move Forecaster from a color to a monochrome system or vice versa. FCAST.CFG, FCAST.HLP, SCHEDULE.NFL and MAIN-DTA.NFL must be in the same directory as FCAST.EXE or the directory in which they are placed must be in your DOS PATH statement (see your DOS manual) in order for Forecaster to find them. Forecaster first looks in the current directory, then the startup directory and then in the directories in your PATH statement. NFL Forecaster for DOS 6 Printing the Documentation You can print this manual by choosing -------------------------- Help/Print Manual from the Forecaster menu. You can also print this manual by typing at the DOS prompt "copy fcast.doc prn" which will copy the documentation file to your printer. Finally, you can print this document (and the other text files, such as readme.1st) using almost any word processing program or text editor. They are plain ASCII files with no embedded formatting commands. The Forecaster manual is about 50 pages long and it is contained in the on-line help so you can also read it while running Forecaster. Be sure to read the file "README.1st"; it contains the latest information, additions and corrections. NFL Forecaster for DOS 7 HELP ====== NFL Forecaster provides several types of help: a complete manual; status-line hints; and a complete context-sensitive on-line help system accessed via the Help menu and the F1 key. You can obtain on-line help via Forecaster's Help menu. Highlight the menu item of the topic you are interested in and press the Enter key. Whenever any Forecaster menu item is highlighted, the status line at the bottom of the screen will provide a "hint" about that item's function. Also, whenever a menu item is highlighted, you can press F1 to access Forecaster's on-line help; a complete explanation of that menu item will be displayed. In order to obtain on-line help while running Forecaster, the file FCAST.HLP must be in the same directory as FCAST.EXE. This entire document is contained in FCAST.HLP and, thus, is available on-line while running Forecaster. While viewing on-line help, you can move or resize the help window and scroll through the help text using the keyboard direction keys or a mouse. In the on-line text are topic links -- highlighted words and phrases. If you move the cursor to the link word or phrase and press Enter (or double-click the mouse), the on-line help will jump to and display the text for that topic. Each topic has browse links (<< >>). The right link will display the next topic in the manual and the left will display the previous. Using the browse links is like turning pages in the manual. While viewing the on-line help, you can press Alt+F1 to display the previous topic (up to 10 previous topics). Thus, it is easy to follow links from one topic to another and find your way back to where you began. Also, while viewing the on-line help, you can press Shift+F1 to display the on-line Table of Contents. Most of NFL Forecaster's dialog boxes contain a help button which you can press to get help at that point. OVERVIEW ========== Each week you enter the scores for the games played and Forecaster calculates new rankings for each team. Then you indicate the teams that will be playing in the next week's games and Forecaster predicts the winners and spreads. The new rankings must be saved to the MAIN-DTA.NFL file so that the rankings can be used the next week. MAIN-DTA.NFL is reused each week; last NFL Forecaster for DOS 8 week's rankings are read into the computer's memory and used to compute new rankings which are then written back to MAIN-DTA.NFL. Every week's rankings should also be saved to weekly archive files which are not updated each week. This is done automatically if you use the Quick function. The archive files contain the rankings of a given week, the scores of that week (except the first week of the season) and the forecasts for the following week (except the last week of the season). These files may be used to find a ranking, score, or forecast of any past week. They can also be used to reconstruct MAIN-DTA.NFL if it should become corrupt. There are two ways to obtain spread forecasts and enter scores using NFL Forecaster: Quick or Slow. For more information, see the Quick and Slow sections. The easiest way to use NFL Forecaster is to use Quick which takes you step-by-step through the process of entering scores, forecasting spreads, saving data and printing reports. You choose the week that you want predictions for and Forecaster reads the NFL schedule from a disk file, displays the teams which have played each other and requests that you enter the scores. It then calculates the forecasts for the next week, saves the new rankings, scores and spreads to disk, prints the reports you choose and displays the rankings in the view windows of your choice. Forecaster has several other functions and is highly configurable: you can open six different view windows; print five different reports; print or view the NFL schedule; sort the rankings eight different ways; use team or city names; add row highlighting; add titles to the printed reports; and much more. At the beginning of each season you need to alter two files. In MAIN-DTA.NFL, the number of points a team has scored, its win, loss and tie record and other data must be set to zero for the new season. Also, SCHEDULE.NFL must be updated with the new schedule. (See the section "Options/Seasonal.") These files can be modified using a word processing program; however, Forecaster provides functions for both of these tasks. You can also purchase an annual update disk which contains MAIN-DTA.NFL, SCHEDULE.NFL and the latest version of NFL Forecaster (see the section "Annual Update Disk"). NFL Forecaster for DOS 9 RUNNING NFL FORECASTER ======================== Log on to the drive and directory that contain the installed Forecaster files and type "fcast". See your DOS manual for information about placing the Forecaster directory in your PATH statement so that you can run Forecaster from any other directory. A title and registration reminder dialog box is displayed while NFL Forecaster loads and initializes. When the main menu is displayed, you can press the "OK" button to continue (the button is inactive until then). The title dialog box of the registered version of Forecaster does not contain a registration reminder and will close itself automatically when Forecaster has loaded. Forecaster will run in a DOS box under Microsoft Windows 3.0 or later. Setup places a Forecaster icon in the destination directory; you can use Windows Program Manager to place the icon on your desktop so that you can run NFL Forecaster for DOS by clicking on the icon. (Cotton Software also published a Windows version of NFL Forecaster that takes advantage of Windows superior display and printing capabilities.) QUITTING NFL FORECASTER ========================= You quit Forecaster by choosing Exit from the File menu or by pressing Alt-X. If you have loaded a file (either from the File menu or via Quick), entered scores and thus changed the rankings and not saved the new rankings to disk, Forecaster will warn you that you are about to quit without saving the new rankings. At this point you can choose to save the data before quitting and Forecaster will open a Save As dialog box for you. You can also choose to quit without saving the data (sometimes you may want to enter some scores to see how the rankings would have changed if team x had won instead of lost and do not want to save the new rankings). Also, you can choose to cancel in which case you are simply returned to Forecaster. ANNUAL UPDATE DISK ==================== Since NFL Forecaster uses game scores, current rankings and accumulated and average points for and points against to compute new rankings and to calculate point spreads, it is necessary at the beginning of each season to modify MAIN-DTA.NFL so that these and the number of wins, losses and ties and the win/loss NFL Forecaster for DOS 10 percentage of each team are set to zero. Also, in order to use the Quick function, a new schedule file must be created. NFL Forecaster provides functions for zeroing MAIN-DTA.NFL and for creating a new schedule (SCHEDULE.NFL) at the beginning of each season (see the "Options/Seasonal" section). Many users prefer to purchase an annual update disk instead of using these functions. The update disk contains a zeroed MAIN-DTA.NFL file, a new SCHEDULE.NFL file and the latest version of NFL Forecaster. All registered owners of Forecaster are notified when the update disks become available (usually around July 1). In the past the cost has been $7.00 (including shipping and handling). When you register Forecaster, you receive a coupon worth 25% off the price of your first annual update disk. Annual update disks must be ordered directly from 100% Cotton Software. WHY SHOULD I REGISTER NFL FORECASTER? ======================================= NFL Forecaster is a copyrighted shareware product; it is not freeware or public domain. You can try it before you buy it and you are encouraged to give copies to others (see "Warranty/ License/Support" for conditions). If you use it after 30 days, you must register it. When you register NFL Forecaster, you will receive: 1. the latest version of the program (with MAIN-DTA.NFL current as of shipping day) which does not have any request- for-registration dialog boxes; 2. unlimited, life-time, free (not toll-free) telephone and mail support; 3. complete set of archive files: 10 years of scores, spreads & rankings; 4. 25% discount coupon: toward purchase of annual update disk ($5.25); 5. $2.00 coupon: toward registration of any other Cotton Software product (see PRODUCTS.DOC); 6. JCSM Shareware CD certificate: thousands of programs for $9.95 + S&H (good until 12/31/94); 7. and, of course, the appreciation of programmers who strive to produce inexpensive, quality, useful and entertaining software. 8. Teachers are over-worked and underpaid. Therefore, any teacher who registers directly to Cotton Software using his or her school letterhead will receive a $3.00 rebate check. You can register NFL Forecaster by sending a check or money order for $20.00 (US dollars) to: 100% Cotton Software NFL Forecaster for DOS 11 RR 1 Box 1622 Hop Bottom, PA 18824 Orders outside of the United States should add $3.00 for S&H. There is a registration form at the end of this manual and you can print a registration form by choosing Help/Print Registration Form from the Forecaster menu. Credit card orders (MC, Visa, Amex, Discover) may be made through: Public (software) Library PHONE: 800-2424-PsL 713-524-6394 FAX: 713-524-6398 CIS EMAIL: 71355,470 MAIL: Public (software) Library PO Box 35705 Houston, TX 77235-5705 Your order will be processed more quickly and efficiently if you refer to item #11343. Be sure to tell the operator that you want the REGISTERED version of NFL Forecaster for DOS. The above PsL numbers are for ORDERS ONLY. Any questions about ------------------------------------------ the status of the shipment of the order, refunds, registration options, product details, technical support, volume discounts, dealer pricing, site licenses, etc. must be directed to 100% Cotton Software (717-289-4019). To insure that you get the latest version, PsL will notify us the day of your order and we will ship the product directly to you. WARRANTY, LICENSE, SUPPORT ============================ User Groups, Computer Clubs, Disk Vendors and Distributors, Subscription Services, Disk-of-the-Month Clubs, BBS SYSOPS, and other distributors should refer to VENDINFO.DIZ for complete information relating to them. Warranty The author believes that NFL Forecaster is able to do -------- what its documentation says it can do. Every good- faith effort has been made to remove "bugs" from this program and to make the user aware of its limitations. However, it is mathematically impossible to prove a computer program correct. Therefore, users of NFL Forecaster must accept this disclaimer of warranty: NFL FORECASTER IS SUPPLIED AS IS. TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMITTED BY APPLICABLE LAW, THE AUTHOR DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND OF FITNESS FOR ANY PURPOSE. NEITHER THE AUTHOR NOR ANYONE ELSE WHO HAS BEEN INVOLVED IN THE CREATION, PRODUCTION, OR DELIVERY OF THIS SOFTWARE SHALL BE HELD NFL Forecaster for DOS 12 LIABLE FOR ANY DAMAGES, INCLUDING ANY LOSS OF PROFIT, DATA OR OTHER SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES OR SIMILAR CLAIMS ARISING OUT OF THE USE OF THIS PROGRAM. License Terms Applicable To All Use And Distribution ---------------------------------------------------- NFL Forecaster and all associated software and documentation (the package) are copyrighted products. The NFL Forecaster package is comprised of all files contained within the ODNFL20.xxx compressed archive file. All rights not expressly granted here are reserved to the author. The use or distribution of this package is expressly prohibited, except as authorized by the terms of this agreement. The NFL Forecaster package may not be copied, rented, leased, sold, modified, decompiled, disassembled, or otherwise reverse engineered except as provided in this agreement. License Terms Applicable To Trial Use For Evaluation ---------------------------------------------------- You are granted a limited license to use this program for evaluation purposes for a period of 30 days. If you find NFL Forecaster useful and continue to use it after 30 days, you must make a registration payment to 100% Cotton Software. See above for registration fee, benefits, addresses and phone numbers. License Terms Applicable To Use Of Registered Version ----------------------------------------------------- The registration fee will license one copy of NFL Forecaster for use on any one computer at any one time. You must treat this software just like a book. That is, this software may be used by any number of people and may be freely moved from one computer location to another, so long as there is no possibility of it being used at one location while it's being used at another (just as a book cannot be read by two persons at the same time at two different locations). If more than one copy of NFL Forecaster is used on more than one computer at the same time, each copy of NFL Forecaster must be individually registered or a special license must be obtained. Low-cost site, multiple-copy, and school licenses are available. Write or call for more information. Limited Distribution License Permission is granted to ---------------------------- individuals charging no fees, and to BBSs, User Groups, Mail-Order Disk Vendors, CD-ROM publishers, and BBS File-Distribution Networks regardless of fees, to distribute the NFL Forecaster package provided they distribute a complete and unaltered copy of the NFL Forecaster package and they make no claim of ownership of the package. Distribution by other channels, and distribution of modified versions, are also allowed, but only under the terms of the VENDINFO data record incorporated in VENDINFO.DIZ. Any NFL Forecaster for DOS 13 distribution satisfying all the distribution requirements expressed in that data record is hereby authorized. Permission to distribute the NFL Forecaster package may not be transferred, assigned, sold or franchised. Each vendor wishing to distribute the NFL Forecaster package must independently satisfy the terms of this limited distribution license. The author may revoke any permissions granted here at any time by notifying you in writing. Certain files of the NFL Forecaster package are updated every year to keep the package current with changes in the National Football League (for example, the schedule). If you have a version that is over twelve (12) months old, contact the author to ensure that you have the latest version. Version 2.0d of NFL Forecaster for DOS was released 15 August 1994. Support Registered owners of NFL Forecaster receive free support ------- for the lifetime of the product. You can call (not toll-free) 717-289-4019 or send a letter to the above address. WHAT IS SHAREWARE? ==================== Shareware is a distribution method, not a type of software. Shareware distribution gives you a chance to try software before buying it. If you try a Shareware program and continue using it, you are expected to register. Individual programs differ on details: some request registration while others require it and some specify a maximum trial period. The benefits of registration range from the basic right to continue using the software to an updated program with printed manual. Copyright laws apply to both Shareware and commercial software, and the copyright holder retains all rights, with a few specific exceptions as stated below. Shareware authors are accomplished programmers, just like commercial authors, and their programs are of comparable quality. The main difference is in the method of distribution. The shareware author specifically grants the right to copy and distribute the software, either to all or sundry or to a specific group. For example, some authors require written permission before a commercial disk vendor may copy their Shareware. You should find software that suits your needs and pocketbook, whether it's commercial or Shareware. The Shareware system makes fitting your needs easier, because you can try before you buy. And because the overhead is low, prices are low also. Shareware has the ultimate money-back guarantee: if you don't use the product, you don't pay for it. But if you do use it, you must pay for it. NFL Forecaster for DOS 14 WHAT IS ASP? ============== This program was produced by a member of the Association of Shareware Professionals (ASP), an industry association founded in 1987 to which authors and vendors of Shareware programs belong. As a user of Shareware, you benefit from ASP activities. ASP promotes broad distribution of Shareware so that ASP Shareware programs can continue to be reasonably priced and easily obtained. ASP sets and maintains programming, marketing and support standards that members must follow; thus, you can be sure that ASP Shareware programs are of high quality, marketing is honest and support meets minimum standards. For example, the evaluation copy of an ASP Shareware program may not be limited (crippled) in any way; members must respond to every registration; members must provide technical support for their products for at least 90 days from the date of registration. Should an ASP member move or obtain a new telephone number, you can locate him or her through the ASP Executive Director, 545 Grover Road, Muskegon, MI 49442 USA, CompuServe 72050,1433, FAX 616-788-2765, Voice 616-788-5131. ASP wants to make sure that the shareware principle works for you. If you are unable to resolve a shareware-related problem with an ASP member by contacting the member directly, ASP may be able to help. The ASP Ombudsman can help you resolve a dispute or problem with an ASP member, but does not provide technical support for members' products. Please write to the ASP Ombudsman at 545 Grover Road, Muskegon, MI 49442-9427 USA, FAX 616-788-2765 or send a CompuServe message via CompuServe Mail to ASP Ombudsman 70007,3536. You can obtain "The Shareware Compendium," a catalog of ASP Shareware from many bookstores and directly from the ASP offices. CATCHING UP ============= If you obtained NFL Forecaster after the season began, you need to "catch up" -- bring the main data file (MAIN-DTA.NFL) up to date (see the "Overview" section). You will need a copy of the NFL game scores from the beginning of the season to the present. MAIN-DTA.NFL contains the rankings for the twenty-eight teams as of the end of the previous season before any playoff games (points for, points against, win, loss, and tie have been zeroed). 1. First, make a backup copy of your disks and install NFL Forecaster. NFL Forecaster for DOS 15 2. Run Forecaster. 3. Choose Quick from the main menu. 4. In the list box choose "Enter week 1 scores & forecast week 2 spreads." 5. Enter the scores. Forecaster will update the rankings and calculate the spreads for week 2. 6. Press the "No" button when Forecaster asks if you would like to forecast spreads for some non-scheduled games. 7. Press the "Yes" button when Forecaster asks if it should save the updated rankings to disk. 8. Press the "Yes" or "No" button when Forecaster asks if it should print the reports. 9. Press the "Yes" or "No" button when Forecaster asks if it should open the view windows. 10. Repeat steps 3 to 9 until you have entered the scores for the last week that NFL games were played. Of course, at step 4 you must choose the appropriate weeks. When you are done, you will have one or more weekly archive files and MAIN-DTA.NFL will contain the latest rankings and statistics. You can then use Quick each week to update the rankings and obtain spread forecasts. If you want a complete printed record of the predictions, you should choose "Forecast week 1 spreads" the first time you come to step 4; Forecaster will skip to step 6. PLAYOFF GAMES =============== For the playoff games and the Super Bowl, you must use Slow/Enter Scores and Slow/Forecast Spreads because Quick cannot use the schedule file to get scores and forecast spreads (the playoff teams are unknown when the schedule is constructed). For each playoff game and the Super Bowl, 1. use File/Open to load MAIN-DTA.NFL; 2. use Slow/Enter Scores to enter each of the scores; 3. use File/Save As to save MAIN-DTA.NFL (press the "Yes" button when Forecaster asks if it should replace the current file); NFL Forecaster for DOS 16 4. use Slow/Forecast Spreads to obtain forecasts for the next round of playoff games; 5. use File/Print to print the reports that you desire; 6. and use View to view the rankings. INTERPRETING FORECASTS ======================== In addition to the information in this section, you should also see the section "NFL Average Points Per Game." Over the last 10 seasons, Forecaster declared only 6.7% (150) of all games (2,226) too close to call (even). It attempts to predict a winner and spread for every game, not just "5-star specials" or "this week's picks." Of the 2,076 games (93.3%) it predicted winners for, it was correct 62% of the time and it correctly predicted the spread 54% of the time. Of course, this includes the difficult to predict strike season and many, many close games (1 or 2 point spreads). YEAR-BY-YEAR ACCURACY FOR 10 SEASONS (84-85 TO 93-94) Games Wins Spreads Games Predicted Correctly Correctly Season Predicted Even Predicted Predicted -------------------------------------------------------------- 1984-85 209 15 69% 61% 1985-86 209 15 60% 55% 1986-87 210 14 61% 51% 1987-88 202 8 57% 52% 1988-89 210 14 58% 51% 1989-90 208 16 60% 55% 1990-91 208 16 64% 56% 1991-92 210 14 68% 58% 1992-93 204 20 62% 51% 1993-94 205 19 60% 53% -------------------------------------------------------------- Averages 93.3% 6.8% 62% 54% As the season progresses, Forecaster tends to become more accurate in its predictions; changes in coaches and players, offensive and defensive systems, and even locations can affect the strengths of teams which are not reflected in the start-of- season rankings (which are carried over from the previous season). In general, the larger the spread Forecaster predicts, the more likely it is to be correct. The same is true for human forecasters. If Tampa Bay plays San Francisco, we (and NFL Forecaster for DOS 17 Forecaster) will probably predict that San Francisco will win by 2 or 3 touchdowns. Our (and Forecaster's) prediction is more likely to be correct than when we predict that one of two closely-ranked teams will win by a field goal. FORECASTER ACCURACY FOR 10 SEASONS (84-85 TO 93-94) If Forecaster it correctly it correctly predicted a predicted predicted spread of the winner the spread ------------------------------------------------- 1.0 to 1.9 55% 53% 2.0 to 4.9 61% 58% 5.0 to 5.9 69% 46% 6.0 to 8.9 74% 58% 9.0 to 11.9 69% 42% 12.0 to 12.9 75% 38% 13.0 and above 78% 44% all spreads/games 62% 54% There are, of course, seasonal averages. For example, for the 86-87 season Forecaster predicted winners in the 6 to 8.9 point range with 88% accuracy but with only 67% accuracy for the 88-89 season. The 87-88 strike season brings down the overall accuracy about .4%. There is very good correlation between the win/loss/tie records and the average of Forecaster's total rankings (a measure of offense and defensive strength), except for Minnesota and Cincinnati (probably due to their strong offenses) and the LA Raiders (probably due to sheer contrariness). Correlation is nowhere near as good between Forecaster's rankings and average points scored by a team (a measure of offense alone) and average points scored against a team (a measure of defense alone). NFL Forecaster for DOS 18 Win/Loss/Tie Record for 10 Seasons (84-85 to 93-94) Compared to Forecaster's Average Total Ranking, Average Number of Points Scored by Each Team Per Game, and Average Number of Points Scored Against Each Team Per Game Win Average Average Average Loss Total Points+ Points- Team Tie Ranking Per Game Per Game ---------------------------------------------------------------- San Francisco .758 ( 1) 128.2 ( 1) 26.3 ( 1) 16.0 ( 1) Chicago .642 ( 2) 114.6 ( 2) 20.9 ( 9) 16.6 ( 2) NY Giants .623 ( 3) 110.4 ( 3) 20.5 (10) 17.4 ( 3) Denver .619 ( 4) 108.7 ( 5) 21.7 ( 4) 18.8 ( 5) Washington .616 ( 5) 110.0 ( 4) 22.6 ( 3) 19.0 ( 9) Miami .604 ( 6) 107.0 ( 7) 23.6 ( 2) 21.0 (20) New Orleans .560 ( 7) 107.4 ( 6) 20.5 (11) 18.5 ( 4) LA Raiders .560 ( 8) 101.8 (15) 20.0 (17) 19.2 (10) Philadelphia .541 ( 9) 104.2 (11) 20.2 (13) 19.0 ( 6) Buffalo .535 (10) 104.6 (10) 21.0 ( 8) 19.8 (14) Kansas City .522 (11) 103.3 (13) 20.1 (14) 19.4 (11) Houston .522 (12) 103.3 (12) 21.7 ( 5) 21.1 (21) Minnesota .516 (13) 106.0 ( 9) 21.5 ( 6) 19.6 (12) Pittsburgh .503 (14) 101.7 (16) 19.8 (18) 19.7 (13) Dallas .503 (15) 101.2 (17) 20.1 (15) 20.1 (15) Seattle .497 (16) 101.1 (18) 19.4 (20) 19.0 ( 7) Cleveland .487 (17) 102.2 (14) 19.2 (21) 19.0 ( 8) LA Rams .484 (18) 98.7 (20) 20.5 (12) 21.4 (22) NY Jets .456 (19) 97.3 (21) 19.8 (19) 21.0 (19) Cincinnati .434 (20) 106.9 ( 8) 21.4 ( 7) 22.8 (26) San Diego .428 (21) 98.8 (19) 20.1 (16) 21.0 (18) Green Bay .425 (22) 96.3 (22) 18.9 (22) 20.7 (16) New England .421 (23) 93.6 (23) 17.8 (26) 20.9 (17) Detroit .406 (24) 92.6 (24) 18.6 (23) 22.0 (24) Indianapolis .371 (25) 87.5 (27) 16.2 (28) 21.8 (23) Arizona .362 (26) 90.2 (25) 18.3 (25) 22.6 (25) Atlanta .336 (27) 89.0 (26) 18.4 (24) 23.9 (27) Tampa Bay .270 (28) 83.9 (28) 17.0 (27) 24.5 (28) Other Information That May Help You Pick Winners The following covers the 10 seasons from 84-85 to 94-94 There were only 5 tie games: Philadelphia vs Detroit week 10 84-85 23 points Philadelphia vs Arizona week 14 86-87 10 points Denver vs Green Bay week 2 87-88 17 points Kansas City vs NY Jets week 5 88-89 17 points Kansas City vs Cleveland week 11 89-90 10 points NFL Forecaster for DOS 19 There were only 22 games in which one team scored 50 or more points. The top 10 are: NY Jets 62 Tampa Bay 28 week 11 85-86 Cincinnati 61 Houston 7 week 15 89-90 Houston 58 Cleveland 14 week 14 90-91 Cincinnati 56 Tampa Bay 23 week 8 89-90 Washington 56 Atlanta 17 week 11 91-93 San Francisco 56 Atlanta 17 week 7 92-93 NY Giants 55 Green Bay 24 week 16 86-87 Indianapolis 55 Denver 23 week 9 88-89 San Francisco 55 Detroit 17 week 16 93-94 San Diego 54 Pittsburgh 44 week 14 85-86 There were only 10 games in which the combined score was 75 points or greater: 98 San Diego 54 Pittsburgh 44 week 14 85-86 96 NY Jets 51 Miami 45 week 3 86-87 90 NY Jets 62 Tampa Bay 28 week 11 85-86 79 NY Giants 55 Green Bay 24 week 16 86-87 79 Cincinnati 56 Tampa Bay 23 week 8 89-90 78 San Diego 50 Miami 28 week 1 86-87 78 Indianapolis 51 Houston 27 week 12 87-88 78 Indianapolis 55 Denver 23 week 9 88-89 76 Pittsburgh 52 San Diego 24 week 13 84-85 76 Buffalo 52 Pittsburgh 34 week 2 91-92 The most points scored by a team: NY Jets 62 Tampa Bay 28 week 11 85-86 There were only 4 games in which the spread was 40 or more points: 54 Cincinnati 61 Houston 7 week 15 89-90 51 Cleveland 51 Pittsburgh 0 week 1 89-90 44 San Francisco 51 Minnesota 7 week 15 84-85 44 Houston 58 Cleveland 14 week 14 90-91 The 10 highest Forecaster Total rankings (100 is average) were: 173.2 Buffalo week 4 92-93 172.5 Washington week 3 91-92 172.1 Washington week 3 91-92 171.2 Cleveland week 2 89-90 167.3 Washington week 5 91-92 167.2 Washington weeks 5, 7, 8 91-92 167.1 Washington week 7 91-92 166.9 Washington week 6 91-92 164.5 Chicago week 12 85-86 164.3 Buffalo week 3 92-93 NFL Forecaster for DOS 20 The 10 lowest Forecaster total Rankings (100 is average) were: 36.6 Cleveland week 1 84-85 44.0 Pittsburgh week 1 89-90 46.8 Minnesota week 1 84-85 50.5 Indianapolis week 1 85-86 51.5 Cleveland week 2 85-85 51.6 Indianapolis week 1 85-86 54.3 Indianapolis weeks 4 & 5 86-87 54.9 Indianapolis week 3 86-87 55.3 Detroit week 1 91-92 55.9 Indianapolis week 7 91-92 The 5 top scoring teams (strongest offense) were: 513 Miami 32.1 per game 84-85 485 Washington 30.3 per game 91-92 475 San Francisco 29.7 per game 84-85 467 San Diego 29.2 per game 85-86 459 San Francisco 30.6 per game 87-88 The 8 lowest scoring teams (weakest offense) were: 140 Seattle 8.8 per game 92-93 143 Indianapolis 8.9 per game 91-92 174 Cincinnati 10.9 per game 93-94 179 Indianapolis 11.2 per game 93-94 181 New England 11.3 per game 90-91 196 Arizona 12.3 per game 91-92 199 Tampa Bay 12.4 per game 91-92 200 Buffalo 12.5 per game 85-86 The 8 teams with the best defense (fewest points scored against them) were: 187 Chicago 11.7 per game 86-87 189 NY Giants 11.8 per game 93-94 198 Chicago 12.4 per game 85-86 202 New Orleans 12.6 per game 92-93 210 Chicago 13.1 per game 93-94 211 New Orleans 13.2 per game 91-92 215 Chicago 13.4 per game 88-89 224 Washington 14.0 per game 91-92 The 7 teams with the worst defense (most points scored against them) were: 484 Minnesota 30.3 per game 84-85 462 Cleveland 28.9 per game 90-91 454 Buffalo 28.4 per game 84-85 452 Atlanta 28.3 per game 85-86 446 New England 27.9 per game 90-91 437 Atlanta 27.3 per game 89-90 436 Atlanta 29.1 per game 87-88 NFL Forecaster for DOS 21 There were 108 shutouts. Atlanta and Detroit were shutout in at least one game in 5 of the past 10 seasons. 8 Indianapolis 7 Atlanta 6 Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Green Bay, New England 5 NY Jets, Arizona, Dallas, Tampa Bay, San Diego, Detroit 4 Houston, LA Rams, Denver, Seattle 3 Philadelphia, LA Raiders 2 Buffalo, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Chicago 1 NY Giants, Miami, Washington 0 San Francisco, New Orleans Forecaster uses only scores to rank teams. Therefore, it cannot take into account the facts that the Cowboys are not so good in dark uniforms, that Washington is very good at home or that a star defensive end is holding out for a better contract -- but you can. Combining your knowledge with Forecaster's objective predictions, you have a much better than average chance of predicting winners. BACKUPS ========= You should save each week's data to a backup archive file (on a floppy disk, for example). This can facilitate reconstructing a disk should it go bad (see the section "Reconstructing MAIN- DTA.NFL"). Archive filenames should be easy to decipher. The form used by Forecaster is WEEK-??.yy -- for example, WEEK-03.92 or WEEK-11.95. You could simply save a copy of MAIN-DTA.NFL to a different disk or directory each week, but the file name would give no indication of how many week's data it contained and you would not have backups for all of the weekly archive files. Use File/Save As to save a backup file. Use the various list boxes in the dialog box to set the path to a different disk. Use the file name Forecaster offers as the default or enter the name you have invented. When you press the "OK" button, Forecaster checks whether a file with the same name already exists on the disk. If it does, you are given the opportunity to replace it or cancel. RECONSTRUCTING MAIN-DTA.NFL ============================= The total, offense and defense rankings, points for, points against and other data are saved in the file MAIN-DTA.NFL (see the section "File Formats). Each week this information is read NFL Forecaster for DOS 22 into your computer and after you have entered the latest scores it is used to compute new rankings which are used to forecast spreads. The new rankings and other data are then saved back to MAIN-DTA.NFL. NFL Forecaster cannot function without a valid MAIN-DTA.NFL file. If MAIN-DTA.NFL is deleted or is corrupted, it must be reconstructed. In order to reconstruct MAIN-DTA.NFL, you need only to load the appropriate weekly archive file and save it as MAIN-DTA.NFL. (This is a good reason for making a backup of the weekly archive file on a floppy disk.) For example, let us say that it is the Tuesday morning after the games of the 10th week of the 1994-1995 schedule have been played. When you attempt to use Quick to "Enter week 10 scores & forecast week 11 spreads," you receive an error message that says Forecaster cannot read MAIN-DTA.NFL. After trying several times it becomes clear that MAIN-DTA.NFL is no longer useful, so you need to reconstruct it. The latest weekly archive file on your disk would be WEEK-09.94. Use File/Open to load WEEK-09.94. Use File/Save As to save the data as MAIN-DTA.NFL. That's all there is to reconstructing MAIN- DTA.NFL. Now you could use Quick to "Enter week 10 scores & forecast week 11 spreads." FILE FORMATS ============== SCHEDULE.NFL, MAIN-DTA.NFL and the weekly archive files are ASCII text files. Care must be taken that all data items are included in each file, in the correct order and in the correct format. NFL Forecaster takes care of this for you; you should never have to modify these files. MAIN-DTA.NFL The data file which is loaded and saved each week ------------ (MAIN-DTA.NFL) is identified by the characters "MD" as the first item in the file. This is followed by information concerning each of the 28 NFL teams: total value, offense value, defense value, win/loss/tie percentage, accumulated points scored by the team and against the team, number of wins, losses and ties, and a sort tag indicating the team's ranking as last sorted. A single character sort key is also saved indicating by which category the teams were last sorted. Finally, the average number of points scored by each team per game for the last week is included. Weekly archive files The archive files contain the same -------------------- information as MAIN-DTA.NFL, except that the first item in the file is "AD" indicating the file is an archive data file. In addition, the archive files contain the scores of a given week (except the first week of the season) and the forecasts for the following week (except the last week of the NFL Forecaster for DOS 23 season). These files may be used to find a ranking, score, or forecast of any past week. They can also be used to reconstruct MAIN-DTA.NFL if it should become corrupt. The contents of these files do not change. There should be one archive file for each week of the season. They are normally titled WEEK-xx.yy (where xx = week and yy = year). WEEK-00.yy is the archive file for the first week of the season (when you obtain forecasts, but do not enter scores). Archive files are saved automatically by Quick. The weekly archive files are not compatible with previous versions; scores and spreads are now saved as well as rankings. FCAST.CFG This file contains the various Forecaster --------- configuration values, such as reports titles, display colors, etc. There is no need to modify any item in this file; Forecaster handles reading and writing this file and you can change the values it contains via the Options menu. IN FACT, YOU SHOULD NOT EVEN LOAD THIS FILE INTO A WORD PROCESSING OR EDITOR PROGRAM. IT IS NOT AN ASCII FILE AND DOING SO COULD CORRUPT IT! SCHEDULE.NFL The first line of a schedule file contains the ------------ version number. The current version number is 1.6; earlier 16-week, 17-week and 18-week SCHEDULE.NFL files contained different version numbers. The following lines contain numbers representing participants and dates of each game of the season. The last line of SCHEDULE.NFL indicates the NFL season of the file -- for example, ".94-95". SCHEDULE.NFL is not compatible with previous versions; there are now 17 regular season NFL games instead of 18. ERROR MESSAGES ================ There are a number of messages that Forecaster may issue which are self-explanatory, such as "No reports have been selected for printing." The following is a list of other messages with explanations. Most of these messages are related to reading from and writing to disk. There are many causes for these errors (including bad disks and corrupted DOS); therefore, there may other causes for the errors than those listed below. 1 Not enough memory available to complete operation You may --------------------------------------------------- receive this message when attempting to use Quick, view or print the schedule or reports and at other times. You need to free up some memory by quitting any other programs you have running (including TSRs) or removing drivers from memory. NFL Forecaster for DOS 24 2 Could not open options file Forecaster looks for FCAST.CFG ----------------------------- in the current directory, then the startup directory and then the directories in your DOS PATH statement. If FCAST.CFG is in the Forecaster directory, then it may be corrupt or there may be something wrong with your disk. 3 Error reading options file; it may be corrupt Forecaster reads ----------------------------------------------- FCAST.CFG when it loads options and when it saves options and the windows layout. If there is an error reading the file, there is something wrong with the file or your disk. Try deleting FCAST.CFG and saving options to create a new configuration file. 4 Invalid options file The file Forecaster has found named ---------------------- FCAST.CFG is not a Forecaster configuration file or the file has become corrupt. Try deleting FCAST.CFG and saving options to create a new configuration file. 5 Could not create options file Something is wrong with your ------------------------------- disk. 6 Unable to open/read data file This error may occur when ------------------------------- Forecaster is trying to load MAIN-DTA.NFL or an archive data file or read the old MAIN-DTA.NFL file when you choose Zero Main Data from the Options/Schedule menu. The file may not exist, it may be empty, it may be corrupted, or the DOS path or file name may be invalid. 7 Not an NFL Forecaster data file An attempt was made to load a --------------------------------- file and its internal format is not what Forecaster expects. You have probably chosen the wrong file to load. 9 Unable to open window: not enough memory or invalid window ------------------------------------------------------------ This message may occur with #1. Follow the advice there. 10 Cannot find MAIN-DTA.NFL --------------------------- 11 Cannot find SCHEDULE.NFL Forecaster cannot find the schedule --------------------------- or main data file. Be sure that they are in the Forecaster directory or in a directory in your DOS PATH statement. 12 Wrong schedule file version You have attempted to load an ------------------------------ older schedule file (pre-1994-95 schedule). NFL Forecaster for DOS 25 13 Error reading SCHEDULE.NFL The schedule file is the correct ----------------------------- version, but is incomplete. Copy a good copy of the schedule file to the Forecaster directory. 14 Error reading SCHEDULE.NFL; file is corrupt One or more ---------------------------------------------- values in the schedule file is invalid. Copy a good copy of the schedule file to the Forecaster directory. 15 Unable to open data file --------------------------- 16 Error writing data file These errors may result if a file is -------------------------- locked, if its name is invalid, if the DOS path is invalid and sometimes if the disk is full or corrupt. 18 Error writing options file; it may be corrupt This message ------------------------------------------------ almost certainly indicates that there is something wrong with your disk. 24 Error renaming/deleting data file This error may occur when ------------------------------------ when you choose Options/Seasonal/Zero MAIN-DTA.NFL or Options/Seasonal/Create New Schedule. Both functions require that a temporary file be created and/or that a file be renamed *.OLD and/or deleted. There is probably something wrong with your disk. 25 Error reading/writing data file This error may occur if you ---------------------------------- have chosen Options/Seasonal/Zero MAIN-DTA.NFL. Forecaster must read from the input file you have named and write to a new MAIN-DTA.NFL. Either the input file is corrupt or there is something wrong with your disk. 26 Error writing SCHEDULE.NFL Something is wrong with your disk. ----------------------------- 27 Unable to initialize printer: memory may be low Insufficient -------------------------------------------------- memory is the most likely cause (see error #1), although there may be something wrong with your printer cable or printer. 28 Unable to open help file Forecaster is unable to find the --------------------------- file FCAST.HLP or there is insufficient memory (see error #1). -4 Forecaster requires DOS version 3.0 or later Forecaster will ----------------------------------------------- not run if your DOS version is not at least 3.0. NFL Forecaster for DOS 26 MISCELLANEOUS =============== You should remember that data saved on a RAM disk is volatile; it disappears when the electricity is turned off (unless you have a memory board with battery backup). Thus, it is important to transfer data files from the RAM disk to permanent media (floppy or hard disks). When you are entering scores, if a team scores more than 98 points, just enter 98. This is so far above the average of 21 points per game that the increase in the team's offensive ranking (and the decrease in the opponent's defensive ranking) will be so substantial that the difference between 98 and, say, 103 will be negligible. If a team ever scores more than 98 points (in the last 9 years the highest score was 62 points and the record is 99), we will provide an update to NFL Forecaster at no charge to any registered user who writes or calls. NFL AVERAGE POINTS PER WEEK ============================= There is a value that is crucial to the proper working of NFL Forecaster: the average number of points scored by a team each game. Historically, every NFL team scores 21 points per game on average, although this has been decreasing in recent years. Rankings are based on the percentage that any given team is better or worse than the offense and defense average (this is an oversimplification, but basically true). That is, a team that scores 30 points per game has a stronger than average offense and a team that holds its opponents to 19 points has a stronger than average defense. However, rules changes can affect this value; a liberalization of the rules governing pass defense could result in fewer passing yards (and points) being gained. NFL Forecaster for DOS 27 Average Number of Points per Game per Team for the Last 10 Seasons All Points/ Avg of All Games Weekly Avgs -------------------------------------- 84-85 21.21 20.94 85-86 21.53 21.48 86-87 20.52 20.51 87-88 21.60 21.59 88-89 20.26 20.19 89-90 20.61 20.61 90-91 20.12 20.20 91-92 18.97 18.95 92-93 18.73 18.72 93-94 18.70 18.80 -------------------------------------- 10 year avg 20.22 20.20 As you can see from the table above, the average fluctuates, and the 10-year average is down from 21.0 to 20.2 (excluding playoff games). However, only in the last 3 years has there been a significant deviation from the 21 point average. The NFL is very sensitive about decreases in scoring (fans complain) and changes the rules in order to keep the scoring at its historical average. This year the NFL has made several changes which should increase scoring. Therefore, it is probably unwise to modify this value unless there is a significant and lasting change in the average number of points scored per game by each team, although some users do change this value every year to reflect the average points per game for the preceding season. NFL FORECASTER COMMAND REFERENCE ================================== Below is an description of each menu command. If you press the F1 key when a menu item is highlighted, the on-line help will display the appropriate descriptions below. A menu item that has a right arrow character on its right will cause a submenu to be displayed when that item is chosen. For example, under Options, "View" has a submenu that contains entries for tiling windows, shadows, etc. A menu item that is followed by an ellipse (...) will cause a dialog box to be displayed when that menu item is chosen. For example, File/Open... invokes the File Open dialog box. A menu item that has a shortcut key description can be selected directly without having to go to the menu. For example, the NFL Forecaster for DOS 28 entry for Open under the File menu looks like this "Open Ctrl+O". This means that you can press the Control key and "O" key simultaneously to invoke the File Open dialog box at any time without having to use the menu. Another example: the entry for Zoom under the Window menu looks like this "Zoom F5". Thus, you can press the F5 key anytime a view window is open to zoom and unzoom it. Some groups of menu items are like radio buttons; only one can be selected at a time. The selected item in such a group has a dot to its left. For example, only one sort menu item can be chosen at one time and that selection will have a dot on its left side. Some menu items will have a check mark on their left side to indicate that that menu item is selected. For example, if you select Options/General/Highlight rows, there will be a check mark on its left side to indicate that you want row highlighting. The text of some menu items will change each time you select that menu item. For example, "Turn Sound OFF" will change to "Turn Sound ON" if you choose it and change back to "Turn Sound OFF" if you choose it again. The menu item tells you what will happen if you choose it. 1. FILE Generally, Forecaster Quick handles loading and saving ======= data files for you. Sometimes, however, you may want or need to load and save a file. You need to load MAIN-DTA.NFL, enter the scores and save MAIN-DTA.NFL yourself (1) for the playoff games and (2) when there is a disruption of the NFL schedule as happened in 92-93 when a hurricane caused the Miami- New England game to be postponed for several weeks. You could not use Quick to enter the scores for the first week because there was no score for the Miami-New England game. And, during the week when the postponed game was played, Quick would not forecast spreads for the Miami-New England game because it was not on the schedule. So it was necessary to load the data, enter the scores, obtain forecasts and save the data yourself. (3) There may be times when you want to load archive weekly files for information purposes -- to view or print the ranking of a particular team at a particular time or look back at some scores or spreads. 1.1 File_Open CTRL+O Choosing File/Open causes a File Open -------------------- dialog box to appear. You can enter the name of a file or choose it from the list box. The file name input line maintains a history list of file names. When the cursor is in the file name input line, you can press the down arrow key (or click on the down arrow with the mouse) and select from a list of previous file names. To select a file from a different disk drive, press the "Drive" button. NFL Forecaster for DOS 29 When you press the "OK" button, Forecaster will examine the file to determine that it is a valid Forecaster data file before loading it. Once the file is loaded you can View or Print the rankings or use Slow to Enter Scores or Forecast Spreads. If you have loaded the file just to View or Print rankings, you can load another file or quit Forecaster. If you have loaded a file and entered scores, you probably will want to use File/Save As to save the data; entering scores causes the rankings to change and you probably want to save these changes. If you attempt to quit Forecaster after entering scores, it will remind you that you have not saved the new rankings to disk and ask if you want to save the data first. 1.2 File_Save As CTRL+A Choosing File/Save As causes a File Save ----------------------- As dialog box to appear. Forecaster will offer the name of the file you have loaded as the default name for saving. You can accept that name, enter another name or choose a name from the list box. When you press the "OK" button or double-click on a file name, Forecaster checks whether there is a file with the same name already on the disk. If so, it will ask you if it should be replaced. To select a file from a different disk drive, press the "Drive" button. File/Save As can also be used to make backups of each week's rankings. After you have used Quick to enter the scores, obtain forecasts, print the rankings, and save the data, you can use File/Save As to save the data to another disk. If you do not regularly back up your entire hard disk, we recommend that you make a weekly back up of the Forecaster data files. Then, if an electronic glitch should cause MAIN-DTA.NFL to become corrupt in the 14th week of the NFL season, you will not have to reenter all of the season's scores in order to bring MAIN-DTA.NFL up to date. File/Save As CANNOT be used to make copies of files. When you use Save As to save a file (or when Quick saves an archive file), Forecaster checks to see if scores were entered and/or spreads forecast. If so it includes them in the archive file. If you simply load an archive file from one directory and save it under a different name (maybe in a different directory), the file will contain the rankings, but not the scores or forecasts (since no scores were entered nor spreads forecast). If you want to make backup copies of files, you should proceed as described in the preceding paragraph or use DOS to copy the file. File/Save As is meant to be used after using Quick to save a back-up copy of the data and after using Slow/Enter Scores and Slow/Forecast Spreads for the playoffs and non-scheduled games. NFL Forecaster for DOS 30 1.3 File_Print You can print five reports which are basically --------------- the same as what you see in the five View windows. You can also print the NFL schedule. When you choose File/Print, a reports dialog box pops up with a check box for Spreads, Team Rankings, Division Rankings, Category Rankings, Archive Data and Schedule. When you first start Forecaster, only the Schedule check box will be enabled. After you load a data file, the Spreads, Team Rankings, Division Rankings and Category Rankings check boxes will be enabled. The Archive Data check box will be disabled unless you have loaded an archive file. Check the reports you want to have printed and press the "OK" button. When you save options (Options/Save options), a list of the currently checked reports is saved. (The state of the Archive scores/spreads check box is not saved.) Thus, if you would like to print a Team Rankings and Spreads report each week, check these two reports and print the reports. Then choose Options/Save options. Now the print reports dialog box will pop up with Team Rankings and Spreads already checked and you can just press the "OK" button. Forecaster reports require no fancy formatting and can be printed on even the oldest, simplest printers (including typewriter-type printers). You can press the "Printer Setup" button to change printers or printer ports (see the section "Options/Print/Printer setup"). At the top right of each report (except Archive Data and Schedule) is printed the season and week (if you are using Quick). You can add a title to each report and initials to the spreads report, highlight rows, and use team or city names. See the section "Options/Print" for more information. While the reports are printing, a "Cancel Printing" dialog box is displayed. If you press the "Cancel" button, Forecaster cancels printing at the next line of the report. However, if you are using a fast printer or computer, using a print spooler or if your printer has its own buffer, printing may not immediately cancel, because at the time when you press the cancel button, large chunks of the report (or even entire reports) may have already been sent to the printer or buffer. Forecaster prints one report after another. If your printer requires that you insert pages manually, do the following. Choose only 1 report to print in the Print Reports dialog box and print it. Insert a new page. Select another report in the Print Reports dialog and print it. And so on. Forecaster assumes that the page is 8.5" x 11" and that the printer will print at 10 characters per inch in a non- proportional (fixed) font. The left margin is sufficient for NFL Forecaster for DOS 31 punching holes so the reports can be put in a binder. If you want fancier reports with different and/or proportional fonts and typefaces, you should obtain NFL Forecaster for Windows which takes advantage of Windows superior printing facilities. 1.3.1 File_Print_Spreads Report The Spreads report shows the ------------------------------- same information as seen in the View Spreads window as well as additional items. Boxes before each team name are provided so that you can check your choices. Spaces are provided after the team names for noting the scores. The right side contains three columns with a cell for each game -- two for checking off whether Forecaster correctly predicted the winner and the spread (Forecaster will blank out any game cell which is predicted as even) and whether you correctly picked the winner (you may put your initials at the top of this column via Options/Print/Spreads initials). At the bottom right side, cells are provided for the total number of predictions, of correct choices and of correct percentages for each week for each column and to keep running totals for the season. (Forecaster will automatically calculate the total number of weekly predictions for you.) It is interesting as the season progresses to see how well Forecaster does at predicting winners and spreads and how well you do. The spread report contains the forecasts calculated up to the time of printing whether this is two or sixteen. If no spreads have been forecast, Forecaster will display an error message and return you to the main menu. Forecaster's on-line help contains a sample Spreads report and an explanation of it. 1.3.2 File_Print_Team Rankings Report The Team Rankings report ------------------------------------- is very similar to the View Team Rankings window. The field upon which the rankings were sorted before printing is indicated by a dot to the left of the field name. The average number of points scored by each team is printed at the bottom of the report. At the end of the season you can use this number from each week's Team Rankings report to calculate the average number of points scored by each team in each game for the season. (See the "NFL Average Points Per Game" section about the importance of this number.) 1.3.3 File_Print_Category Rankings Report This report provides ----------------------------------------- the same information as the View Category Rankings window. The team and city names are shortened in order to fit all of the columns on the page. NFL Forecaster for DOS 32 1.3.4 File_Print_Division Rankings Report This report provides ----------------------------------------- the same information as the View Division Rankings window. 1.3.5 File_Print_Archive Data In order to print archive scores ----------------------------- or spreads, you must load an archive data file first. This function prints the scores of the week of the archive file (except the first week, WEEK-00.yy) and the spreads for the following week (except the last week, WEEK- 17.yy). They are printed on a single page with the name of the archive file as titles. They never have highlighted rows. The Archive Data check box is always unchecked when you invoke the print dialog box; you must explicitly check it each time. If you print the spreads report each week and fill in the scores, there is no need to print archive scores or spreads. However, if you want a separate, printed copy of the scores each week, do the following. Use Quick to enter scores, obtain forecasts, save data, and print the reports. Then choose File/Open and load the archive file for the current week (it was just saved by Quick). Then choose File/Print/Archive Data. 1.3.6 File_Print Schedule The current schedule (SCHEDULE.NFL) is ------------------------- printed three weeks to a page (six pages). Options/Print/Title, and Options/General/Highlight Rows are ignored when the schedule is being printed. 1.4 File_DOS Shell This menu item enables you to exit to the ------------------ DOS command line, from which you can execute DOS commands or run another program (assuming there is enough memory available). To return to Forecaster, at the DOS prompt type "exit" and press the Enter key. 1.5 File_Exit ALT+X See the section "Quitting NFL Forecaster." ------------------- 2. Quick ======== 2.1 Prompted weekly update CTRL+Q Rather than loading a data --------------------------------- file (File/Open), individually entering scores for each team (Slow/Enter Scores), choosing teams for spread forecasts (Slow/Forecast Spreads), and saving the data back to disk (File/Save As), you can use the Quick function which does this semiautomatically. You must use the Slow functions to enter scores and predict spreads for the playoff games (see the "Slow" section). When you choose Quick from the menu, Forecaster displays a dialog box; from the list, pick which weeks you want to enter scores/forecast spreads for. Forecaster reads the disk files MAIN-DTA.NFL (which contains the current rankings) and NFL Forecaster for DOS 33 SCHEDULE.NFL (which contains the current schedule). Quick then opens a dialog box for entering scores. The teams are displayed by conference and division in six columns. Use the mouse (double-click on a team name) or keyboard (highlight a team name and press the spacebar) to choose the teams that will play in next week's games and enter the appropriate scores for the week just completed. You can choose teams and enter scores in any order. A score of twenty-one will be highlighted in the list box where you enter the scores. Acceptable scores range from 0 to 98 (see the "Miscellaneous" section). When the teams and scores are correct, press the "Enter" button. Forecaster will prompt you to confirm that the teams and scores are correct and if you answer yes it will display them in the lower part of the screen. Forecaster will not allow you to choose a team to play itself. When you confirm that the teams and scores are correct for each game, Forecaster removes the team names from the list box. Since Forecaster has read the schedule, it will know when all of the scores have been entered and immediately update the rankings based upon the new scores. You can press the "Cancel" button at anytime to throw away any scores entered so far. If you make a mistake entering scores, and do not catch the mistake when Forecaster prompts you to confirm the scores, press the "Cancel" button. Do NOT save the data. Choose Quick from the menu and start over. After Forecaster updates the rankings, it will ask if it should save the new rankings to disk. You should answer yes, unless you have some special reason for not saving the rankings. Forecaster will then save MAIN-DTA.NFL and a weekly archive file. Forecaster will calculate the spreads for the next week and ask if you would like to forecast some non-scheduled games. You can forecast a maximum of 16 spreads each week (2 extra for a normal 14-game week). Some users like to calculate the spreads for their favorite team against other teams (archrivals, strongest, division leader) each week. If you answer yes, a dialog box similar to the Slow/Forecast spreads (see the appropriate section) dialog box will open. When you have gotten the spreads for as many non-scheduled games as you want/can (or if you choose not to obtain non-scheduled spreads), Forecaster will ask whether it should print the reports. If you answer yes, the print reports dialog box will open (see the appropriate section). Check the reports you want (Spreads, Team Rankings, Category Rankings, Category Rankings) and press the "OK" button to print them (see "Printing" for more NFL Forecaster for DOS 34 information). Finally, Forecaster will ask if it should open the view windows. If you answer "yes," it will call View/Restore Layout (see the appropriate section), opening the view windows in the sizes and positions that you last saved via Views/Save Layout. The week before the first game of the NFL season use Quick to "Forecast week 1 spreads." (The archive file for this week is WEEK-00.yy.) After the first week's games have been played, but before the second week's games are played, use Quick to "Enter week 1 scores & forecast week 2 spreads." Each week until after the last week you use Quick to "Enter week x scores & forecast x+1 spreads." After the last game of the season, you need to "Enter week 17 scores" (since there is no 18th game to predict spreads for). For the playoff games and the Super Bowl, you must use Slow/Enter Scores and Slow/Forecast Spreads because Quick cannot use the schedule file to get scores and forecast spreads (see the "Slow" section). See the section "Options/Seasonal" for information about zeroing MAIN-DTA.NFL before the start of each season and about creating a new schedule file. See the "Annual Update Disk" section for information about purchasing an annual update disk (with the new NFL schedule, a zeroed MAIN-DTA.NFL file and the latest version of NFL Forecaster). 3. VIEW The View function enables you to open a view window for ======= team, division and category rankings, and spreads. The average points per game may be displayed in a modal dialog box. Scores and spreads from an archive file can also be viewed. The View function also enables you to display the NFL schedule. The View menu item is enabled whenever you (or Quick) load a file. Use the mouse and scroll bars (or keyboard direction keys) to scroll the window horizontally and vertically. The Home key resets the View window to the upper left corner. The End key resets the View window to the lower left corner. The Page Up and Page Down keys (or clicking on the scroll bar above or below the thumb button) move the contents of the View window up or down one window; for example, if 8 lines are being displayed in a View window and you press the Page Down key, the next 8 lines will be displayed. The Up and Down arrow keys (or clicking on the vertical scroll-bar arrows) scroll the window vertically 1 line. The Right and Left arrow keys (or clicking on the horizontal scroll-bar arrows) scroll the window horizontally one character. More than one view window may be open at the same time. You can change the size and position of a window (except the average points dialog box) and switch from one view window to another using the mouse or keyboard: see the section "Window" below. NFL Forecaster for DOS 35 3.1 View_Spreads CTRL+S The forecasts are listed down the screen ----------------------- with the winning team, the losing team and the point spread listed left to right. If a game is declared to be EVEN (too close to call), the order of the team names is irrelevant; the team on the left has NO advantage over the team on the right. Forecaster does not predict spreads greater than 28 points. Only sixteen spread forecasts can be obtained at one session; see also Forecast Spreads. Since the spreads are based on the rankings, Forecaster will forecast spreads of partial points -- for example, 6.5 or 3.2. Of course, no team can score partial points, but Forecaster gives you precise spreads rather than rounding them to 1, 2, 3, 6, or 7 points. This is especially useful when two teams are about equally strong. It would be misleading to forecast that a game between Dallas and San Francisco is even or that one team will win by a field goal when in fact one is only 1.2 points stronger than the other. 3.2 View_Team Rankings CTRL+T Across the screen are listed: the ----------------------------- team's rank (1-28); the team's name; the total ranking; the offense ranking; the defense ranking; the number of points the team has scored (Pts+); the number of points scored against the team (Pts-); the average number of points the team has scored each game (Avg+); the average number of points scored against the team each game (Avg- ); the team's win-loss-tie percentage (0.000-1.000); and the number of games won, lost and tied (0-16). The team's name is also displayed at the right side to make it easier to read the rankings when the window is scrolled to the left. The total, offense and defense rankings range from 0 to 200 with 100 being an average total ranking, 101 being an average offense ranking and 99 being an average defense ranking. Roughly, average means that a team consistently scores twenty-one points per game (or whatever the average points per game is; see section "NFLAPPG" below) and holds the opposition to twenty-one points per game. The higher the ranking, the stronger the team is. An average team will display about 21 in the Avg+ and Avg- categories. A strong offensive team will show Avg+ values greater than 21 and a strong defensive team will show Avg- values less than 21. See the section "Sorting" for information about sorting View Team Rankings. 3.3 View_Division Rankings CTRL+D Rather than being displayed in --------------------------------- sorted order (by some category) from 1 to 28, the View Division window displays the teams sorted within their division and conference. They are sorted automatically by win/loss percentage; you cannot sort them by other categories. The same information is displayed across the screen as with the View Team window, except that the rank NFL Forecaster for DOS 36 listed at the left of the screen is the rank of the team according to the last sort category used; a dot is always displayed to the left of the "%" category header and another dot is displayed to the left of the header of the category by which the rankings were last sorted. If you are displaying both the Team Rankings and Division Rankings and sort the Team Rankings, the rankings on the left side of the Division Rankings will change to reflect the new sort and the dot on the category header will move. 3.4 View_Category Rankings CTRL+C This function automatically --------------------------------- sorts each of the eight categories (total, offense and defense rankings, points for, points against, average points per game for, average points per game against, and win/loss percentage) and lists the teams under the category headings. There is a trade off between Category and Team Rankings displays. Category Rankings is the quickest way to get an overall picture of all of the rankings. You can sort by any of the eight categories with Team Rankings, but you can see the rankings displayed only by one sorted category at a time. Category Rankings shows you all eight sorted categories at one time. However, only the names are displayed and not the actual rankings. 3.5 View_Restore Layout CTRL+R ------------------------------ 3.6 View_Save Layout The views layout includes the position and -------------------- size of each view window (Spreads, Team, Category, Division) that is open. For example, let's say that each week you would like to look at the team and division rankings and the spreads. Open each window and size and position them the way you would like. Then choose View/Save Views Layout. The layout will be saved to FCAST.CFG. Now, any time that you choose View/Restore Views Layout, the three windows will be opened, positioned and sized as you saved them. Of course, the spreads view window will not open unless spreads have been forecast. The last thing the Quick function will ask you is whether you want to open the view windows. If you answer "yes," Quick will call Restore Views Layout. To clear the layout, choose Save Views Layout when no view windows are open; then when you choose Restore Views Layout, the four view windows will be opened (if spreads have been forecast) and cascaded. The views layout is saved from the View menu, not from the Options menu. When you choose Options/Save, the views layout is not saved. This means that you can make changes (for example, turning row highlighting on or off) and save them without having to be sure that all of your view windows are open, positioned and sized correctly. Conversely, you can make changes to the views NFL Forecaster for DOS 37 layout and save it without having to be concerned that all of the other options are set correctly. The view archive data window is neither saved nor restored. NOTE: If you save the views layout while in 43- or 50-row modes with one or more windows partially or completely below row 25 and then restore the views in 25-row mode, part or all of a window may be invisible because it is located below row 25 (and you may not be able to drag it up with the mouse). If this happens, choose Window/Move on the menu and use the arrow keys to move it up. If you attempt to save the windows layout and receive an error message, you should go to the Options menu and save the options (Options/Save). Then try to save the windows layout again. If you still receive an error message, you should copy the original FCAST.CFG to the Forecaster directory, because the one on your disk must be corrupt. If there is no configuration file on disk, you can still save options; Forecaster will create a new one. But if there is not a valid configuration file on disk, you cannot save views layout. 3.7 View_Average Points When you choose this menu item, a dialog ----------------------- box opens with two pieces of information: the average points per game contained in the loaded file and the average points per game calculated after new scores have been entered (this will be 0 until scores are entered). You might use this if you do not regularly print a Team Rankings report which includes the average points per game each week it is printed. You can also use this option to obtain the average points per game per week for an entire season, by loading each weekly archive file (File/Open) and then View/Average points. This information is useful if you adjust the NFL Average Points per Game (see the appropriate section) after each season. 3.8 View_Archive Data Archive scores and spreads can be --------------------- viewed only after you load an archive file. No scores are displayed for WEEK-00.yy and no spreads are displayed for WEEK-17.yy. Assuming you have loaded WEEK-09.93, the scores displayed are those of the games of the 9th week of the season and the spreads are those computed for the following week (10). 3.9 View_Schedule When you choose this menu item, a dialog box ----------------- opens and the current schedule (SCHEDULE.NFL) is displayed in a list box. Use the keyboard or mouse to scroll through it. NFL Forecaster for DOS 38 3.10 View_Calendar When you choose this item, the current month ------------------ with the current date highlighted is displayed. Use the up and down direction keys to page forward and backward a month at a time. 4. SORT ======= 4.1 Sort_Total ALT+T -------------------- 4.2 Sort_Offense ALT+E ---------------------- 4.3 Sort_Defense ALT+D ---------------------- 4.4 Sort_Pts+ ALT++ ------------------- 4.5 Sort_Pts- ALT+- ------------------- 4.6 Sort_Percentage ALT+% ------------------------- 4.7 Sort_Avg+ ALT+A ------------------- 4.8 Sort_Avg- ALT+G Team Rankings are sorted by the current sort ------------------- field before being displayed. You can change the sort field via the Sort menu which is enabled only while viewing team rankings. Until you close the Team Rankings window, you can resort the rankings on the field of your choice. All fields are sorted in descending order (most to least), except Pts- (total points scored against a team) and Avg- (average number of points scored against a team) which are sorted in ascending order (the fewer points scored against a team the stronger it is). The current sort field is indicated by a dot to the left of the sort field name on the menu, in the view window and printed report. When the data is saved to disk (MAIN-DTA.NFL or weekly archive file), it is saved in the last sorted order. When you load MAIN- DTA.NFL or a weekly archive file and View team rankings, the saved sort order will be used unless you change the sort order before loading the file. Division Rankings are always sorted within each division by the percentage field, but the rank on the left side of the window or page is the rank according to the last team sort. Thus, if you sort the team rankings by Defense, a team might be displayed as first in its division in Division Rankings, but have a ranking of 10 (Defense). Category Rankings are sorted within each category. Spreads are not sorted. A dot is displayed to the left of the chosen sort menu item. Like radio buttons (in a dialog box), only one sort field can be chosen at a time. When you choose another sort field, the dot NFL Forecaster for DOS 39 will be removed from the old choice and placed before the new choice. 5. OPTIONS The Options menu enables you to set up a number of ========== parameters to make the program more convenient to use and to meet the needs of your computer system. You can change any of the configuration settings while Forecaster is running. The settings are saved in the file FCAST.CFG which is automatically loaded when Forecaster is run. FCAST.CFG must be in the same directory as FCAST.EXE or in your DOS PATH statement (see your DOS manual). If Forecaster cannot find FCAST.CFG, it will use some default values, which you may or may not find pleasing. The options are grouped into several categories: (1) View options affect only the screen display. (2) Print options affect only printing. (3) General options affect both viewing and printing. (4) Seasonal includes activities that you need to perform only once-a-year before the season begins. 5.1 Options_View The four View options -- Tile windows, Toggle ---------------- video mode, Turn shadows ON/OFF, and Colors -- affect the screen display. 5.1.1 Options_View_Tile windows When you chose Tile from the ------------------------------- Window menu (see below), all open View windows are resized and repositioned so that no window covers any part of another window. When windows are tiled, they can be placed side-by-side or one above the other. 5.1.1.1 Options_View_Tile Vertical When the View windows are ---------------------------------- tiled vertically, they are placed side-by-side with no window covering any part of another. 5.1.1.2 Options_View_Tile Horizontal When the View windows are ------------------------------------ tiled horizontally, they are placed one above the other with no window covering any part of another. 5.1.2 Options_View_Turn shadows ON/OFF When a color monitor is -------------------------------------- in use, Forecaster's menus, windows and dialog boxes are accompanied by shadows which give them a 3-D look and make them easier to isolate visually on a crowded desktop. If you prefer, you can turn shadowing off. However, this function does not turn off shadowing of buttons in dialog boxes which are used to give the impression that the buttons have been depressed and released. Button shadowing can be turned off via the Options/General/Colors menu item (see below). NFL Forecaster for DOS 40 5.1.3 Options_View_Toggle video mode This options enables you to ------------------------------------ switch your monitor to and from a video mode that displays more than 25 rows. More rows means that you can see the entire contents of a View window without having to scroll through it. However, it also means that the characters will be smaller and more difficult to read. If you have an EGA video adaptor, 43 lines can be displayed. If you have a VGA adaptor, 50 lines can be displayed. 5.1.4 Options_View_Colors Choosing this menu item invokes a ------------------------- dialog box by which you can choose the foreground and background colors of the various components of the Forecaster display. Forecaster's on-line help contains a sample choose color dialog box and explanation. The Colors dialog box consists of two list boxes, a text display area, the standard OK, Cancel, and Help buttons. On color and black-and-white systems, it also contains two color palettes while on monochrome systems, it contains a set of radio buttons instead of the palettes. On the left side of the dialog box is a list box in which you choose the region of the program that you want to customize. The various elements are grouped under headings. For example all of the elements that make up the menu system are grouped as "Menus." When you choose a group from the Group list box, all of the items that make up that group are listed in the Item list box. For example, menus have normal text, selected text, disabled text, and so on. On color and black-and-white systems, you use the Foreground and Background palettes to choose the colors for the elements in the Items list box. For example, you could choose Menus from the Group list box, then Selected text from the Item list box, and then set the colors of a selected menu item to white (foreground) on blue (background). On monochrome systems, you use the Colors set of radio buttons to modify the character attributes (instead of colors). On all systems, the display text (above the Help button) shows the current color or attribute settings. Changes do not take effect on the desktop until you close the Colors dialog box by choosing OK. Because there are so many color items, it can take some time to get everything to look just the way you like. Therefore, after you have completed customizing Forecaster's colors and saved them (see NFL Forecaster for DOS 41 "Options/Save" below), you should make a back-up copy of FCAST.CFG (the file that contains the options). If the file becomes corrupt or is accidentally deleted, you can easily and quickly restore all of the options you have customized by using the back-up copy of FCAST.CFG. One of the elements listed in the Items list box when you choose Dialogs in the Group list box is "Clusters." A cluster is a group of controls, such as radio buttons or check boxes. Forecaster has only one cluster: the group of check boxes in the Print Reports dialog box. If you want to remove ALL shadows, first choose the menu item Options/View/Shadows. Then choose Options/View/Colors/Dialog boxes/Button shadow and set the foreground and background colors to the same color used as the dialog box's background color (static text, labels, etc.). 5.2 Options_Print The three Print options -- Setup, Reports ----------------- title, and Spreads initials -- affect only printing. 5.2.1 Options_Printer setup This menu item opens a dialog box --------------------------- from which you can pick a printer and printer port. The same dialog box opens when you press the "Printer Setup" button when the Print Reports dialog box is displayed. Most printers are connected to the parallel printer port LPT1. If your printer is connected to LPT2 or LPT3, you should press the appropriate radio button. If your printer is connected to a COM (serial) port, you should use the DOS MODE command to configure your printer's baud, parity, etc. and to redirect printer output from the parallel port to the serial port. For example, at the DOS prompt you might type "mode lpt1=com1". See your DOS manual for more information. Because Forecaster's reports are uncomplicated, there are only three printer choices: 1. Laser printer -- If you have a Hewlett-Packard LaserJet (any model) or if your laser printer is compatible with the Hewlett- Packard LaserJet (most are), then press this radio button. 2. Dot matrix w/ graph characters -- If your printer can print the IBM extended character set, press this button. Your printer need not be a dot-matrix printer; it can be any printer that is not a laser printer and can print the extended character set. 3. Dot matrix w/o graph characters -- If your printer is not a laser printer and cannot print the IBM extended character set (a NFL Forecaster for DOS 42 set of characters used to draw boxes), you should press this radio button. Most printers in this category are older printers such as the Epson MX (without the Dots Perfect upgrade), early daisy-wheel and typewriter-type printers. Forecaster will use printable ASCII characters to draw boxes and lines. 5.2.2 Options_Print_Title of reports You can enter up to 11 ------------------------------------ characters that will appear at the top left of the Spreads, Team Rankings, Category Rankings, and Division Rankings reports -- your name or the date, for example. 5.2.3 Options_Print_Spreads initials You can enter three ------------------------------------ characters (usually your initials or first name) that will appear at the top of the third column on the Spreads report. In this column you check off whether you picked the correct winners. 5.3 Options_General The General options affect both printing and ------------------- viewing. 5.3.1 Options_General_Highlight rows Row highlighting in the ------------------------------------ Spreads, Team Ranking and Category Ranking view windows takes the form of drawing every fourth row in the color you choose for highlighting menu items via Options/View/Colors. In the Division Rankings view window, each division title is highlighted. Row highlighting on the Team Rankings and Category Rankings reports takes the form of a line drawn beneath every fourth row. The Division Rankings, Archive Data and Spreads reports have their own row highlighting which cannot be turned off. 5.3.2 Options_General_Turn sound ON/OFF If Sound is turned on, --------------------------------------- warning, error, and informational messages are accompanied by a beep to get your attention. 5.3.3 Options_General_Names Whenever a reference is made to a --------------------------- team, whether on screen or on a printed report, you can have Forecaster use either the team's name or its "city" name. 5.3.3.1 Options_General_Names_Use city names The team's -------------------------------------------- geographical name will be used: for example, Miami, New England, Arizona. 5.3.3.2 Options_General_Names_Use team names The teams "mascot" -------------------------------------------- name will be used: for example, Dolphins, Patriots, Cardinals. NFL Forecaster for DOS 43 5.3.4 Options_General_NFLAPPG Via this menu item you can change ----------------------------- the value that Forecaster uses for the NFL Average Points Per Game. Be sure to read the section "NFL Average Points Per Game" above before changing this value which can range from 15.0 to 30.0. It is unlikely that you will ever want or need to change this value. It is here because some users change it at the beginning of each season to reflect the previous season's average points per game and because you cannot read the configuration file (FCAST.CFG) into an editor to change it. You must NEVER try to modify FCAST.CFG using an editor or word processing program (see the section "File Formats" above). 5.4 Options_Seasonal Forecaster uses game scores, current -------------------- rankings and accumulated points for and points against to compute new rankings and to calculate point spreads. Thus, at the beginning of each season MAIN-DTA.NFL must be modified so that points for and against and average points for and average points against are set to zero. For the program to be useful, the number of wins, losses and ties and the win/loss percentage for each team must also be set to zero. Forecaster's Quick function uses SCHEDULE.NFL to prompt you for scores and to calculate point spreads, so a new schedule must be constructed before the new season begins. You can use a word processing program to create a MAIN-DTA.NFL file and assign your own rankings to each team (see the section "File Formats"). However, NFL Forecaster provides functions for zeroing MAIN-DTA.NFL, creating a new schedule, and displaying or printing the schedule. You can also purchase an annual update disk which contains MAIN- DTA.NFL, SCHEDULE.NFL and the latest version of NFL Forecaster (see the section "Annual Update Disk"). 5.4.1 Options_Seasonal_Zero MAIN-DTA.NFL You need to zero ---------------------------------------- MAIN-DTA.NFL only once a year before the new season begins. This utility prepares a new MAIN-DTA.NFL file for a new season. It takes the data from one file (usually MAIN-DTA.NFL), modifies it and saves it as MAIN- DTA.NFL. The number of points scored by a team and scored against a team, the average number of points scored by a team and scored against a team, the number of wins, losses and ties, and the win/loss percentage must be set to zero, since at the beginning of a new season no team has scored any points or won any games. You will be asked for the name of the source file you want to use to create the updated MAIN-DTA.NFL. Since Forecaster is used through the playoffs and Super Bowl, the rankings contained in MAIN-DTA.NFL at the end of a season are a bit distorted because only some teams play in the playoffs. Thus, most users choose to use the weekly archive file from the last week of the previous season as the source file. In this case it is best to rename NFL Forecaster for DOS 44 MAIN-DTA.NFL to POSTBOWL.YY (for example, POSTBOWL.92) before using MAIN-DTA.NFL update. Then you will have an archive data file of the rankings after the last week of the season and another of the rankings after the Super Bowl. If you use MAIN- DTA.NFL as the source file, it is renamed to MAIN-DTA.OLD and the new data is saved as MAIN-DTA.NFL. You have two choices when updating MAIN-DTA.NFL for the new season: you can Keep (carry over) the total, offense and defense rankings or you can give each team an equal and Average total, offense and defense ranking. Keep sets the points for, points against, win, loss, tie, and win/loss percentage categories to zero. The total, offense and defense rankings are carried over (kept). Usually you will want to carry over the old rankings because despite the draft and other activities intended to produce parity, the NFL teams do not start each season as equals. Average sets the points for, points against, win, loss, tie, and win/loss percentage categories to zero. The total, offense and defense rankings of every team are set to an average value (total = 100; offense = 101; defense = 99). Because the rankings are all equal, all of the games for the first week of the season will be declared Even. Most users do not use this function, but you might want to see how the rankings would work out IF the season began with parity among the NFL teams. The default button in the dialog box is "Cancel." You must tab to "Keep" or "Average." NOTE: Two new teams are supposed to join the NFL next year. Therefore, the format of MAIN-DTA.NFL will change and this function will not work. See the note at 5.4.2. 5.4.2 Options_Seasonal_Create new schedule If you purchase an ------------------------------------------ annual update disk, you do not have to create a new schedule yourself. This function opens a dialog box similar to the one used by Slow/Forecast Spreads. You use it to indicate which two teams play in every game of the new season. After you choose two teams, press the "Game OK" button. You will be asked to confirm that the choices are correct. You also will be asked to confirm that the choices are correct after each week's schedule has been entered. You cannot selectively make corrections; that is, you cannot go back and fix game three of week seven or game eleven of week twelve. You must make corrections immediately or a week at a time. If a week has 14 games, Forecaster will know when an entire week's games have been entered. If a week has less than 14 games, press the "Week OK" button. NFL Forecaster for DOS 45 If you press the "Cancel" button, Forecaster will ask you to confirm that you want to stop. Although this function makes creating a new SCHEDULE.NFL file quite easy, there is still a substantial amount of work involved. You cannot save a partial schedule and resume work at a later time; thus, the choice to cancel should not be taken lightly. When you create a new schedule, SCHEDULE.NFL is renamed to SCHEDULE.OLD. If SCHEDULE.OLD exists, it is overwritten. To save each year's schedule, rename it before you choose Options/Seasonal/Schedule/Create new schedule (for example, SCHEDULE.93). Note: This function helps you create a 17-week schedule for 28 teams. If the NFL changes the length of the season or increases the number of teams, this function cannot be used to create a new schedule. For many years the NFL season was 14 weeks long and later 16 weeks. Then for 3 years it was 17 weeks and last season it was 18 weeks. This season they have gone back to a 17-week season. Even if the NFL stays with a 17-week season next year (95-96), two new teams are supposed to join the league. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that you will be able to use this function to create a new schedule. However, the annual update disk contains a new MAIN-DTA.NFL file, a new SCHEDULE.NFL file and the latest version of NFL Forecaster. When you register Forecaster, you receive a coupon worth 25% off the price of your first update disk. So you can upgrade for next season for $5.25. If the NFL keeps the schedule at 17 weeks after the 95-96 season, you will not need to purchase an update disk. 5.5 Options_Save options When you choose Options/Save, the ------------------------ current values for all of the options are saved to FCAST.CFG. The options saved and their values when you first run Forecaster are: -- tile windows vertically or horizontally (vertically) -- shadows (yes) -- video mode (25 lines) -- colors -- printer setup (LPT1 and Dot Matrix w/ graph chars) -- the reports title (94-95 v. 2.0d) -- spreads report initials (YOU) -- row highlighting (yes) -- sound on (yes) -- team or city names (city); -- NFLAPPG (21.0) Options are NOT automatically saved when you quit Forecaster; therefore, you can experiment without changing the settings in FCAST.CFG which aren't changed until you select Save from the Options menu. Also contained in FCAST.CFG are Views Layout NFL Forecaster for DOS 46 and the reports that you have checked in the Print/Reports dialog box (see the appropriate sections for more information). If there is no FCAST.CFG file on your disk when you save the options, Forecaster will create a new one. It can take some time to set all of the options just the way you like. Therefore, after you have completed customizing Forecaster's options and saved them, you should make a back-up copy of FCAST.CFG (the file that contains the options). If the file becomes corrupt or is accidentally deleted, you can easily and quickly restore all of the options you have customized by copying the back-up copy of FCAST.CFG to your Forecaster directory where Forecaster can find it when it runs. 6. SLOW Slow enables you to manually pick the teams to forecast ======= spreads for and to manually enter scores. Generally, you should not have to use Slow. There are ONLY TWO occasions when you have to use Slow. FIRST, you must use Slow/Forecast Spreads and Slow/Enter Scores for playoff games because Quick uses the SCHEDULE.NFL file to prompt you for scores and forecast spreads and the playoff teams are unknown at the beginning of the season when the schedule file is created. SECOND, it is necessary to enter scores and forecast spreads via Slow when there is a disruption of the NFL schedule as happened in 92-93 when a hurricane caused the Miami-New England game to be postponed for several weeks. In that case, you could not use Quick to enter the scores for the first week because there was no score for the Miami-New England game. Further, during the week when the postponed game was played, Quick would not forecast spreads for the Miami-New England game because it was not on the schedule. If you have to use Slow because there is a disruption of the NFL schedule, be sure to save the data to disk since the new rankings will be the result of actual games. Save both MAIN- DTA.NFL and a weekly archive file (Quick normally does this for you). See the sections "File/Open" and "File/Save As" for information about loading and saving files. Except in these two cases, you should not use Slow. If you do use it to "play around" and enter scores, be sure not to save data to disk (the rankings will not reflect the scores of actual games). It is crucial that you obtain forecasts for next week's games only AFTER you have entered last week's scores (and, therefore, have updated the rankings). Otherwise, the forecasts will be based on last week's rankings. This is not a problem if you use Quick, but you must remember to do this in the proper order if NFL Forecaster for DOS 47 you use Slow: Enter the scores and then Forecast the spreads. 6.1 Slow_Manually enter scores CTRL+E In order to use Slow to ------------------------------------- Enter scores, you must first load a file -- either MAIN-DTA.NFL or a weekly archive file -- because new rankings are based upon current rankings (which are contained in a disk file). The Enter Scores dialog box displays the teams by conference and division in six columns. Using the mouse or keyboard, choose the teams that played in last week's games and enter the appropriate scores. You can choose teams and enter scores in any order: pick team, enter score, pick team, enter score; or pick team, pick team, enter score, enter score; or enter score, pick team, enter score, pick team; etc. A score of twenty-one will be highlighted in the input box where you enter the scores. Acceptable scores range from 0 to 98 (see the "Miscellaneous" section). When the teams and scores are correct, press the "Enter" button. Forecaster will prompt you to confirm that the teams and scores are correct and if you answer "yes" it will display them in the lower part of the screen. If you answer "no," you can reenter the teams and/or scores. When you have entered all scores for all of the games, press the "Done" button. Forecaster will immediately update the rankings based upon the new scores. You can press the "Cancel" button at anytime to cancel Slow/Enter Scores and throw away any scores entered so far. Forecaster will not allow you to choose a team to play itself. After you confirm that the teams and scores are correct for each game, Forecaster will remove the team names from the list box. This prevents you from accidentally entering a team twice. When the scores for fourteen games have been entered (the maximum number), Forecaster will automatically close the dialog box. See also the relevant sections for viewing and printing the rankings and spreads. If you make a mistake entering scores, and do not catch the mistake when Forecaster prompts you to confirm the scores, press the "Cancel" button. Do not save the data. Then reload the file and reenter the scores. 6.2 Slow_Manually forecast spreads CTRL+F In order to forecast ----------------------------------------- spreads, you must first load a file -- either MAIN-DTA.NFL or a weekly archive file -- because spreads are based upon current rankings (which are contained in a disk file). The Forecast Spreads dialog box displays the teams by conference and division in six columns. Using the mouse or keyboard, choose the teams that will play in the up-coming games. Then press the "Forecast" button and Forecaster will display the NFL Forecaster for DOS 48 winner of the game and the winning point spread at the lower part of the screen. When you have obtained forecasts for all of the games of the next week, press the "Done" button. You can press the "Cancel" button at anytime to cancel Slow/Forecast Spreads and throw away any spreads you have obtained so far. Forecaster will not allow you to choose a team to play itself; it will, however, allow you to choose the same team more than once. Thus, you can test your favorite team against other teams in hypothetical games. When sixteen forecasts have been computed (the maximum number), Forecaster will automatically close the dialog box. See also the relevant sections for Viewing and Printing spreads. 7. Window This menu item enables you to position, size, close ========= and switch View windows. 7.1 Window_Tile When View windows are tiled, they are arranged --------------- on the desktop side-by-side or one above the other (see "Options/View/Tile"), so that no window covers any part of another window. 7.2 Window_Cascade Cascade causes all open View windows to ------------------ resize and overlap each other. When View windows are cascaded, they are stacked one on top of th other so that a small portion of each one is visible. 7.3 Window_Close all This will cause all open View windows to -------------------- close. 7.4 Window_Size/Move CTRL+F5 Use this command to change the size ---------------------------- or position of the active window. Use the arrow keys to move the window. If you press Shift while using the arrow keys, you can change the size of the active window. Once you've adjusted its size or position, press Enter. With a mouse you move a window by dragging its title bar and resize a window by dragging the resize corner (lower right) 7.5 Window_Zoom F5 Choose Zoom to resize the active window to ------------------ the maximum size. If the window is already zoomed, you can choose this command to restore it to its previous size. You can also click on the window's zoom icon or double-click anywhere on the window's title bar. 7.6 Window_Switch F6 Choose this menu item to cycle forwards -------------------- through the open View windows making each the active window in turn. You can also click the mouse inside NFL Forecaster for DOS 49 an inactive window to make it active. 7.7 Window_Previous SHIFT+F6 Choose this menu item to cycle ---------------------------- backwards through the open View windows making each the active window in turn. You can also click the mouse inside an inactive window to make it active. 7.8 Window_Close ALT+F3 Choose this menu item to close the ----------------------- active View window. You can also click the Close box in the upper right corner of the window. 8. Help The file FCAST.HLP must be in your Forecaster ======= directory in order to access on-line help. See also the section "Help" above. 8.1 Help_Help on Forecaster Help Choose this item for a -------------------------------- description of how to use Forecaster's on-line help. 8.2 Help_Contents Choosing this item will display the Table of ----------------- Contents of Forecaster's on-line help. Choosing an item from the Table of Contents will display that topic. Anytime you are viewing an on-line help topic you can press Shift+F1 to display the Table of Contents. 8.3 Help_Introduction --------------------- 8.4 Help_Overview ----------------- 8.5 Help_Catching Up -------------------- 8.6 Help_Menu Commands ---------------------- 8.7 Help_Error Messages ----------------------- 8.8 Help_Registration --------------------- 8.9 Help_Shareware Choosing any of these Help menu items will ------------------ cause the appropriate topic to be displayed. 8.10 Help_About Choose this item to display the NFL Forecaster --------------- version number and copyright information. 8.11 Help_Print manual Choosing this item will cause the NFL ---------------------- Forecaster manual to be printed. The printer setup dialog box will be first displayed so that you can choose a printer and printer port. 8.12 Help_Print registration form Choosing this item will cause --------------------------------- the NFL Forecaster registration form to be printed. (See the "Why Should I Register NFL Forecaster for DOS 50 NFL Forecaster?" section above.) Press the Printer Setup button to choose a printer and printer port. NFL FORECASTER FOR DOS 2.0 REGISTRATION FORM 100% Cotton Software RR 1 Box 1622 Hop Bottom, PA 18824, USA Credit card ORDERS ONLY (MC, Visa, Amex, Discover) may be made through: Public (software) Library PHONE: 1-800-242-4775 or 713-524-6394 FAX: 713-524-6398 CIS EMAIL: 71355,470 Your order will be processed more quickly and efficiently if you refer to item #11343. The above PsL numbers are for ORDERS ONLY. For more information, see the section "Why Should I Register NFL Forecaster?". Date:_________________ Register NFL Forecaster ($20.00 per copy) $________ Orders outside the United States (add $3.00) $________ TOTAL $________ Total includes shipping, handling and taxes where applicable. International orders US Dollars please. __ Check __ Money order __ 5 1/4" disk __ 3 1/2" disk Name _________________________________________________________ Street _______________________________________________________ City ______________________________ State ____ Zip __________ Please provide the following information. I obtained my copy of NFL Forecaster from: Shareware distributor ___________________________________ Electronic bulletin board _______________________________ Users' group ____________________________________________ Other ___________________________________________________ Friend, colleague, relative______________________________ Suggestions/comments: ________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________