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1993-05-16
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SNAKE OIL SALESMEN
By Werner Meyer
[Extract from POLICY REVIEW, Summer 1986]
"Even with decontrol of oil prices, we can see a 30 percent to 40
percent decline in domestic oil production."
Daniel Yergin
Sierra
July/August 1979
"All available evidence points to a serious risk of a serious energy
crisis in the middle or late 1980s ... Putting it simply, there is the
very great likelihood of a major world depression."
Ulf Lantzke
Executive Director, International Energy Agency
The New Republic
Februrary 25, 1978
"We're heading into a world of considerably higher prices. There will be
a major impact on housing by 1983, and I'd be surprised if gasoline is
less than $2 per gallon plus whatever inflation adds."
Kenneth Arrow
Professor of Economics, Stanford University
Forbes
February 4, 1980
"It's obvious that gasoline could reach at least $2 a gallon after
decontrol."
Representative John Dingell (D-MI)
Chairman, Subcommittee on Energy and Power
Forbes
December 10, 1979
"Irreversible physical shortfalls in supplies may take place as early as
1988. [The result] is likely to push market prices to levels three or
four times the current one."
Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani
Saudi Arabian Oil Minister
New York Times
June 21, 1979
"World oil prices have only one way to go in the next decade -up, and
probably sharply so."
John Mattill
Editor, Technology Review
December/January 1980
"It would be prudent for any American contemplating the purchase of a
new car to assume that gas will cost $2 per gallon with a few years and
$3 per gallon during the vehicle's lifetime."
Lester Brown
Worldwatch Institute
Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
March 1980
"During 1980 and 1981, for each barrel of oil newly produced as a result
of decontrol, the cost to the U.S. economy could range from at least $56
per barrel under the most optimistic assumptions, to about $870 per
barrel under assumptions which many experts believe are realistic ...
Thus even if decontrol does in fact stimulate a few extra barrels of
oil, the total cost to the economy of those few barrels is so high as to
make decontrol the most nonsensical, irresponsible, and expensive energy
supply strategy imaginable."
Energy Action
March 24, 1979
"Ronald Reagan brushed aside energy issues during the campaign,
insisting the shortages could be overcome by unleashing private
enterprise. But not even his most fervent supporters in the energy
business share that optimism. Virtually all private forecasts predict
declining domestic oil production and liquid fuel shortages in the next
decade."
New York Times
November 14, 1980
"There is a dwindling supply of energy sources. The prices are going to
rise in the future no matter who is President, no matter which party
occupies the administration in Washington, no matter what we do."''
President Jimmy Carter
March 31, 1979
"A government role is crucial if the United States is to reduce its
energy vulnerability ... At present rates of exploitation, the United
States will exhaust its own petroleum reserves in about 10 years ... The
only long-term solution to the liquid fuel problem is the production of
substitutes."
Alan Madian
Foreign Policy
Summer 1979
"[Because of decontrol,] the administration has placed the American
economy, competition in the oil industry, and the public at the mercy of
a handful of international oil companies and OPEC."
Ed Rothschild
Director, Energy Action
January 5, 1980
"Decontrol would cause a political storm because prices would
immediately rise. Some experts warn that gasoline prices would soar to
$2 a gallon."
Marshall Loeb
Time
July 9, 1979
"Any surplus production capacity that individual OPEC countries may have
developed in recent years will almost certainly vanish by the mid-1980s,
perhaps sooner ... In 1990 prices, adjusted for future inflation, oil
could be selling for $42 to $55 a barrel."
U.S. Department of Energy
National Energy Plan II
May 1979
"The day when a tankful of gasoline costs $50 is probably not far off."
Lester Brown
Worldwatch Institute
Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
March 1980
"The present oil shortage looks like the start of a long siege. While
the demand for oil keeps growing as world population and economies
expand, supply slows and it is difficult to see where large amounts of
additional oil will come from in the next several years."
Leonard Silk
New York Times
June 29, 1979
"It is obvious to anyone that looks at it [the oil crisis] that we've
got a problem that's serious now. It's going to get more serious in the
future. We're going to have less oil; we're going to have to pay more
for it. Those are the facts. They are unpleasant facts. And so far, the
American people ... have refused to accept that simple fact."
President Jimmy Carter
May 25, 1979
"An already serious energy problem has now become an energy emergency,
an emergency that will persist throughout the entire 1980s."
Robert Strobaugh and Daniel Yergin
Foreign Affairs
Vol. 58, no. 3
1979
"Mr. President, I believe we will see $1.50 gas this spring, and maybe
before. And it is just a matter of time until the oil companies and
their associates, the OPEC nations, will be driving the gasoline pump
prices up to $2 a gallon."
Senator Howard Metzenbaum (D-OH)
January 29, 1981
"Estimating $1.50 [per gallon of gas] is totally, totally optimistic."
Dan Lundberg
Gasoline price specialist
New York Times
February 27, 1980
"One thing is for certain: prices will continue to rise. We're dealing
with a scarce, finite commodity, one that will be running out in a
couple of decades. Traditional criteria of supply and demand don't
apply."
Charles W. Duncan
Secretary of Energy
U.S. News and World Report
February 25, 1980
"We're going to be on the ragged edge for years."
Clifton C. Garvin, Jr.
Chairman, Exxon Corp.
Business Week
December 24, 1979
"With oil, surprises or changes can only go one way: against us."
Paul Frankel
Petroleum Economics, Ltd.
Dun's Review
April 1980
"The price of oil now seems firmly locked into a steep upward spiral for
the foreseeable future."
Business Week
December 31, 1979
"At present rates of consumption, America's oil and gas will be gone
within a decade."
Newsweek
July 16, 1979
"Without rationing, gasoline will soon go to $3 a gallon."
Senator Dale Bumpers (D-AR)
U.S. News and World Report
July 9, 1979
"In moving towards 1990, the industrialized countries will be walking an
`oil tightrope.'"
International Energy Agency
Energy Conservation
1981
"Because of this estimated decline in future oil production, estimated
oil imports in 1985 have risen from 6 [million] to 11 million barrels
per day."
Daniel White
Professor of Finance, Georgia State University
Business
May/June 1979
"A conservative assessment would project the non-Communist world's oil
consumption as likely to advance from 51 million barrels daily in 1977
to 62 million per day in 1985."
Walter J. Levy
Oil consultant
New York Times
January 4, 1979
"Most industry observers, however, believe that this time OPEC will be
successful in keeping oil prices from falling."
Business Week
December 31, 1979
"America's oil system must be nationalized as are those of Libya,
Nigeria, Mexico, and Venezuela. Since there is no free market in oil, it
is idle to pretend otherwise. There is no way a nationalized industry
can damage or endanger us more than the present monopolistic structure."
Glyn Jones
New York Times
October 2, 1979
"Almost inevitably, therefore, OPEC's management of the world's oil
supply will keep the world economy teetering on the brink of recession."
Business Week
October 29, 1979
"Responses that might have been sufficient between 1974 and 1979 no
longer suffice; today the United States and all the world's importers
are caught in an accute and lasting energy emergency."
Robert Stobaugh and Daniel Yergin
Foreign Affairs
Vol. 58, no. 3
1979
"The tragic failure of U.S. energy planning is that it has doggedly
promulgated futile market-oriented solutions to energy problems."
Carter Henderson
Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
December 1978
"Rationing is the fairest and most certain way to deal immediately with
this country's oil shortage."
Senator Dale Bumpers (D-AR)
U.S. News and World Report
July 9, 1979
"We must adopt a system of gasoline rationing without delay ... in a way
that demands a fair sacrifice from all Americans."
Senator Edward Kennedy (D-MA)
New York Times
January 28, 1980
"I believe that decontrol as a cure will prove to be worse than the
disease of oil addiction."
Representative Edward Markey (D-MA)
New York Times
January 9, 1981
"The price mechanism must be supplemented ... by governmental action and
guidelines encouraging or requiring conservation of oil ... It is not
sufficient to rely exclusively on the price mechanism."
Richard N. Cooper
Undersecretary for Economic Affairs
Department of State Bulletin
December 1980
"A Democratic energy policy must oppose the decontrol of gas and oil
prices."
Senator Edward Kennedy (D-MA)
New York Times
June 26, 1980
"Last week President Reagan issued an Executive Order lifting price
controls on domestic oil and gasoline ... Energy prices in Massachusetts
alone will escalate by 33 percent -- the average household paying as
much to heat itself as it does in Government taxes."
Representative Nick Mavroules (D-MA)
February 5, 1981
"I think it [OPEC] has now become such an institutionalized structure
that it would be very doubtful that anyone could break it down."
President Jimmy Carter
New York Times
February 11, 1979