When Rep. John Boehner and a handful of other House Republicans began meeting secretly in late spring with Rep. Newt Gingrich to map out what became the Contract with America, many thought they were writing a fantasy wish list. Even so, says Boehner, R-Ohio, "We knew that if we won control that we were going to have to produce." Until Election Day, the contract was really a political vehicle: a way to ensure that GOP candidates were espousing the same theme -a refrain field-tested by GOP pollsters. Few Republicans ran TV ads touting their support for the contract. President Clinton and other Democrats battered GOP candidates with dire predictions about its consequences. Still, exit polls showed it didn't really influence voters either way. Now that the dream inventory has become an obligation, Republicans say its true political value is blossoming: -- It imposes instant discipline on the new GOP House. Without it, Democratic pollster Mark Mellman says, Republicans "would be spending the first 100 days fighting about what they were going to do in the first 100 days." -- It gives congressional Republicans a simple theme they can claim the voters have already endorsed. "People may not have known the details of the contract, but they knew it meant lower taxes, less government and congressional reform," says GOP strategist Bill Kristol. -- It defines battle lines between Congress and Clinton. "They really have put the president in a box," says GOP consultant Jim Innocenzi. "He either has to sign it or veto it. If he vetoes it, he's thumbing his nose at the American voters. If he signs it, he'll have a fight from the left." It sets an achievable standard of accountability, promising only that votes will be taken on the contract in the new Congress' first 100 days, not that it will actually be passed. That loophole may pay off, since the Senate isn't rushing to implement the contract. "We don't have a lot of ideas that we can give you today as a fixed agenda of the Republican Senate," Sen. Thad Cochran, R-Miss., said Wednesday. But Democrats predict the contract will backfire. Once people understand that fulfilling the contract may mean slashes in Medicare, student loans, farm subsidies and other federal goodies near and dear to their hearts, Mellman says, "the worm is going to turn. It's going to be a disaster." Economist Dean Baker of the moderate Economic Policy Institute says, "I don't think anyone sat down and figured out how this stuff goes together, because it doesn't really. "Most people think there's this pot of gold sitting out there in foreign aid or welfare payments and we'll just cut that back and things will be OK. Support will diminish" as people find out that's not the case, he says. Republicans are meeting this week on putting into effect pledges made in its preamble, like cutting the number of committees and committee staffs and finding a firm to audit Congress for waste and fraud. Other plans: -- Legislation implementing the contract already has been written; the House Republican Conference is now divvying up jurisdiction and meeting with committee staff. -- Judiciary Committee hearings on the balanced budget are set for Jan. 5. A Jan. 19 floor vote is anticipated. Last week's voter outburst convinced Republicans they have to come through. "They built it up so that if they don't deliver, they're going to have heck to pay back home," says Jim Miller, who was President Reagan's budget director. "I anticipate you would see this package voted out by the House in short order." Daniel Mitchell, an economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation, hopes the contract is rammed through before the GOP loses nerve. "How soon before Republicans begin to get faint-hearted?" he asks. "I operate on the assumption they will get faint-hearted. But it's going to be a revolution - at least for the first year or so."
