Halloween is history, but scare tactics are likely to intensify as the 1994 campaign heads into its final week of apparitions and distortions.
With control of Congress and 36 governors' seats in play, President Clinton remains the costume of choice for Republicans to wrap around Democrats as Democrats portray the GOP as the Grinch who stole Social Security.
Negative campaigning isn't new, but this year's barbs are more bitter than ever - a reflection of high stakes, tight races, wavering voters and largely unknown challengers. The final week should continue the barrage: Attack ads at the ready if a candidate needs a final boost or sees a slip in last-minute polling numbers.
"The overwhelming thematic is negative," says Democratic consultant Mark Mellman. "Voters - call it cynical, call it savvy - are very willing to believe the worst about somebody, and very unwilling to believe the positives."
So nasty have this year's campaigns been that voters are having a tough time telling the liars from the cheats, the friends of Bill (Clinton) from the friends of Newt (Gingrich), the career politicians from the shady entrepreneurs.
Why going negative has worked:
-- Republicans capitalized on an angry electorate, painting Clinton in the worst possible light and Congress, controlled by Democrats, as the root of all evil.
"This has become a nationalized election," says Republican pollster Linda DiVall. "Much more than any other election year, the anti-government message is resonating."
-- Democrats, defending most congressional and governor's seats, counter-attacked against largely unknown challengers, defining them for voters and at times going for the jugular.
"Those are perfectly legitimate," says Democratic consultant Bob Shrum, noting many GOP candidates were akin to "the man who fell to Earth" before Democrats delved into their backgrounds. As a result, this year's campaigns have hit closer to home than ever.
"There is more personal negative (advertising) than I can recall, more personal attacks," says GOP national committee chairman Haley Barbour. "A lot of it is based on a strategic decision by the Democrats."
Nattering nabobs of negativism:
-- In California's big-bucks Senate race, GOP challenger Michael Huffington is labeled a hypocrite for employing an illegal immigrant while ranting about illegal immigration. Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, meanwhile, is attacked as "a career politician who will say or do anything to stay in office."
-- In a too-close-to-call Oklahoma Senate race, GOP Rep. Jim Inhofe runs ads showing Democratic Rep. Dave McCurdy's nose growing in connection with his claims. "McCurdy and Clinton: What will they tell us next?" the announcer intones, while a McCurdy ad fires back, "Jim Inhofe: Trouble with the truth again."
-- In Virginia's Senate race, an ad for the accused liar (Oliver North) asks, "Why can't Chuck Robb tell the truth?" while the accused cheat (Robb) retorts, "Vote your hopes, not your fears." Robb's plea notwithstanding, it's little wonder voters may be scared stiff as they contemplate their choices this year.
"It's more personally negative," says University of Virginia government professor Larry Sabato. "Americans have built up scar tissue to scandal over the last 15 to 20 years, and it takes more to catch their attention."
So Mississippi voters hear of a candidate's links to pornography dealers, Georgians are treated to a candidate's failure to pay child support and Oklahomans hear about "shady deals."
Many TV and radio ads, in fact, mention only the candidate's opponent - in negative terms, of course - and refer to the sponsor only in the "paid for by" tagline.
Lines of attack have been threefold - personal (my opponent can't be trusted); political (my opponent takes perks, pensions and pay raises); and policy, which is more complicated:
-- My Democratic opponent, say Republicans, might as well be Clinton. The tagline on a Republican National Committee generic ad attacking the "Clinton Congress" features a woman saying, "I just don't trust Bill Clinton."
-- My Republican opponent, say Democrats, wants to gut government. "Those Republicans," says a new $750,000 Democratic National Committee ad campaign. "They're at it again."
Both those themes are playing well in the campaign's waning days. To see a slew of GOP ads is to discover that dozens of House and Senate Democrats cast "the deciding vote" for Clinton's deficit-reduction package, which included tax increases. As of Monday, Democrats were on the warpath, accusing Republicans of favoring a $2,000 cut in Social Security.
In both cases, the accusations are distorted. No single lawmaker put the economic package over the top - if anything, Vice President Gore did. And while few lawmakers urge Social Security cuts, both parties have raised the specter.
Hot-button issues such as crime, welfare and immigration are resonating well in key states - including California, Texas and Florida, where incumbents are struggling.
Throughout the campaign, in fact, it's been difficult for lawmakers to claim credit for anything.
"They've had to run from Washington, run from Congress, run from the president," says Democratic consultant Raymond Strother. "That's the first time I've seen that."
"People are not willing to trust. They've been jilted," says Democratic National Committee adviser Tony Coelho, who fears they'll "take out their negativism on the party in power."
In the campaign's waning days, many candidates are "agonizing," in the words of one adviser, over the need to put a positive message on the air to counter a backlash against negativity. Some - notably Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass. - have come back from near extinction by running on their records.
"The point of an election is contrast. It's a mutually exclusive choice," says Democratic consultant Paul Begala. With a week to go, he says, "Republicans say get government off your back, and Democrats say put government on your side."
With a week to go, almost anything is possible: Democratic poster boys such as Kennedy, New York Gov. Mario Cuomo and House Speaker Thomas Foley are making comebacks and may survive. But Republicans still could have a shot at the House, take the Senate and win a majority of governors' races.
The story of Election '94 is still to be written. It could be Republicans' Revenge, or Democrats' Defense. Or maybe it's the Voters' Vendetta, symbolized by a bumper sticker spotted Monday: "Don't Blame Me. I Didn't Vote For Him . . . Or Her."
