by Linda Robinson; Bruce B. Auster; Kenneth T. Walsh
"Cubans prefer prison in the U.S. to the prison of Cuba," Tomas Garcia Fuste, host of a popular Miami radio show, told his many Cuban-American listeners in South Florida. It was a concise summary of the reason why even the new tough policy on Cuban refugees ordered by President Clinton may fail to turn back the growing flotilla of shaky rafts heading for Florida beaches.
In reversing the 28-year-old policy of welcoming Cubans fleeing from Fidel Castro's communism, U.S. officials say they are trying to counter Castro's cynical emigration policy -- one that Clinton described as "attempting to export to the U.S. the political and economic crisis he has created in Cuba." But if the decision to begin detaining the fleeing Cubans at the U.S. naval station in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and at Dade County's Krome Detention Camp does not dampen the exodus, Clinton administration officials could find Cuba's political and economic crisis squarely in their laps. Indeed the White House has already increased pressure on the Castro government, announcing that it would reduce charter flights to Cuba, halve remittances of Cuban- Americans to relatives in Cuba, and step up anti-Castro broadcasts to Cuba. Bernard Aronson, who served as assistant secretary of state for inter-American affairs in the Bush administration argues instead for negotiation, not pressure: "We need a more proactive policy that lays out a road map for peaceful democratization in Cuba."
What Aronson and other analysts suggest is that the United States should be willing to consider meeting some of Castro's longstanding demands, including the return of the Guantanamo naval station and lifting the embargo, in a piecemeal way, as the Cuban leader takes steps to halt the migration crisis and undertakes reform at home.
But in the politically charged arena of immigration policy and Cuban-American politics, every nuance of U.S. policy is a minefield. The decision to detain the fleeing Cubans came after Florida Gov. Lawton Chiles, facing a tough re-election battle, pleaded with Washington to stave off an immigration crisis that would anger voters of his state. At the same time, the Cuban- American community has responded angrily to the change. Many callers to Fuste's Miami radio show have denounced the new U.S. policy as putting their brethren into "concentration camps," foreshadowing a wave of criticism from the exile community. "Many Cuban-Americans are going to regard this as the president breaking faith with them," says a U.S. official who closely follows exile politics.
Some in the Cuban-American community have begun to call for a total blockade of Cuba to hasten Castro's downfall. They have received support from Democratic Rep. Robert Torricelli, chairman of the Western Hemisphere Affairs subcommittee, who has urged the administration to declare that Castro "has no right to remain in power." Torricelli pushed Clinton to retaliate against the exodus that he says Castro has orchestrated by ending charter flights that allow Cubans to visit the United States and remittances of cash from the United States to Cubans. He also wants Cubans being taken to Guantanamo to set up a government in exile there and for foreign governments to recognize it.
Clinton has given no sign of considering a more sweeping change in policy -- yet. Other than trying to avert the exodus, U.S. policy for now "is to hope like hell that the regime changes," says Richard Millett, an expert on Latin America at the University of Miami's North-South Center. The hope that deteriorating internal conditions will force that change may be wishful thinking, many experts say. While Cubans are increasingly discontent, most of their efforts are directed at leaving the island. When thousands of Cubans confronted Cuban security forces on August 5, Millett notes, "people were not rioting to bring down Castro, they were rioting to get out."
Full house. In any event, even the measures narrowly aimed at containing the immediate refugee crisis will be put to severe logistical and political tests in coming days. The Guantanamo naval station is already nearly full with 14,700 Haitian refugees, leaving room for only about 6,000 Cuban refugees. U.S. military officials are studying a plan to build another camp there to accommodate an additional 10,000 refugees. But tensions are high on the sweltering base, where refugees are housed in tents; already two scuffles have broken out between refugees and U.S. military personnel. Aronson voices concern that putting Cubans back on Cuba, albeit on Guantanamo, could prompt thousands of Cubans to try to reach the base directly. "This has the potential to involve U.S. soldiers in an internal Cuban struggle," he says, if the Cuban military fires on or attempts to halt such a move.
While U.S. officials hope the get-tough immigration policy will encourage Cubans to stay home and apply for immigration under a procedure worked out with Castro in 1984, thousands will still be tempted to take the more direct route across the sea. Under the official procedures, Cubans with close family members who are U.S. citizens may apply to immigrate, and Cubans who are politically persecuted may apply for political asylum. But these outlets won't necessarily relieve the pressure, a U.S. government official involved with Cuba policy says. "Most of the rafters leaving Cuba don't qualify for these categories," he says. Many have close family members in the United States who have not become citizens. While the 1984 accord allows for up to 20,000 immigrants annually, in fact only about 5,000 Cubans have met the criteria each year.
Many of the Cubans leaving are young men. In broad daylight, youths cast off from the picturesque seaside village of Cojimar, which borders Havana. And, says the U.S. official, they are unlikely to be deterred either by the dangers of the perilous sea voyage or the threat of imprisonment on the other end: "If you are 20 years old, you think you're immortal," he says.
