The scant history of personal computers barely spans the life of an average Dalmatian. Yet since they first appeared as hobbyists' curiosities in the late 1970s, these ubiquitous machines have transformed the economy and the way we work. In the blink of an eye, they have created industrial powers like Intel and Microsoft and shattered the hegemony of such giants as IBM and Digital Equipment Corp. And the fingernail-size microprocessors that do the heavy lifting deep inside PCs are the compute engines that will drive everything -- yes, everything -- that races along on the emerging information highway, from pocket telephones and television sets to immense supercomputers.
No wonder, then, that next week's rollout of Apple Computer's latest Macintosh line is freighted with high anxiety. The new Macs are the first mainline personal computers built to use the new PowerPC, a high-speed microprocessor developed by a $1- billion IBM-Motorola-Apple alliance. The PowerPC's RISC design (for reduced instruction set computing) has the potential to do more work for less money and electric power than present CISC (or complex instruction set computing) microprocessors, most of which are made by Intel. If the new chips are successful -- IBM will introduce its first, small PowerPC machine next summer and the alliance desperately hopes other computer builders will adopt them -- Apple's and IBM's flagging fortunes could be resuscitated. A successful PowerPC could also blaze the way for RISC chips from other companies like DEC, Sun Microsystems and Mips Technologies. And in the upheaval, Intel's virtual microprocessor monopoly might eventually be cracked.
For Apple, it's yet another bet-the-company adventure. In the beginning, early enthusiasts smuggled diminutive Apple II's into offices where they first demonstrated the power of personal computing. But IBM's PC, introduced in 1981, powered by an Intel 8088 microprocessor and Microsoft disk operating system, quickly stormed into the lead. Apple fought back in 1984 with the innovative Macintosh, which used Motorola's 68000 microprocessor. Apple grew into an $8 billion company, and the Mac's friendly face and handheld mouse changed forever the way the world thought computers should look and feel. But Microsoft's Windows did much the same for machines with Intel brains. IBM lost out in the process because the only proprietary elements of its PC were cloned, and an army of new vendors cranked out millions of ever cheaper and more powerful IBM compatible machines. The standard became Intel microprocessors and Microsoft operating systems -- and those two companies reaped huge rewards. Apple, with about 11 percent of the market and its own hardware and software, remained a niche company with a loyal following.
Power play. This time, Apple's shift to PowerPC is defensive. Its Motorola chips have been eclipsed by Intel'spowerhouses, the 80486 series and nowthe Pentium chip. "Fundamentally, [PowerPC] is replacing a chip that was deader than a doorknob," says Intel CEO Andrew Grove. Joseph Graziano, Apple's chief financial officer, concedes: "For the first time in a long time, there will be less questions about the raw performance of our chips vs. Intel's."
Making the transition will be a herculean task. Apple's goal is to ship a million PowerPC Macs -- about a quarter of its total computer production -- during the year starting next week. Initially, three new Macs will be introduced, with the least expensive reported to retail at about $2,000. The following year Apple expects three quarters of the machines it sells to use the new chips. By 1996, the company hopes to have transferred its entire computer line to PowerPC. Between then and now the trick is to position customers for the new machines while persuading them to continue buying existing Macintoshes. Prospective Mac customers may also delay purchases in order to evaluate the new products. Meanwhile, owners of current high-end Macs will be able to upgrade with a new add-in board that contains a PowerPC.
Apple's major problem is that Macintosh software applications, such as word processing, spreadsheets and desktop publishing, the programs people buy computers to run, are written specifically for Motorola's 68000 family of chips. To make existing software run on PowerPC, the new Macs will contain a special program called an emulator that is the computer equivalent of simultaneous translation from English, say, to Chinese in United Nations debates. The emulator converts Motorola code to PowerPC code so software written for today's Macs will also run on the new ones. The industry buzz is that Apple's emulators are excellent. The hitch is that programs that run in emulation mode won't go any faster than they would on a regular Mac. One big advantage is that DOS and Windows programs will run under emulation, though, again, not as fast as on the Intel chips that they were designed for.
Speed. Programs written in native code forthe PowerPC, however, should blaze at two to four times present Mac speed, particularly multimedia and publishing applications for whichApple's computers have been famous. Apple says more than 50 major software programs written for the new chip should be available at the rollout from vendors like WordPerfect and Lotus. Microsoft, which sold $265 million worth of Mac applications in 1992, will also write for the new machines as it has all along. "It's one of our best businesses," says Microsoft's Pete Higgins. "If you want to be in the Mac business, you have to do them all -- and it's not that hard." Apple is banking on Microsoft having PowerPC applications of its Word and Excel programs by summer.
Apple is also counting on higher-performance machines, stringent cost cutting and aggressive pricing to boost its 11 percent PC market share. "The goal is absolutely to get above 20 percent in a few years -- a '97, '98 time frame would be my best guesstimate," says Apple's Graziano. "We've been gaining about a point per year for the past three or four years," he adds, "but frankly I'd expected we would be doing better." Wall Street is not so sure. "I don't think the new [PowerPC] processor in and of itself will expand the customer base beyond Apple," says Eugene Glazer, technology analyst at Dean Witter Reynolds, "which is basically going to replace its own customer base." During the transition, most analysts believe the company is in for a bumpy ride.
It's not just Apple, of course, that has pushed huge bets onto the table. IBM may have even more at stake because it plans to use PowerPCs from "palmtops to teraflops" -- or from handheld personal digital assistants to supercomputers with hundreds of PowerPCs -- all able to run similar software. At the high end, such "massively parallel" machines may help Big Blue to breathe life into its ailing mainframe business. IBM, which makes chips for its own use, also hopes to sell PowerPCs. Apple's first PowerPC chips are made by IBM. As a result, Motorola, already soaring in telecommunications and the world's third-largest chip maker, will lose some Apple business. But Motorola hopes to be a major producer of PowerPCs for other computer makers and to embed the chip in devices like engine controllers. By decade's end, Ford plans to put about 6 million PowerPCs a year in its cars, replacing Intel chips.
Knights. Figuratively invoking the old adage, "The enemy of my enemy is my friend," Apple, IBM and Motorola joined hands in 1991 to face off against Intel. The 300 designers of the new PowerPC chips aptly named their project "Somerset" after the English county where the knights of the Round Table met in King Arthur's castle, laid aside their differences and set off in pursuit of the Holy Grail.
In pursuit of a new computer standard, the Somerset group squeezed the five chips that compose the processor in IBM's new RISC System/6000 workstation onto a single piece of silicon. IBM researchers invented the RISC architecture in the 1970s, but it was shelved and Hewlett-Packard was first to use the idea commercially in a
