Hillary Rodham Clinton's brief success as a commodities investor has some experts wondering how she did it.
"For a novice to stay in that long, do that well, leave with $ 100,000 and never come back, that raises my eyebrows. I'd say it's improbable," says Philip Gotthelf, editor of Commodities Futures Forecast.
Between October 1978 and July 1979, Clinton almost perfectly timed major moves in cattle futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
During that time, cattle prices gyrated wildly, first soaring from 55 cents a pound to more than 80 cents a pound, then plunging back close to 60 cents a pound by late July. For the most part, Clinton correctly anticipated - and profited - from both trends.
In a futures contract, one investor agrees to pay another investor for a commodity, such as live cattle. The catch: While payment for the contract occurs immediately, the commodity purchased isn't actually delivered until a future date.
Originally created to let farmers protect themselves from price swings, futures trading has grown into a multibillion-dollar industry. In the late '70s, Hillary Clinton's brokerage firm, Refco Inc., was one of the biggest players in cattle futures. In 1979, she opened another account with Stephens Inc., a Little Rock firm. But most of her trading was done through Refco.
The first lady's success could have been due to her shrewdness, or to that of her adviser, lawyer James Blair. But legal disputes involving her personal broker, Robert "Red" Bone, raise questions.
In December 1979, Bone was banned from the commodities market for three years by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission.
Among the charges: that he credited trades to different customers after he already knew whether those trades had made or lost money. Such allocations, or trade switches, allow brokers to reward favored customers, while leaving others stuck with losses.
Clinton's quick profits, and Bone's record, make Gotthelf think switching could have been part of her success. White House officials deny it.
Refco is also controversial. The firm has been repeatedly fined by the CFTC for trading improprieties. In 1981 and 1982, a number of Arkansas investors sued Refco, charging the broker manipulated the market in cattle futures in the summer and fall of 1979, causing them heavy losses.
Refco was found guilty of those charges by an Arkansas jury, but the verdict was later overturned by a federal appeals court. Attempts to reach Bone and Refco for comment Thursday were unsuccessful.
Disclosure of Clinton's sizable profits is likely to raise political image problems for the White House. It seems to explain why she resisted releasing records documenting her financial transactions.
White House adviser George Stephanopoulos downplays the issue, saying her decision showed the White House was cooperating with demands for information "1,000%."
"So what?" Stephanopoulos says of the trades. "She was good and she was lucky."
But Hillary Clinton's windfall has provided ammunition to opponents who question her efforts to present herself as a lawyer concerned solely with improving the public good.
Unlike the murky details of Whitewater, the fact that Hillary Clinton made a 100-fold return on a $ 1,000 investment is the kind of easy-to-grasp fact that will no doubt prove tempting to both late-night comedians and political opponents. Contributing: Dennis Cauchon
First lady's favorability
A new USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup poll shows Hillary Rodham Clinton's is viewed unfavorably by the highest percentage of respondents since President Bill Clinton took office. The results in Tuesday's paper were mislabeled. Percentage viewing her favorably and unfavorably:
Favorable Unfavorable
Jan. 31, 1993 67% 22%
March 27, 1994 52% 42%
Shifts in first lady's support Hillary Clinton's support with women fell 9 percentage points from a poll earlier this month. Shifts in support:
