President Clinton's cautious, low-key public response to North Korea's downing of a U.S. helicopter, and the holding of an Army flier, underscores the fragility of relations between the two countries.
Analysts say Clinton's delicate approach signals that he's fearful of saying or doing anything that might upset the U.S.-North Korea nuclear agreement reached in October, or give the communist regime an excuse to return to more belligerent behavior.
"We're not saying much, and I don't imagine that's going to change very soon," says White House spokeswoman Dawn Alexander.
The situation has been tense since Dec. 17, when the Army helicopter with two aboard was shot down after straying into North Korean airspace.
Chief Warrant Officer David Hilemon was killed and Chief Warrant Officer Bobby Hall was taken prisoner.
Hilemon's body has been returned to the USA.
Given concern about North Korea becoming a nuclear power and its history of lawlessness in international relations, analysts suggest Clinton is left with little choice but to walk on eggshells as he quietly tries to gain Hall's release.
"He's being advised to play this sotto voce and bend over backward not to give North Korea an excuse to fog the issue and claim a provocation," says Penn State University's Stephen Cimbala, author of Military Persuasion.
But critics, including Republicans on Capitol Hill, argue that the administration should be more forceful.
"It's been much too long," says Rep. Benjamin Gilman, R-N.Y., incoming chairman of the House International Relations Committee.
And some wonder why it took the U.S. military command in South Korea until Saturday to apologize to Pyongyang for the helicopter's straying into North Korean airspace.
One reason may be that the administration is still uncertain about who's in charge of the communist North Korean government since the death in July of longtime dictator Kim Il Sung.
The fact that the downed pilot was not returned by Christmas may be attributed to a continuing struggle for power within North Korea. There are still doubts whether Kim Il Sung's heir-apparent son, Kim Jong Il, has inherited all the powers of his father.
The North Koreans also may be using the crisis for domestic consumption, eager to convince their public that sacrifices for a large military budget are needed because of the risk posed by U.S. forces in South Korea.
Some think the chaos offers one more reason why it may be prudent for Clinton to exercise rhetorical restraint.
Accordingly, the president has made few public statements on the incident in the 10 days since the downing, none of them threatening. Clinton's last public mention of the incident came Saturday during his Christmas Eve radio address, in which he expressed hope that Hall "will soon be back with his family."
But even that wish didn't come until Clinton first praised the nuclear accord and noted "our firm diplomacy secured an agreement that requires (North Korea) first to freeze and then to dismantle its nuclear program, all under international inspections."
Some at home and abroad are already skeptical of the pact, in which North Korea agreed to stop construction of two nuclear reactors. In exchange, the United States has pledged help in building modern energy-producing light-water reactors, estimated to be worth $4 billion.
One skeptic, former secretary of State Alexander Haig, says the nuclear pact is not and should not be an excuse for timidity in private negotiations.
