By Steve V. Roberts; Linda Rodriguez Bernfeld; Missy Daniel; Jerelyn Eddings; Dorian Friedman; Paul Glastris; Katia Hetter; Scott Minerbrook; Jill Jordan Sieder; Jennifer Seter; Mike Tharp
The forecasts underestimated the storm's strength. Voters across America last week sent Washington a furious message of discontent that tore through the capital and uprooted some of the political establishment's sturdiest pillars. The storm was driven by a chorus of complaints about Americans' lives and leaders: jobs too insecure, wages too sluggish, families too fragmented, streets too dangerous, government too big, taxes too high, lobbyists too powerful, welfare too cushy, illegal aliens too costly, campaigns too nasty, politicians too arrogant. Ilene Frost, a teacher in Philadelphia, offered politicians this advice: "Pay attention to what citizens are saying. Really, truly listen." Added GOP pollster Frank Luntz: "This was a very loud scream from America to Washington which said, `STOP!'"
The nation's political landscape has been transformed. The Republicans picked up some 51 seats in the House of Representatives and won a majority for the first time in 40 years. An eight-seat gain in the Senate, plus the defection of Democrat Richard Shelby of Alabama, gave the GOP a three-vote margin in that chamber. Congressional icons, including House Speaker Thomas Foley of Washington and Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dan Rostenkowski of Illinois, were swept from office. On the state level, the GOP seized at least 10 new governorships, for a total of 30, and extended their control to 18 state legislatures.
The stunning Republican victory bolsters the argument of GOP strategist William Kristol that "the nation's long, slow electoral and ideological realignment with the Republican Party is reaching a watershed." In House elections, 40 percent of the Hispanic votes and 45 percent of the Asian ones went to Republicans, along with 58 percent of the votes of non-Hispanic whites. Blacks, 92 percent of whom voted for Democrats, and Jews (78 percent) remained solidly Democratic. Voter turnout, although it was a paltry 39 percent, was the second-highest in any off- year election since 1974.
Republican dangers. But the triumphant Republicans face dangers as well as opportunities. They could easily make the same mistake President Clinton did: overinterpret their mandate. Exit polls conducted by Voter News Service found that many voters cast ballots against the president and his party, not for the Republicans, and are not eager for a sharp swing to the right or a wholesale dismantlement of the federal government. Says Republican consultant Ed Goeas: "What people want is more effective government." That means the Republicans, who have spent years stirring up anticongressional fervor, now must reform the institution they've helped to discredit.
President Clinton also faces difficult choices. After two years of halfhearted attempts at bipartisanship, he now must work with Republicans to get anything done. Democratic centrists such as Sen. John Breaux of Louisiana are counseling conciliation: "There is too much bickering and too much blame game." But if Clinton moves too far to the center, he risks a rebellion among his party's surviving liberals.
It's 1996 already. Clinton's problems have triggered an intense interest in the GOP presidential nomination for 1996, and the jockeying began the day after the election (story, Page 52). Two potential rivals struck different notes: Senate leader Bob Dole sounded conciliatory, but Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas took a more confrontational tack. Republican governors who won re- election by big margins also emerged as possible contenders. And third-party talk is stirring about such diverse possibilities as the Rev. Jesse Jackson, retired Gen. Colin Powell and Ross Perot, whose followers broke 2 to 1 for the Republicans.
This year's voting also accelerated a trend toward polarization, with the Democrats becoming a more liberal partyand the Republicans moreconservative. Progressive Northeastern Republicans have been losing strength since Barry Goldwater beat Nelson Rockefeller for the 1964 GOP presidential nomination, and last week was a new low for conservative Southern Democrats, who lost 19 House seats to the GOP.
The key to the shift was the white male vote: Only 37 percent voted for the Democrats nationwide, and in Texas only 31 percent did. That trend was punctuated the day after the election by Senator Shelby: "I thought there was room in the Democratic Party for a conservative Southern Democrat such as myself. But I can tell you, there is not." Clinton acknowledged the problem at a post-election news conference: "Republicans did a good job of defining us as the party of government, and that is not a good place to be."
As the political world picks through the returns, the biggest question is this: What were the voters saying? Clinton offered his interpretation: "They still don't like it when they watch what we do here." That's true, but the dissatisfaction has many elements:
Fix the economy. The national recovery has failed to boost the incomes and spirits of many families. "They haven't felt the positive impact of what has been done," says Clinton. Indeed, only one quarter of the voters said their financial condition is better today than it was two years ago. Another quarter said their situation is worse, and they voted Republican by a 64-to-36 margin. One was Charles Malia, an unemployed electrician in Salem, Mass.: "There are a lot of us out here. It's people in their late 40s and early 50s who are losing their jobs. Last year I earned $11,000, and this year I haven't even earned $9,000. There's no work."
Many who do have jobs fear that corporate downsizing will get them next. Penny Wolf, an aerospace computer analyst in Encino, Calif., supports Clinton but says: "If I get laid off, I could be unemployed for years."
Reform health care. Fear of joblessness is heightened by the cost of health care and the fear of losing health insurance. Almost a third of all voters said health care was a factor in their decision and they voted 2 to 1 for Democrats. "Heaven forbid an emergency should come up!" says Kevin Turner, a lab technician in Wilmington, Del.
Save the family. Economic stagnation is placing greater stress on families as parents try to work extra hours and care for their children at the same time. School teacher Ann Clay in Annandale, Va., says some of her third graders don't see their parents until 9 p.m., and Roger Miedema, a plumber in the Chicago suburbs, says: "Mothers should be at home taking care of their kids. But from the time they're born, they're in day care because their mothers are working."
Fight crime. After health care, crime was the biggest issue on voters' minds, and that marginally helped the GOP. Maxime Tawil, a physics professor in the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, explained his vote for Republican Oliver North, one of the GOP's few losers last week: "You go out in the evening and you look over your shoulder. You don't have that kind of confidence." Added Rose Green, 35, a nutritionist in a New Jersey suburb of New York City: "Even here in Montclair, which is a lovely place to raise a child, there is more crime and we're scared."
Prune the government. Half of all voters said they were dissatisfied with the federal government and they voted Republican by a 3-to-2 margin. Benny Payne, a real-estate agent in Athens, Ga., voted to oust Democratic Congressman Don Johnson after supporting him two years ago: "If I ran my business the way the federal government is run, I wouldn't be in business very long." Even liberals like Chris Burke, a lawyer in Salem, Mass., accuse government of getting lax and sloppy: "The U.S. pie is shrinking, and we need to be more competitive."
Reduce benefits. The antigovernment mood is fueled by feelings that government programs benefit other people, not taxpayers. Welfare has long been an irritant, and it still is for Grace
