By Steven V. Roberts; Tim Zimmermann; Matthew Cooper
The irony is unmistakable. As candidate and as president, Bill Clinton has promised to "focus like a laser beam" on the economy, plunged into the minutiae of domestic policy and openly disdained the details of foreign affairs. But on the eve of this year's midterm elections, Clinton finds himself hoping that good news overseas will boost his sagging popularity at home and bolster the prospects of Democratic candidates who face an avalanche of anti-incumbent, pro-Republican sentiment.
Even Clinton's supporters admit that foreign policy is likely to have only a small impact on next month's voting. But they are grateful nonetheless for a string of successes in Haiti, the Middle East, Iraq, North Korea and foreign trade that have brought the first good news in months to a beleaguered White House. In a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released last week, 45 percent approved of Clinton's handling of foreign policy, a 13 point jump in one month. "It certainly reduces marginally the strong anti-Clinton feeling and should marginally help the Democrats," says Democratic Rep. Lee Hamilton of Indiana.
Leaving home. In an attempt to capitalize on this trend, the White House decided -- after heated internal debate -- to scrap Clinton's political schedule. Instead, he's flying to the Middle East this week to witness the signing of a peace accord between Israel and Jordan and make controversial calls on Syrian President Hafez Assad and Palestine Liberation Organization Chairman Yassir Arafat. The joke in the capital is that Clinton is going to the Middle East because he is not wanted in the Middle West, and there is some truth to that. "It's not that he will change votes or dramatically increase his popularity," says Thomas Mann, a political scientist at Washington's Brookings Institution. "But his trip will keep bad political news off the network news."
Yet the president's trip is not just about politics. It also reflects a growing sense that after 18 months of slipping and sliding, Clinton is starting to find his footing in foreign policy. Aides say he is more confident, more decisive and more involved in foreign issues. "You have a White House that is coming across as more organized and getting better results," says Representative Hamilton.
The administration's recent achievements are still tentative. Foreign policy, warns Secretary of State Warren Christopher, is "always a work in progress." Whether Clinton's victories are permanent or temporary will depend in part on whether his accomplishments are merely the products of good luck or a payoff for working harder and acting more decisively. His trip to Damascus is a gamble -- particularly since he is going with no assurances of cooperation from Assad. Significant progress toward a Syrian-Israeli peace would be a major achievement that could help counter the recent wave of terrorism against Israel. But returning empty-handed while terrorist groups based in Syrian-controlled Lebanon continue to attack Israel could be politically embarrassing.
Still, Clinton's recent record is a sharp contrast to the administration's earlier miscues in Somalia, Bosnia and elsewhere:
Iraq. Clinton's quick military response to Saddam Hussein's latest blustering drew praise from all quarters. Perhaps more telling, the president, who sometimes has seemed paralyzed by his desire for Russian support and international consensus, ignored objections from Moscow and joined Great Britain in warning Hussein that any reinforcements sent to southern Iraq would be attacked.
North Korea. Clinton's deal with North Korea, under which Pyongyang promises to give up its nuclear-weapons program in exchange for diplomatic recognition and increased trade, has been criticized as too generous. But in Asia, the agreement is easing fears of a military confrontation and strengthening Clinton's image as a problem solver on the eve of a summit of Asian leaders in Jakarta next month. Haiti. Despite simmering public unhappiness with Clinton's decision to send in American troops, the mission has gone well so far. America's long-term role remains unclear, however, and one disastrous incident could bring public anxiety back to a boil.
The Middle East. While Clinton has not played a major role in the reconciliation between Israel and Jordan, the United States continues to encourage and support the peace process.
Trade. For all his indecision in the use of military muscle, Clinton has been effective in using America's economic power to enhance trade and create jobs. Last month, U.S. exports hit an all-time high and the trade deficit dropped 12.9 percent. Clinton's approach faces an important test next month when Congress returns to consider tariff-cutting amendments to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the global trade pact. In part, these recent victories may reflect a presidential learning curve. "It perhaps should not be surprising that a relatively young president without great experience in foreign affairs is just hitting his stride," says Christopher. Clinton is disciplining himself to avoid the kind of offhand comments that have gotten him in trouble in the past. When he did send troops to Haiti and Kuwait, he dispatched them in overwhelming numbers. Says Richard Haass, a former Bush administration official and the author of Intervention, a new book on military force: "That represents a departure from his policy of a year ago in Haiti, or in Somalia, where the world's only superpower got outgunned by a local warlord."
The president's foreign policy team is also working more smoothly. White House Chief of Staff Leon Panetta is limiting access to the Oval Office and exerting tighter control over the president's tendency to talk every issue to death. A recent West Wing meeting on South Africa, scheduled for an hour, ended within minutes. On another occasion, far-flung officials held a conference call to discuss Russian opposition to a tough United Nations resolution on Iraq. Christopher and his aides were in Haiti; U.N. Ambassador Madeleine Albright was in New York; Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott was in Washington; National Security Adviser Anthony Lake was aboard Air Force One in Florida. Nevertheless, they quickly worked out a strategy -- and in the end, the Iraq resolution won unanimous approval. A year ago, the president's advisers might have temporized, unsettled by the Russian position and unwilling to act without a broad consensus. "The best form of multilateralism sometimes requires unilateral assertions of leadership," says Peter Rodman, a foreign policy adviser to several Republican presidents.
It is this image of a forceful leader that has been so lacking until now. "We've had trouble getting people to see Clinton as a credible president," admits White House political adviser Tony Coelho. Administration officials hope the president's rising foreign policy ratings will lift all Democratic boats: Historical models indicate that for every point the president's job approval rating increases, his party picks up an extra House seat.
Still, American voters are mostly concerned about domestic issues, and traveling abroad means Clinton will have less time to raise money and turn out Democratic voters. But like every president before him, Clinton is discovering that it is easier to deal with foreign leaders than with congressional ones. And with Republicans expected to make big gains next month, Clinton could find the international arena increasingly appealing.
