President Clinton, with an invasion of Haiti now seen as a near-certainty within the next month to six weeks, is set to begin an intensive campaign to sell a wary Congress and nation on his policy.
White House officials are considering a televised speech by Clinton. Briefings for members of Congress begin next week. And Clinton will be talking more and more about his rationale for using military force to restore ousted president Jean-Bertrand Aristide.
"The president will continue to make sure that the American people know what our interests in the region are, as he has throughout this process, and he'll continue to keep them apprised of his plans," said White House press secretary Dee Dee Myers.
But Clinton faces an uphill struggle. A majority of Congress now appears to oppose an invasion. A USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows 52% oppose sending U.S. troops.
"I think the president has a heavy burden of persuasion, not insurmountable, but a heavy burden of persuasion," says Rep. Lee Hamilton, D-Ind., chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
In a series of town meetings in his district, Hamilton, who says he would reluctantly support an invasion, said he didn't "really recall anyone . . . saying they were for an invasion. Most took a posture of skepticism."
Former vice president Dan Quayle, on NBC's Today show, accused Clinton of plotting an invasion "to try to increase his standing in the public opinion polls." Myers called that suggestion "ridiculous."
The White House seems to have decided not to seek a formal vote by Congress on an invasion but instead will follow the model of consultations used by President Bush before the 1989 invasion of Panama.
But Clinton needs at least the appearance of support from Capitol Hill and the public before he launches an invasion that could leave U.S. troops in Haiti for months or years.
On a couple of occasions in the past several months, Clinton sketched out his basic rationale, and those points will make up his appeal in the next few weeks. Among them:
-- Haiti's closeness to the USA and the continuing concern about a refugee exodus.
-- The use of Haiti as a staging point for drug smugglers.
-- Fear for the safety of several thousand U.S. citizens, and as many as 8,000 with dual citizenship, living in Haiti.
-- The importance of supporting democracy and free elections in our hemisphere.
-- The increasing brutality of the Haitian junta - "people who murder, who kill, who rape, who maim," as Clinton described them in his Aug. 4 prime-time news conference.
Hamilton and others say some of those points can be effective, particularly the increase of violence and the threat to Americans.
Sen. Bob Graham, D-Fla., urges Clinton to stress the importance of not allowing a military junta to defy the United States, sending a dangerous message to similar regimes such as Cuba's Fidel Castro.
"When it appears as if the democracies are willing to accommodate and placate a dictatorship, it emboldens other dictatorships," Graham says.
"I believe that one of the reasons Castro picked August of 1994 to open the floodgates again . . . is in part because he observed what we have thus far failed to do in Haiti."
Clinton also will need to deal with as yet unanswered questions of many in Congress from both parties, such as what the role of the United Nations will be, how much will an extended military commitment to Haiti cost and whether Aristide really favors such an intervention.
And he also will have to try to cut through the general public perception of his foreign policy as scattershot and influenced by domestic concerns.
Republican pollster Frank Luntz says that with Clinton, "what the public sees is a president who doesn't care a lot about foreign policy."
On Haiti, Luntz says: "The moment that we invade there will be a rallying around the president. His popularity will go up a few points and the public will be hesitant in its criticism. But it's not going to last."
Opinions on Cuba, Haiti Most people say Haitian and Cuban refugees should not be allowed into the USA, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows. Just over half would send troops to invade Haiti, along with troops fromother nations. The poll:
Most say don't allow refugees into the USA
Cubans Haitians
Should 16% 23%
Should not 79% 73%
People split on sending troops to Haiti
Don't send troops 52%
Send troops with other countries 44%
...and majority would not send troops to Cuba
Don't send troops at all 57%
Send troops with other countries 30%
Send troops without other countries 11%
Embargo against Cuba gains favor
Favor Oppose
Dec. '93 66% 26%
June '94 70% 24%
Majority oppose closer ties to Cuba Limit diplomatic ties 59%
