PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti -- The Clinton administration is looking at a new political settlement in Haiti that focuses on army chief of staff Brig. Gen. Philippe Biamby as transitional ruler to guide Haiti's return to democracy.
The decision to back Biamby rests:
-- On the clear support for him by soldiers, many worried about their future if deposed president Jean Bertrand-Aristide returns.
-- On the belief he is the least likely of the ruling troika to be persuaded to surrender power.
Biamby made that clear Monday claiming "this country will keep resisting" international sanctions aimed at bringing down the military regime.
Barring unexpected developments, the U.S. plan for now is to let sanctions simmer through the hot Haitian summer and defer action until late August or early September.
Meanwhile, U.S. Coast Guard cutters intercepted 1,330 Haitian boat people on the high seas Monday. The new exodus folllows President Clinton's more-liberal policy toward Haitian refugees.
Acting Organization of American States Secretary-General Christopher Thomas, from Trinidad-Tobago, said during a visit to Puerto Rico Monday he's confident intensified sanctions will provoke Haiti's military leaders to step down without a U.S. invasion: "The more recent measures by President Clinton . . . are likely to lead to a reconsideration by the military."
Biamby, 41, is the least visible of the three junta leaders, letting army chief Lt. Gen. Raoul Cedras be the out-front spokesman for the regime and Port-au-Prince police chief Lt. Col. Michel Francois run the hard-line operations.
Even though Cedras is considered the most moderate and reasonable by U.S. officials, his departure is necessary for a symbolic demonstration that the coup is ended.
Cedras has said he will step down when his term as commander of the armed forces expires in October, The New York Times reports today.
Francois, considered the most powerful of the three, is tainted by his purported connections to drug trafficking.
As Haiti's crisis has deepened and friction has developed at times between Cedras and Francois, Biamby has served as the mediator.
Biamby holds strong anti-U.S. views, maybe because he was held for several months in a U.S. immigration jail.
Despite that, U.S. officials say Biamby is the most likely to accept a political deal.
From what is known, the new Clinton approach isn't really that new, but rather a mix of older ideas with several new initiatives. The key points:
-- The notion of a split within the ruling military troika.
-- The idea the newest round of sanctions, coupled with pressure from some in the upper class, will trigger a negotiated settlement.
-- The continued promise of amnesty for the three junta leaders and other army members involved in the September 1991 coup that ousted Aristide.
-- The suggestion that the army will not be purged of anti-democratic elements.
The policy addresses several ideas regarding Haiti, including the Pentagon's strong opposition to a military invasion and the growing frustration within the White House that Aristide is following an inconsistent, murky and obstinate pattern in trying to reach a settlement.
But all game plans regarding Haiti must be considered tentative, at best, because of U.S. domestic politics and the volatile nature of various individuals and elements in Haiti, including Aristide.
Reported plans for the United States to arrange for the ruling troika to be paid off by contributions from Haiti's upper class appear to have been abandoned.
To increase pressure, the Clinton administration is expected to revoke most non-immigrant visas held by Haitian citizens as a means of further isolating the country's military regime. The action will be limited essentially to visas issued to Haitians inside Haiti.
Those sanctions are symbolic because commercial air traffic between the USA and Haiti was banned last week.
But the recent tightening of sanctions appears to have yielded some results.
As those sanctions begin to sink in, Haitians, including many who once opposed Aristide, are grudgingly admitting that the time has come for a political solution, even if it means Aristide's return.
