A exodus of Haitians may increase the chances of a U.S. military invasion
by Linda Robinson, Bruce B. Auster, Kathie Klarreich
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The race is on to see who will leave Haiti first: the country's military rulers, facing veiled threats of a U.S. invasion from the Clinton administration and a full-court press of international sanctions, or thousands of Haitians fleeing in small boats to the Windward Passage, where they hope patrolling U.S. Coast Guard cutters will pick them up and carry them to freedom.
The refugees appear to be winning. Well over 5,000 took to the sea in the last week, despite pleas from U.S. officials that they seek asylum at three processing centers in Haiti. Just when the White House was hoping that Haiti's military rulers were feeling the heat of sanctions, the sudden exodus has shifted the pressure back onto the United States, which opened the Guantanamo Bay Naval Base in Cuba last week to cope with the outflow. "We cannot absorb this magnitude of outflow indefinitely," concedes a senior State Department official. "That raises the urgency of finding a resolution to the problem."
But while White House officials express surprise at the number of Haitians taking to their boats, the administration's own policies have helped trigger the new surge of emigrants. Tighter economic sanctions and Bill Clinton's inability so far to unseat Haiti's military make life in Haiti even more unbearable, and the promise of more-liberal U.S. immigration procedures is encouraging Haitians to take their chances, both with the ocean and with U.S. immigration officials.
Field of dreams. The surge began days after a U.S. naval ship started processing Haitian refugees in Jamaican waters -- a new procedure announced by Clinton May 8 in response to criticism that his policy of returning fleeing Haitians was inhumane and racist. "Put a Coast Guard ship on the horizon and they will come. It's their field of dreams," says a Pentagon official critical of the decision to open offshore processing centers.
Further encouragement to take to the sea comes from the fact that asylum petitions made aboard the USS Comfort are being approved at a relatively generous rate of 30 percent. Of the first 1,111 Haitians processed there, 338 received asylum. By contrast, since the processing centers in Haiti were opened in February 1992, only 3,875 out of 58,793 inquiries have been approved, a rate of 6.6 percent.
Guantanamo may prove to be an even more powerful magnet. "I've seen this movie before, and I don't like it," says a State Department official. In late 1991 more than 6,000 Haitians quickly besieged Guantanamo; by May 1992, 14,000 had been sent home, but the base was still bursting with more than 12,500 refugees.
Haitians say they are taking to small craft now simply to make contact with U.S. vessels. "They are using boats that can't reach Miami. They go out so they can get picked up," says dockworker Carmelo Loiseau. There reportedly are enough boats in Haiti to carry 100,000 people, and more are being built in the coastal town of Luly.
Another processing center is due to open soon on Grand Turk Island, and the Bahamas is close to agreeing to provide additional facilities. U.S. special adviser on Haiti William Gray says six countries "have expressed a willingness to consider taking Haitian refugees." But the Grand Turk center will accommodate only 2,000, and so far no country has firmly agreed to resettle Haitians granted asylum. Florida, the preferred destination of many Haitians, is already reeling from the impact of the newcomers: Each day, 20 immigrant children enter South Florida schools, and Gov. Lawton Chiles has sued the federal government to recoup the politically important state's expenditures on previous waves of Haitians.
More sticks. Growing repression will only aggravate the outflow. According to the International Civilian Mission that is monitoring human-rights abuses in Haiti, in the first five months of this year 296 Haitians have been killed, 91 have disappeared and 17 have been raped because of their political views.
Haiti's strongmen remain publicly defiant in the face of American pressure. Army Chief of Staff Philippe Biamby insisted last week that sanctions will not bring down the regime. One of the hard-line general's former schoolmates is not surprised by such defiance: He claimed to U.S. News that as a boy Biamby once shot himself with his father's pistol to avoid doing his homework.
Police chief Col. Michel Francois is said to be pushing Lt. Gen. Raoul Cedras, Haiti's military commander, to resign. But one U.S. official warns that this will not solve the problem: "If one wants to get rid of the other, that's fine; but they all have to go." Special adviser Gray ruled out the prospect of negotiating with Francois, telling Congress last week: "General Cedras and his colleagues will not be given any more chances."
But with ousted President Jean-Bertrand Aristide opposing U.S. military intervention, supporters of the military are taking heart. "Aristide is not coming back, period, so Clinton has to find another way to solve the problem," says Haitian Sen. Bernard Sansaricq, a leading coup supporter. "General Cedras will resign as scheduled [in October], and we'll go ahead with our elections," adds a Haitian official.
If the flight by sea continues, however, U.S. military intervention could become the only option. High-level meetings on Haiti took place at the White House late last week, with the refugee crisis the only public explanation. But U.S. forces, including elements of the 82nd Airborne Division, special operations units and the 24th Infantry Division (Mechanized), remain on alert. "The refugee flow can only be managed and cannot be resolved until there is a transition to democracy," says an administration official. By voting the only way they can -- with their boats -- ordinary Haitians are raising the pressure on the White House to force that transition.
