This Friday, October 14, a committee of wise men and women in Oslo, Norway, will announce the winner of the 1994 Nobel Peace Prize. The clear favorites, according to folks who handicap such things, seem to be former President Jimmy Carter, for his diplomatic efforts in North Korea and Haiti, and two Israelis (Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres) and one Palestinian (Yassir Arafat) for their conciliations in the Middle East. Conspicuously absent among the front-runners is Nelson Mandela -- understandable, perhaps, since the Republic of South Africa's new president shared the 1993 Nobel with F.W. de Klerk, his predecessor and partner in bringing genuine democracy to their country. Too bad: Mandela richly deserves the honor again.
Carter's claim is fairly obvious. Denied the prize during his presidency, despite his brokering of the Camp David Accords, he has carved out a useful spot for himself as sometime election monitor (in Nicaragua and Panama) and freelance diplomat (North Korea and Haiti). But his case is hardly unsullied: He has come under fire for hijacking U.S. foreign policy, although President Clinton must share the blame for subcontracting it in the first place. In this race, Jimmy Carter should be the "show" horse, finishing third.
Rabin, Peres and Arafat get high marks for making "the Middle East peace process" more than a windy oxymoron. Palestinians now rule Jericho, the first step in a wider autonomy plan for the West Bank. Jordan and Israel are turning a cold war into a hot peace, and there are even some signs that Hafez Assad's Syria may relax its belligerence and finally come around. Give the Israelis and Palestinians a solid second place.
Then there is Mandela, who visited America last week to appeal for investment in South Africa, meet with Clinton and make a historic address to a joint session of Congress. At first, it may seem odd to promote Mandela for a second peace prize. His transcendent accomplishment, it can be argued, was his role in dismantling apartheid and laying the foundation for democratic pluralism in a nation with no experience at it. Yes, April balloting went swimmingly, but the intoxicating joy that swept across the land immediately after the elections has long since dissipated as South Africans, black and white alike, sober to their country's daunting problems. This remains a country, after all, where street crime is rampant and widespread poverty undiminished. In many respects, the republic is what it was before the end of apartheid: two societies, separate and unequal -- one Third World and black, the other First World and white.
Expecting Mandela to begin the next chapter in South African history in a mere six months was ludicrous. What he has done, however, is remarkable given concerns about black-on-black violence and armed resistance by the radical white right. Mandela has continued to reassure both blacks and whites that he is committed to a reconciled, colorblind South Africa. And he has plainly got the message across. Confrontations between Mandela's African National Congress and the Inkatha Freedom Party, which bloodied each other for years, have all but disappeared. White threats have also declined.
In public-opinion polls, Mandela's approval rating among whites is running at 60 percent, and he is almost as popular among them as is de Klerk, now one of two deputy presidents. Nearly two thirds of South Africans believe race relations are improving.
Meantime, U.S. companies are returning to the republic. More than 160 are represented there now, compared with 104 in 1991; that is well below the levels of the presanctions era, and many newcomers are not making major investments. But the prospects may be changing. Earlier this month, Moody's Investors Service gave South Africa an investment rating a cut above junk bonds. Standard & Poor's rated South Africa just below investment grade, but the split should not prevent Pretoria from borrowing in capital markets.
Nelson Mandela is no saint. He is a pragmatist who understands both the exercise and limits of his power. But what he has managed, as much after April as before, raises him to a level few public figures in this century have attained. He is a leader of unchallenged moral standing who also possesses the qualities of his country's most precious assets -- the unyielding strength of diamonds, the timeless grace and authority of gold. In this race for peace, he is a thoroughbred for the ages.
