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FOOTBALL FORECAST - VERSION 3.7 COPYRIGHT(C) 1989..1992 __________________________________________________________ Football Forecast has proved both a popular and successful pools prediction system. The software is suitable for all IBM compatible Personal Computers. W. A. HUNTER, 28 MACBETH ROAD, DUNFERMLINE, FIFE. KY11 4EG. ___________________________________________________________ MAIN FEATURES OF FOOTBALL FORECAST PREDICTIONS Forecasts Draws, plus Home and Away Wins for matches on Pools and Fixed Odds Coupons. PERMUTATIONS Provides perm lists of selected predictions. FORM GUIDE Displays and compares the form of each of the home and away teams for every fixture. FIXED ODDS Estimates odds for all possible results. Input bookies' odds and know your payout. PREDICTION Many variables are considered. These may be FORMULA 'weighted' at a level set by the user. RESULTS Simple and rapid data entry. Use mouse or UPDATE keyboard to select from the displayed teams. LEAGUE Facility to input end of season promotions CHANGES and relegations. Also introduce new teams. STATISTICS Statistically analyse success of forecasts. Various 'Facts and Figures' are provided. SHAREWARE DISK FILES 'Football Forecast' files use around 350K of disk space ..... FF.EXE Load this program to run Football Forecast. FFTEXT Menus, Messages, etc used within the programs. FFMATCH Details of Predictions for statistical analysis. RECORDS The Football Forecast Data File of past results. FFINSTAL Installation instructions set by program user. GO.BAT Enter GO to display instructions on READ.ME file. READ.ME Instructions to print the Handbook & Order Form. FFORDER.DOC The Football Forecast Registration & Order Form. FFHB.DOC Extracts from the Football Forecast Handbook. ( The program & data require approximately 400K of free RAM ) STARTING OFF First of all make a 'working copy' of the most important files before you start using the program. Only the files FF.EXE, FFTEXT, FFMATCH, FFINSTAL & RECORDS, need be copied to your working disk for the program to run. You may if you wish install this program to create a 'backup' copy of the RECORDS FILE, the program database. BUT FIRST MAKE CERTAIN THERE IS ENOUGH SPACE ON YOUR WORKING DISK ( ABOUT 30K ) TO HOLD THIS EXTRA DATA in addition to the other files. If you find that disk space is limited then EXCLUDE THE FFHB.DOC FILE ( text instructions ) from your working disk. Disks should NOT BE 'write protected' as match results and other important data are regularly saved to file. Use your prepared copy of the diskette. Type 'FF' at the DOS prompt then press the 'Enter' key. Be patient, there are several text & data files to be loaded. Some information is provided about the program. The type of display card for which the program is currently installed is mentioned. The default setting is for CGA, EGA & VGA compatible screens ( to install the program to your requirements press the keys 'Alt/I' - see installation instructions below ). Press the 'space bar' and the Football Forecast MAIN MENU will appear. INSTALLING FOOTBALL FORECAST The program may be installed for Display type, Sound on/off, the provision of a backup copy of the RECORDS data file, and the use of a Mouse. At the start of the program - before the Main Menu appears - press 'Alt/I' then select ..... DISPLAY ..... Choose '1' for CGA, EGA, VGA and compatibles. This includes displays with mono screens which provide a full range of shades of grey. Select '2' for MDA cards and other monitors which have limited, or are without, shading. 'HIGHLIGHTING' may not be visible if the wrong setting is selected for your system ! SOUND ....... The input of data is accompanied by a variety of sounds which are used to draw attention to various 'messages' and instructions given throughout the program. It is recommended that the sound is retained by selecting '3'; but it may be switched off if '4' is pressed. BACKUP ...... To obtain a backup copy of the data file choose '6'. However make sure that there is enough space on your diskette to accept this extra file of about 30K. It is probably sufficient to make only occassional backup. So the recommended setting is '5' - backup 'OFF'. MOUSE ....... Select for mouse operation. Your mouse driver program must of course first be installed. Press '7' for 'NO' mouse, and '8' for 'YES'. KEY 'ALT/M' IS SELECTED TO SET MOUSE SENSITIVITY / SPEED. MAIN MENU Select by keying the INITIAL letter ........ PREDICT Forecasts of Draws, Homes, Aways. Form and Odds. RESULTS Update the database with the latest Match Results. CHANGES Promotions and Relegations at the season's end. STATS Statistical Analysis of the succees of forecasts. ORDER Registration details. Order form can be printed. HELP General Help information to run Football Forecast. EXIT Return to your computer's Operating System. MENU SELECTION AND DATA ENTRY Generally menu selections such as those from the MAIN MENU are made by keying the first letter of the option required. Alternatively make certain selections by using the arrow keys, or mouse, to move the menu highlighting to the chosen option, then press the 'Enter' key. To this end it may be helpful to adjust the monitor brightness or contrast until the highlighting is most clearly visible. The arrow keys or the mouse may be used to enter data. MOUSE settings are such that clicking one mouse button is equivalent to pressing the 'Enter' key on the keyboard, and another to using the 'ESC' key. Use the mouse to move the highlighting then press the 'Enter' button to input the data. 'ESC' is used to cancel an entry. If a mouse is not available then simply use 'arrow', 'Enter' and 'Esc' keys. MESSAGES AND PRINTING Throughout the program a 'message window' gives information and instructions. Messages are drawn to your attention with a short 'beep' and a 'flashing square' by the message text. You may also be required to answer a question with a yes or no. Respond by pressing 'y' or 'n' as appropriate. It is possible to print out all prediction displays by selecting 'COPY' from the PREDICTION OPTIONS MENU. You will be asked to check that the printer is ready. Is it switched on and loaded with paper ? If so then press 'y'. You will find that all prediction printouts fit within a single A4 sheet. Some of the statistics displays may also be printed. FOOTBALL FORECAST PREDICTIONS _____________________________ Pressing 'S' at the PREDICTION MENU leads to the display of those teams comprising the English Premier Division, as figure 1 shows. You may now input the matches for prediction, up to a total of 60 lines. You are prompted to enter the home then away team for the first fixture on the coupon. Input teams by moving the highlighting to the desired team name then press 'Enter'. Continue to input home and away teams for each game. Take particular care that the correct team names are entered against each line number. If there is no data for a team, press the 'space bar'. The message 'no record' appears. Incorrect entries are cancelled by pressing the 'ESC' key. If you should input the same team as playing both at home and away an error message will appear to that effect. Similarly, inputing the same team more than once, although on different lines, results in an appropriate message. Press 'Q' to QUIT prediction input. Figure 1 - Input of Matches for Prediction. -------- ENGLAND - PREM ------------------ INPUT ---------- | | | | Arsenal Man. City Tottenhm | MATCHES FOR PREDICTION | | | | | A. Villa Man. Utd Wimbledn |------------------------| | | Line, Teams - | | Blackburn Middlsbro | | | | 1. ? | | Chelsea Norwich | | | | | | Coventry Nott. For | | | | | | Crystal P Oldham | | | | | | Everton Sheff Utd | | | |------------------------| | Ipswich Sheff Wed | Message - | | | | | Leeds South'ton ( SCOT.2 ) | Enter the Matches | | | | | Liverpool Wimbledon ( ENGL.1 ) | to be FORECAST | | | | --( Q-quit Ins-matches Esc-cancel P-prediction display )-- F1-EngP F2-Eng1 F3-Eng2 F4-Eng3 F5-ScoP F6-Sco1 F7-Sco2 F9-Others F10-Help There are two ways to change the league display as you input the fixture list ......... 1. Press the appropriate function key, as shown below, and labelled at the bottom of the computer screen F1 - ENGLAND PREMIER F2 - ENGLAND ONE F3 - ENGLAND TWO F4 - ENGLAND THREE F5 - SCOTLAND PREMIER F6 - SCOTLAND ONE F6 - SCOTLAND TWO F9 - OTHERS ( see below ) F1 - VAUX.CONFERENCE F2 - DIADORA PREM. F3 - BEAZER HOMES F4 - HFS LOAN PREM. F9 - OTHERS Note that pressing 'F9' enables you to alternate between the major and minor league displays. 2. Move the highlighting to one of the two bracketed division names and then press the 'Enter' key. The name of the league division currently displayed appears at the top of the computer screen. Once input is complete then press 'P' for PREDICTIONS and confirm with key 'y'. If you want to include the WEEK NUMBER, as given on the Pools Coupon, then do so now. This will appear on the prediction printouts. INSERTING MATCHES Previously saved match forecasts, see 'Saving Predictions', may be re-inserted as often as required. However it should be noted that such insertions will overwrite other matches you may have previously input in the way described above. Press the 'Ins' key and a display of the kind shown in Figure 2 is provided. You may then use the 'PgUp' & 'PgDn' keys to display the blocks of up to sixty saved matches. For each block the date upon which the matches were saved, the number of lines, and the 'User SetUp' at the time of saving are shown. For each match the line number and the saved match prediction is displayed. Select the block you wish to insert by pressing the 'Enter' key and confirm with key 'y'. All lines within that block will be inserted. If there is enough space you may then add additional teams. If it is decided that a block is not to be entered, press the 'Esc' and/or the 'Ins' key to return to the input of individual team names from leagues as described above. Figure 2 - Inserting Matches for Prediction. --------- INSERT MATCHES ----------------- INPUT ---------- | | | | Date : 5 - 4 - 91 Lines : 58 | MATCHES FOR PREDICTION | | | | | SetUp : User ( 2 2 8 3 8 2 ) |------------------------| | | Line, Teams - | | 1 Chelsea Luton (home) | | | | 1. ? | | 2 Coventry Derby (draw) | | | | | | 3 Millwall Man. City (away) | | | | | | 4 Nott. For Tottenham (away) | | | | | | 5 Sheff. Wed South'ton (draw) | | | |------------------------| | 6 Blackburn Plymouth (home) | Message - | | | | | 7 Bournem'th Swindon (away) | Display block then | | | | | 8 Leeds Bradford (home) | press 'Enter' key. | | | | --( Q-quit Ins-leagues PgUp,PgDn or Enter-display block )-- F10-help PREDICTION OPTIONS MENU --------------------- Once you have input the | | | fixture list type 'P'. | DRAW | USER | Then, if you wish, enter | | | the WEEK NUMBER. The next |----------|----------| display will show the | | | total lines input and the | HOME | AWAY | number of draws, homes and | | | aways predicted. Now |----------|----------| select from the PREDICTION | | | OPTIONS MENU - figure 3. | FORM | ODDS | Return to this OPTIONS menu | | | at any time by pressing |----------|----------| 'ESC', which you must do | | | before keying 'Q' to QUIT | NEXT | BACK | predictions. This initial | | | display also shows whether |----------|----------| you have yet saved the | | | current block of predictions. | SKIP | COPY | | | | Figure 3. --------------------- DRAWS, HOMES OR AWAYS SELECTION ..... Select 'DRAW', 'HOME' or 'AWAY' from the menu. You are asked the number of predictions you require - up to a maximum of 15. ( Less if there are fewer matches ). Select 'AWAY', for example, to obtain a display of the kind shown in figure 4, with coupon line numbers and team names. USER INPUT ..... If there should be less than the required number of predictions you may add extra using your own judgement; ie USER INPUT, see line 11 in figure 4. PERMUTATIONS ...... Where there are more than 3 predictions you are asked if permutations are required - if so then input the number. For example with 5 lines you can have 2 to 4 permutations. Figure 5 shows all perms of 3 from 5, a total of 10. Up to 150 permutations can be displayed. DISPLAY & PRINT ...... Move between the screen displays, as numbered in the message window, by selecting 'NEXT', 'BACK' or 'SKIP'. Print with 'COPY' ( see further notes below ). Note that it is the 'best' of the available draws, or the most highly rated of the homes or aways, which are selected for display when the required number of forecasts is input. ------------ AWAY WINS ----------- Figure 4. | | | line home away | Only four aways | | were predicted by | 6 Newcastle Charlton | the computer. The | 11 * Bournemouth Sunderland | extra line 11 was | 23 Bristol C. Chester | judged by the user | 38 Rochdale Burnley | to be a potential | 58 Arbroath Albion R. | away win and then | | added to the list. ----* User------21st January 1990- ------------ AWAY WINS ----------- | | Figure 5. | Permutations of 3 from 5 | | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 | There are a total | | of 10 permutatons | 6 6 6 6 6 6 11 11 11 23 | of 3 from 5 lines. | 11 11 11 23 23 38 23 23 38 38 | The program can | 23 38 58 38 58 58 38 58 58 58 | display up to 150 | | such permutations. ----------------21st January 1990- FUNCTION KEYS. The Function Keys, as labelled at the bottom of the computer screen, are used as follows ...... KEY 'F1' To return to the PREDICTION displays of draws, homes or aways, and permutations, as described above. KEY 'F2' FORM GUIDE for the predicted draws, homes & aways. KEY 'F3' allows the user to input FIXED ODDS values and display the cost of bets and level of payouts. 'ESC' takes you back to the PREDICTION OPTIONS MENU, fig-3. FORM Select 'FORM' from the PREDICTION OPTIONS MENU and a screen display appears of all predictions from the fixture list. Figure 6 shows such a display for 15 predicted results. ------------------- FORM GUIDE ---------------------- | | | line home away predict | | | | 1 Liverpool Middlesbro home 1 | | 2 Nott. For. Q.P.R. home 8 | | 3 Sheff. Wed. Tottenham away 2 | | 4 Birmingham Blackburn away 1 | | 5 Bournem'th Bradford C. DRAW | | 6 Blackpool Bolton away 3 | | 7 Brentford Bristol C. home 7 | | 8 Darlington Exeter DRAW | | 9 Grimsby Hartlepool home 5 | | 10 Celtic Dundee home 3 | | 11 Rangers Hamilton home 2 | | 12 Dunfermline Forfar home 6 | | 13 Kilmarnock Queen of S. home 4 | | 14 Alloa Berwick home 9 | | 15 Cowdenbeath E. Stirling home 10 | | | ------------------------------------------------------ Figure 6. Line numbers and team names are shown in addition to the prediction. Note that the number following the 'home' and 'away' predictions provides an indication of the 'relative' rating of each of the predictions; not an 'absolute' value. The 'best bet' homes or aways are numbered from 1 onwards. Draws are not rated in this way although, what are judged to be the best of the predicted draws are chosen when 'DRAW' is selected from the Prediction Options Menu. KEY 'F1' Return to the FORM display described above. KEY 'F2' Provides a FORM GUIDE for every match. Consider Figure 7 below. The home team, in coupon line 7, is Aston Villa from the English Premier. They play Birmingham, a side from Division 1. Aston Villa's 'HOME FORM' shows that of the last 6 games they won 2, lost 3, drew 1. Scores are given. Note that the LATEST home result, a 1 - 1 draw, is found on the left. Aston Villa are shown to have scored a total of 5 goals and lost 7 goals in their last 6 home games. The average numbers of goals for and against in the English Premier for 6 home games are 8.45 and 5.85 respectively. There is a similar display of the 'AWAY FORM' for the team playing away from home. Note that Birmingham's last away result was a 2 - 1 victory. This team has scored a total of 8 away goals and lost 12. It can also be seen that the total number of away goals scored and lost over the last six games in Division One averages 5.88 and 8.00 respectively. Note that brief details are also given of the 'AWAY FORM' of the home team and the 'HOME FORM' of the away team over six games. Again the latest result is on the left. The totals of goals scored and lost by each team are given plus the division averages for the last 6 games. The total number of wins, losses and draws over the period of the 'LAST 12 GAMES' are shown for each team and the average number of goals per game calculated. This completes that data concerning the 'RECENT FORM' of the teams. 'TEAM POINTS' refers to the number of points allocated to each team as a consequence of league performances over a greater period - what may be regarded as 'CONTINUOUS FORM'. Aston Villa have accumulated 1164 points & Birmingham 1105. Under this heading also see the number of teams in the division and the average team points for that division, generally 1000. The range of division team points is shown. Finally, the following information is provided - the coupon 'LINE' number, the fact that this is a 'Local Derby' match and that Aston Villa represents the 'Best Home Win' on the fixture list. The computer forecast 'ODDS' are also given. ----------------------- FORM GUIDE ---------------------- | ASTON VILLA England.P | BIRMINGHAM England.1 | |--------HOME FORM-----------|--------AWAY FORM-----------| | L W L W L D total div. | W D W L D L total div. | | 1 2 0 1 1 0 5 8.45 | 2 2 1 1 1 1 8 5.88 | | 1 0 3 0 2 0 7 5.85 | 1 2 0 3 1 5 12 8.00 | |--------AWAY FORM-----------|--------HOME FORM-----------| | LDWLLW for 4 ag. 7 | DWLWDD for 11 ag. 4 | | div.( 6.00) ( 8.75) | div.( 8.17) ( 6.00) | |------LAST 12 GAMES---------|------LAST 12 GAMES---------| | W = 4 L = 6 D = 2 | W = 5 L = 3 D = 4 | | Average Goals per Game | Average Goals per Game | | for 0.75 ag. 1.17 | for 1.58 ag. 1.33 | |--------TEAM POINTS---------|--------TEAM POINTS---------| | 1164 teams 20 av.1000 | 1105 teams 24 av.1000 | | div. range 450 to 2331 | div. range 464 to 1392 | |---------------------------------------------------------| | Coupon Line - 7 Local Derby Best Home Win | | Prediction - HOME | | ODDS : Home 10/21 Draw 11/4 Away 9/2 | --------------------------------------------------------- Figure 7. KEYS 'F3' A display of TEAM POINTS and MEAN GOAL DIFFERENCE per team. Rank teams under P-points or G-goals as required. KEY 'F4' Shows for each division, rankings under RECENT HOME or AWAY form. MOST RECENT GAME TO LEFT OF SIX. KEY 'F5' Rank teams according to success in LAST HOME or AWAY GAME. As with 'F4', press H-home or A-away to rank. ODDS Select 'ODDS' from the PREDICTION OPTIONS MENU and display the computer calculated odds for a home win, draw and away win for each of the fixtures. The predicted result is also indicated. These odds are provided for comparison purposes and represent those you might expect from a betting shop. Of course the poorer the given odds the more likely it is considered a particular result will occur - see figure 8. -------------------- FIXED ODDS ------------------------- | | | home draw away | | | | 1 1/4 Liverpool 3/1 Middlesbro 6/1 H | | 2 5/9 Nott. For. 11/4 Q.P.R. 4/1 H | | 3 2/1 Sheff. Wed. 11/5 Tottenham 1/1 A | | 4 21/10 Birmingham 2/1 Blackburn 1/1 A | | 5 5/4 Bournem'th 9/4 Bradford C. 7/4 D | | 6 13/8 Blackpool 11/5 Bolton 11/8 A | | 7 8/15 Brentford 11/4 Bristol C. 9/2 H | | 8 5/6 Darlington 5/2 Exeter 13/5 D | | 9 4/11 Grimsby 3/1 Hartlepool 5/1 H | | 10 1/4 Celtic 3/1 Dundee 6/1 H | | 11 1/4 Rangers 3/1 Hamilton 6/1 H | | 12 2/5 Dunfermline 3/1 Forfar 5/1 H | | 13 4/11 Kilmarnock 3/1 Queen of S. 5/1 H | | 14 4/7 Alloa 11/4 Berwick 4/1 H | | 15 8/11 Cowdenbeath 13/5 E. Stirling 11/4 H | | | ---------------------------------------------------------- Figure 8. FUNCTION KEYS ........ These give the following displays. KEY 'F1' Return to ODDS PREDICTIONS as described above. KEY 'F2' Allows the user to INPUT ODDS given by bookies and to work out the cost and returns for various bets. Press 'F2' and input the number of matches. You are then asked to enter the following ( refer to figure 9). Firstly input the line number - the home team name will appear. Next show if the bet is a draw, home or away by typing 'd', 'h' or 'a' and pressing 'Enter'. Lastly enter the odds themselves. The largest number you are able to input is 21, so odds such as 21/10, as are occassionally found on some fixed odds coupons, may be entered. However more typical of odds on offer, are those in figure 9. Note the accumulated odds for all input values are shown. You are asked if permutations are required. If so, input the number. In figure 10 the cost and payouts for perms of 3 from 5 are shown. The lowest paying perm of 3 from 5 gives odds of 10.45 / 1 while the best permutation pays 18.70 / 1. Fig. 10 shows that ------------- INPUT ODDS ------------ if all five games | Accumulator on a one unit bet | were correctly | Line Home Team Result Odds Accumtr | predicted then | 6 Newcastle Away 6/5 2.20/1 | odds of 143 / 1 | 11 Bournemth Away 11/8 5.22/1 | would be paid. | 23 Bristol C. Away 1/1 10.45/1 | Costs and returns | 38 Rochdale Away 13/8 27.43/1 | for a number of | 58 Arbroath Away 2/1 82.29/1 | stakes are given. ------------------------------------- For example a 10p Figure 9. stake would cost #1.00 for 10 bets. ------------- INPUT ODDS ------------ If 3 matches were | Permutations of 3 from 5 lines | correct this would | Total number of bets - 10 | pay a minimum of | Minimum Odds - 10.45 / 1 | #1.04. All five | Maximum Odds - 18.70 / 1 | correct pays #14.31 | Total Odds, all perms - 143 / 1 | Note that if there | Stake Cost-bets Pays-min Pays-tot | are more than 150 | 0.10 1.00 1.04 14.31 | permutations then | 0.15 1.50 1.57 21.46 | the 'Total Odds' | 0.30 3.00 3.13 42.93 | and the 'Pays- ------------------------------------- Total' values given Figure 10. are minimum estimates only. KEY 'F3' Provides for reference purposes TABLES OF DOUBLES, TREBLES AND ACCUMULATORS for up to fifteen predictions. USER Select 'USER' from the PREDICTION OPTIONS MENU to display a histogram which shows 'settings' for the PREDICTION FORMULA The relative importance or 'weight' of various predictive features is initially set at a DEFAULT LEVEL. These features, with default levels shown in brackets, are ...... TEAM POINTS Points from League matches over a prolonged period. A measure of CONTINUOUS FORM ( 8 ). RECENT FORM Performances over last 6 home or away games, including total goals scored and lost ( 5 ). LAST GAME The significance of the result of the last game and goals scored for and against ( 1 ). HOME TEAM The advantages to the team playing a match on its home ground over the away team ( 4 ). TEAM ZONE Importance of local derbies or the distance the away team must travel for a match ( 2 ). DIVISION Superiority of teams in the higher divisions POINTS or of major over minor league teams ( 9 ). Note that RECENT FORM applies only to the last 6 games of the opposing teams. A comparison is made between the last 6 home games of the team playing at home and the last 6 away performances of the away team. It can be seen that TEAM POINTS and DIVISION POINTS are considered the most important factors in the prediction of results, while the result of the LAST GAME is reckoned to be comparatively less important and weighted accordingly. However you may not agree with these settings, or would like to experiment by changing the levels. This is done by pressing key 'F1' for USER SET LEVELS. You are then prompted to consider each feature in turn and make changes as required. User levels may be reset from 1 to 10 inclusive. Input the number then press 'Enter'. Press 'Enter' without inputing a number and the previous setting is retained. Press 'F1' again if you want to return to default settings or make further changes. By making such changes to the prediction formula you can expect variation in the number of draws, homes and aways predicted. For example if the HOME TEAM advantage is set at a high level then the number of predicted home wins will increase. It is suggested that you make various changes and observe the effect upon the numbers of draws, homes & aways forecast and the success of your predictions. NEXT, BACK, SKIP OR COPY These menu options provide a means of viewing the different prediction displays as numbered in the 'Message Window'. Use 'NEXT' to advance through the displays and 'BACK' to return, one 'page' at a time. Where there may be a large number of screen displays, for example with the prediction FORM GUIDE, use 'SKIP' to advance several display pages. To return to original PREDICTION OPTIONS MENU press 'ESC'. All prediction displays may be PRINTED. Select 'COPY' from the PREDICTION OPTIONS MENU, then check that the printer is switched on and loaded with paper; if so then press key 'y'. Sixty lines of predictions, the maximum available, will fit within a single A4 size sheet. Where necessary select 'NEXT' and then print consecutive pages. SAVING PREDICTIONS The COMPLETE block of prediction lines may be saved by keying 'Alt/S'. The matches and their predictions are saved under the current date and 'user' or 'default' setting. Note that ALL of the matches you have input for prediction are saved - the complete fixture list of up to 60 games. Saving matches and predictions serves three purposes ..... 1. Once predictions are saved it is possible to re-examine forecasts at any time in the future without the need to re-enter teams. Furthermore if you are interrupted during the input of matches, they can be saved and the remainder entered some time later. However it is worth noting that if further match results are input in the mean time, which update the database, then the forecasts for the re-entered block of matches may differ from those originally made. 2. Matches input and saved as predictions can be used at a later date to facilitate the entry of match results. This much reduces time spent on updating the data file. 3. When results have been input against the appropriate match predictions then the data can be used to analyse the success of forecasts under various 'user' settings. FOOTBALL FORECAST RESULTS UPDATE ________________________________ Pressing 'S' from the RESULTS MENU will display those teams comprising the English Premier Division, as figure 11 shows. A message appears giving the date upon which the LAST MATCH RESULT was saved to the RECORDS file. You may now input match results which update the programs database. You are prompted to enter the home then away team names. Input teams by moving the highlighting to the desired team name then press 'Enter'. Data entry may also be achieved by making use of the mouse. If you should attempt to input the same team home and away a message will appear to that effect. Input the match score as prompted. Move the highlighting to the required position and press 'Enter'. Scores also input by pressing the appropriate numbered key. Figure 11 - Input of Match Results. -------- ENGLAND - PREM ----------------------- INPUT ----- | | | | | Arsenal Man. City Tottenhm | 0 | MATCH RESULTS | | | | | | A. Villa Man Utd Wimbledn | 1 |----------------| | | | Result - | | Blackburn Middlsbro | 2 | | | | | home ? | | Chelsea Norwich | 3 | | | | | away ? | | Coventry Nott. For. | 4 | | | | | score : ? - ? | | Crystal P Oldham | 5 | | | | |----------------| | Everton Q.P.R. | 6 | Message - | | | | | | Ipswich Sheff Utd | 7 | Rochdale....1 | | | | | | Leeds Sheff Wed ( SCOT.2 ) | 8 | Burnley.....3 | | | | | | Liverpool South'ton ( ENGL.1 ) | 9 | 6th May, 1992 | | | | | --Alt/S-save Q-quit Ins-matches Esc-cancel R-review L-last- F1-EngP F2-Eng1 F3-Eng2 F4-Eng3 F5-ScoP F6-Sco1 F7-Sco2 F9-Others F10-Help Numbers greater than nine cannot be entered. Incorrect entries of teams or scores are cancelled with the 'ESC', key, while the league / division displays are changed as described above under the heading of 'Prediction Input'. You can input any results for which a database record exist, that is both Cup or League games, although it may be found sufficient to update with league matches only. It is the input of the next home team name which causes a proceeding result to be saved to computer memory - but ALL results must still be saved to disk as described below. Use the 'Esc' key to delete the currently displayed team names and scores if an error is made. However it is important to note that it is only the currently displayed result which may be cancelled. There is not a facility to amend previous results input, so take care with the update. You may QUIT input at any time by pressing key 'Q', but all results entered up to that time, unless previously saved, are then lost. When you want to SAVE the results you have input, and update the RECORDS file, press 'Alt/S'. Clearly if you are entering a large number of match results it is a good idea to save your input from time to time. No more than 150 results should be input before 'SAVING'. INSERTING MATCHES Any match PREDICTIONS which you may have saved ( see above ) can be used to facilitate the entry of match results. Press key 'Ins' and blocks of previously saved predictions may be displayed using the 'PgUp' and 'PgDn' keys. Press 'Enter' to select a block of matches, then use the 'arrow' and 'Enter' keys to input teams and scores in the usual way. The 'Esc' key deletes only the currently displayed match. Return to the league displays by pressing the 'Ins' key. FOOTBALL FORECAST STATISTICS ____________________________ Make your selection form the STATS OPTIONS MENU. The menu options available are TOTAL, BLOCK, MATCH and FACTS. BLOCK. Select this from 'STATS OPTIONS MENU' and individual blocks of up to 60 saved matches, with their results, may selected for statistical analysis ( see figures 12 & 13 ). The first column of each of the two displays shows the actual number of draws, homes and aways which occurred and the total number of matches for which results have been input. In figure 12 it can be seen how successful the prediction of these results have been - the correctly made forecasts being marked with an asterisk. The percentage of correct predictions for draws, homes and aways are listed along the bottom row. Figure 12 duplicates some of the data in figure 13 but in addition provides, for comparative purposes, the percentage of correct predictions which might be expected by 'chance'. This means the second of the two statistics displays shows the percentage of draws, homes or aways which, given the number of predictions of each which were made, might be expected by chance alone to be correct forecasts. If there are sufficient results a chi-square test is carried out. The chi-square value with the appropriate degree of freedom and the level of significance is given. Figure 12. Statistics Display Page 1. Date : 6 - 4 - 91 Lines : 58 'BEST' SetUp : user ( 8 5 1 4 2 9 ) ------------------------------------------------------- | Match | Predicted | Predicted | Predicted | | Results | Draws | Aways | Homes | |-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------| | DRAWS 6 | 3 * | 2 | 1 | |-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------| | HOMES 8 | 1 | 6 * | 1 | |-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------| | AWAYS 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 * | |-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------| | Total 20 | 4 | 8 | 6 | |-------------------------------------------------------| | Correct (%) | Correct (%) | Correct (%) | | Draws = 50.00 | Homes = 75.00 | Aways = 66.67 | ------------------------------------------------------- Figure 13. Statistics Display Page 2. ------------------------------------------------------- | Match | Correctly | Correct | Chance | | Results | Predicted | (%) | (%) | |-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------| | DRAWS 6 | 3 | 50.00 | 20.00 | |-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------| | HOMES 8 | 6 | 75.00 | 50.00 | |-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------| | AWAYS 6 | 4 | 66.67 | 30.00 | |-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------| | Total 20 | 13 | 65.00 | 35.00 | |-------------------------------------------------------| | chi-square | degrees | significance | | value = 9.65 | freedom = 4 | p< 0.0500 | ------------------------------------------------------- If there are forty or more matches the opportunity is given to select the twenty 'Best' rated predictions for analysis. A chi-square test is provided if there are enough results. Note that a set of analysed results may on occassion prove statistically significant for reasons which are not immediately obvious. For example if a large proportion of predicted aways actually resulted in drawn games. As the number of matches analysed is of course less than that available when the 'TOTAL' option is selected the significance levels tend to be lower due to the reduced sample size. Press 'Esc' to return to the 'STATS MENU'. TOTAL. Select this option and a statistical analysis of all saved predictions ( for which results have been input ) is provided. This may be in excess of 450 predictions. As is the case with the 'BLOCK' analysis, you are first asked if an analysis of the 'Best' of the predictions is required. In this case that means a complete analysis of the twenty 'Top Rated' forecasts from EACH of the blocks of up to 60 predictions. Press 'y' if such an analysis is required. In many respects an analysis of this kind provides the best indicator of the predictive capabilities of the program - forecasts for which less than firm prediction can be made, and which are unlikely to have been selected for your pools or fixed odds forecasts, are then excluded from the statistical analysis. MATCH. There may be occassions when you wish to input results for statistical analysis but do not want to update the database with actual match scores. Select 'MATCH' to input d-draws, h-homes and a-aways into individual blocks. Use the arrow keys to select matches and the 'space bar' to cancel an entry. The match predictions are in brackets. Results which you have input but have not yet saved are marked with an asterisk. Press 'Alt/S' to SAVE your input. FACTS. A 'FACTS AND FIGURES' MENU provides a number of displays showing program, prediction and team statistics. Of particular interest may be display 'A' showing numerous facts, including the date of the last input to divisions. Page Up and Down through many of these displays and press 'ESC' to return to the menu options. Several of these statistical displays may be printed by pressing key 'C'. 'Facts' are regularly updated for the 'registered' version. FOOTBALL FORECAST DATA FILE ___________________________ The Football Forecast 'RECORDS' file contains data on match results upon which predictions are based. Clearly it is important that your record of results is as up-to-date as possible to achieve the best forecasting performance. At the start of the 'Results Update', figure 11, a message will appear giving the date upon which a football match result was last saved to the program's RECORDS FILE. If your data file is not up-to-date, which may inevitably be the case when you first acquire this shareware, it could be a few weeks before input of results creates a database which gives a usable representation of comparative team strengths. When you register your ownership of Football Forecast you will be provided with an up-to-date copy of the software which includes the very latest results. SHAREWARE REGISTRATION _______________________ You are free to copy the software and share it with others who may test the program. However if you intend to continue to use 'Football Forecast' do please consider sending the registration fee of #14.85. Please send payment in the form of a postal order or cheque payable to W. A. Hunter at the address below. Registered users will receive the entire Football Forecast handbook, up-to-date data and program files, 'Perm & Plan', 'Aussie' Forecast program version 1.2. Registered users are also entitled to Telephone Support. This cost also includes postage, packing and VAT charges. The Registration Order Form and address label may be printed when 'O-order' is selected from the MAIN MENU of the program. A copy of the registration order form is also provided below ! FOOTBALL FORECAST REGISTRATION - VERSION 3.7 COPYRIGHT(C) 1989..1992 ____________________________________________________________________ A postal order or cheque, payable to W. A. Hunter, to the value of #14.85 should be enclosed. The following will then be forwarded. Football Forecast Handbook Up-to-date Match Results Data Files Latest version of Football Forecast Program The 'Perm and Plan' Software 'Aussie' Forecast version 1.2 Registered owners are also entitled to Telephone Support. The cost includes packing, postage and VAT charges. Please insert relevant details and send this registration form to the address below. Your queries or comments will be most welcome. Diskette size required : 3.5" or 5.25" ( please indicate ! ) Computer & Display type : Source of Shareware disk : Name & Delivery Address : Signed ........................ Date ................ W.A.HUNTER, 28 MACBETH ROAD, DUNFERMLINE, FIFE, SCOTLAND. KY11 4EG. ____________________________________________________________________