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- Newsgroups: sci.econ
- Path: sparky!uunet!pmafire!mica.inel.gov!whg
- From: whg@inel.gov (Bill Gray)
- Subject: Re: "Death of America"
- Message-ID: <1993Jan8.010630.25706@inel.gov>
- Sender: news@inel.gov
- Organization: Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Idaho Falls, Idaho
- References: <1993Jan6.194108.26770@oracle.us.oracle.com> <thompson.726422768@daphne.socsci.umn.edu>
- Date: Fri, 8 Jan 93 01:06:30 GMT
- Lines: 32
-
- In article <thompson.726422768@daphne.socsci.umn.edu>, thompson@atlas.socsci.umn.edu (T. Scott Thompson) writes:
- |> kwee@oracle.uucp (Karl Wee) writes:
- |>
- |> >I didn't mean to say your analysis is invalid. I meant to say that discussing
- |> >narrow escape scenarios when everything is about to collapse and when there's
- |> >still time to save ourselves in a more certain fashion is a little irrelevant.
- |>
- |> What is the "scientific" basis for the hypothesis that "everything is
- |> about to collapse"? Is there a "scientifically" rigorous basis for
- |> your concern, or is this merely a linear extrapolation of current
- |> trends?
- |> ...
-
- I have it on very good authority (Yogi Berra, no less) that "prediction is
- hard, especially when it's about the future." Computer scientists have less
- excuse than Economists. How often do programming projects, which are by
- definition of finite compass, and ususally of bounded complexity utterly
- fail to work out as predicted? We computer nerds should be humble in the
- face of the predictive power of Economics.
-
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