In article <1992Dec21.214809.18703@ramon.bgu.ac.il>, avir@chen.bgu.ac.il (Avi Roy Shapira) writes:
|> jschuler@dcs.simpact.com writes:
|> :
|> : Your in 4 Spades and
|> : your trump suit is:
|> :
|> : K Declarer has 2 hearts, dummy 3+. The defense
|> : J start with a diamond to Easts Ace, the King of Hearts,
|> : 7 a Heart to Wests Ace, Heart ruffed by East with the
|> : 6 Eight and overruffed with your Ace. A trump to dummy
|> : draws the Nine from West and you play the ???????
|> : A
|> : 5
|> : 4
|> : 3
|> : 2
|> :
|> :
|> : This problem was given to me by Jon Wright.
|>
|> I like this problem! Declarer can make the contract only if East
|> started with Q8 or T8. With T8 East would have ruffed with the T to
|> force out the Ace, in case declarer has the 9.
|>
|> You should therefore play the K!
|>
|> Avi
No one has p[ointed out what I see as the most crucial problem on this hand. WHY DID WEST PLAY THE SPADE 9 on the lead?
Now 99% of the time, I agree with Avi. You just assume West made a thoughtless play from ST9 and go up with the SKing. But what if BOTH EW are experts.
Now, I think the finesse is correct. Follow the reasoning through and see if you agree.
With T9 an expert East would be much more inclined to play the T rather than the 9. With Q8 West would of course ruff with the S8 but this is inconsistent with an expert Easts play of the S9.
What would an expert West do with T8? He would reason as follows. If S is missing the SA his play is immaterial. If S has SAQ again his play is immaterial. The only situation is when S has the SA and no SQ. Now if W ruffs with the T this forces the Ace, and South will almost definitely finesse the SJ as this win with Qx and Qxx of spades with East. Therefore, the T is not likely to help much. Now consider what happens if E ruffs with the S8. If S has the S9 its all over for the good guys, but then
as we saw the T was not going to win by much anyway, so the loss is not very great.
But what if S does not have the 9, it will draw the Ace, and now South will definitely go down when he reasons as above and tries to drop the SQ with East.
So in summary, if I was playing against an average to good pair I think the SK is right. But if your opponents were Mackwell or Stansby/Martel then I think the SJ will be the correct.
Opinions?
Bharat
--
R. Bharat Rao E-mail: bharat@cs.uiuc.edu
AI Group, Beckman Institute for Advanced Science and Technology
405 N. Mathews, Urbana, IL 61801 (217)-333-5978 (O), 337-6498(H)
Electrical & Computer Engineering, University of Illinois, Urbana