NetNews Usenet Archive 1992 #31/NN_1992_31.iso/spool/comp/unix/question/15118

Internet Message Format | 1993-01-02 | 8.3 KB

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From: [e-mail] (Harley Hahn)
Newsgroups: comp.unix.questions
Subject: WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO UNIX?
Message-ID: <[e-mail]>
Date: 2 Jan 93 21:33:34 GMT
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You may have seen the series of postings in which various people
answered a question I posed some time ago: Is Unix Dead?  In this
posting, I am asking a new question: Now that AT&T has sold Unix
to Novell (the maker of Netware, a network operating system):

----- WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO UNIX? -----

BACKGROUND
==========
The first question, Is Unix Dead?, was based on the issue of Byte
magazine which asked same question on the cover.  To summarize,
Byte published an article speculating on the success and benefits
of Window NT, the new, unreleased operating system from
Microsoft.  To be provocative, they asked "IS UNIX DEAD?" on the
cover of that issue, the idea being would Windows NT kill off
Unix?

The actual article concluded that, indeed, Unix wasn't dead.
Virtually all of the postings that I received in answer to my
question had the same answer.  However, now we have a real threat
-- or possibly an opportunity -- from a new front.

UNIX AND NOVELL
===============
As you may know, AT&T has announced their intention of selling
Unix System Laboratories (USL) to Novell.  More precisely, Novell
and AT&T have signed a letter of intent that states that Novell
will trade over 11 million new shares of Novell stock for all the
current shares held in USL.  (AT&T holds a 77% interest right now
in USL.  The other shareholders -- 11 other companies, including
Sun -- will have to agree to the deal.)

The plan is that, over the first quarter of 1993, AT&T and Novell
will consummate the deal.  When it is all over and everyone
counts their chips, AT&T will have about $100 million.

In other words, AT&T is selling Unix System V (and Tuxedo, and
all of USL) to Novell for $100 million.

WHAT THE COMPUTER COMMUNITY THINKS OF ALL THIS
===============================================
Most of the computer community is not Unix.  Most of the computer
community is based on PC's or Macs.  They can be divided into two
main parts: Microsoft and everybody else.  Many, many people --
especially in the commercial part of this community -- do not
like Microsoft.  They are looking with trepidation towards
Windows NT, not because it may kill Unix, but because they are
afraid of even more Microsoft dominance of the market.  They hate
Microsoft the way they used to hate IBM.

(Interesting sidenote: In the last five months, the total loss of
value of IBM stock reached about 28 *billion* dollars, or about
four times the net worth of Bill Gates.)

Much of the commercial PC/Mac world is looking forward to the
Novell/Unix alliance because they think that the combination of
Novell's network operating system + Unix provides the best
available challenge to continued Microsoft challenge.  They don't
much care if Unix dies, they care if Windows NT dies.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?
==================
Within the next few days, I will be writing an analysis of the
Novell/AT&T deal for "Unigram", a worldwide Unix newsletter.  (If
you have never seen Unigram, it is published weekly and covers
the business aspects of Unix. Unigram is read widely and reaches
all the executives and movers and shakers in the Unix industry.)

So far, Unigram has commented only on the business aspects of the
deal.  The consensus is that AT&T selling Unix is good for the
industry because Novell+Unix is the only strong operating system
competitor for Microsoft.  No attention has been given as to what
the technically-inclined Unix people (that is, all of us) might
think of the deal.  In fact, when I raised the question to a
person who has her finger on the pulse of the commercial world of
Unix I was told that "The techies don't matter".  In other words,
Unix is an important commodity, but it's future depends on that
is good for the money people.

I agreed to write a short analysis detailing the concerns and
opinions of the technical Unix community.  For this reason, I am
solicting your opinion. Here are some considerations:

PROS
====
-- Novell may make a better steward of Unix than AT&T.  In recent
   years, AT&T has grown to be more interested in hardware, phone
   systems and telecommunications than in Unix.  Novell, on the
   other hand, is an operating system company and only an
   operating system company.  They own, not only the various
   versions of Netware, but DR DOS, a competitor to DOS that they
   acquired when they bought Digital Research.
-- Novell will be competing with Microsoft's Windows family,
   actively and competently.
-- The boss of Novell, Ray Noorda, is widely considered to be a
   Good Guy.
-- Much of what we call "Unix" is not dependent on System V and
   the efforts of USL and, even if they screw it up, the Unix
   community may flourish on its own.

CONS
====
-- Novell is a different company that cares more about their own
   financial health than the future of Unix.  They are in the
   network operating system business and do not understand the
   Unix culture.
-- If push comes to shove, Novell will use Unix for whatever they
   need to help their own bottom line and they have no long-term
   obligation to Unix itself.  (Realistically, a publicly-held
   company like Novell has a primary responsibility to its own
   shareholders and to its own profitability, not to an abstract
   idea like Unix.  This idea has a lot to do with why AT&T is
   selling Unix.)
-- In conversations with People Who Matter, the idea of Ray
   Noorda being a Good Guy is often offered as being good for
   Unix.  But think about this: When this deal goes through, one
   person -- Noorda -- will control the future of Unix (at least
   System V Unix).  What happens if this person resigns or dies?
   We don't know who his successor will be or what this person's
   feelings will be about Unix.
-- The Novell/AT&T public relations people are scraping the
   bottom of several barrels to show simultaneously why (1)
   nothing will change, and (2) everything will be better.  In
   particular, they say that Novell has promised to keep their
   hands off USL.  Business, we are assured, will continue as
   usual.  USL will keep the same people and will stay in New
   Jersey.

SOME OF MY THOUGHTS
===================
All of this reminds me of Ted Turner's actions after buying MGM.
He made a rousing speech to the MGM employees in which he
promised that he would restore MGM to its former glory and they
would, once again, start making Great Movies.  After this speech,
he proceeded to take the library of old films for himself and
sell off the rest of the company to the highest bidders.

More to the point, Novell bought Digital Research promising more
or less the same thing about DR DOS.  The president of General
Research was given an important post and was talked about as
being the heir to the Noorda throne.  It wasn't long before the
heir had left Novell (saying that, unlike Burger King, they
wouldn't let him do it his way) and DR DOS was "integrated" into
the Netware environment so Novell could sell more network
operating systems.  The idea of DR DOS using the muscle of Novell
to fight Microsoft DOS has, along with the old MGM movies, pretty
much gone with the wind.

The official Novell press release quotes Ray Noorda as saying:
"This acquisition is being done at the urging of customers who
have asked us to support the UNIX system directly and
integrate it more fully within the Netware environment."

The press release then makes the conflicting promise that "USL's
commitment to fair and neutral access to UNIX technology will not
change."

WHAT DO YOU THINK?
==================
This posting is long because I wanted to lay out the background
and the pros and cons of this issue.  However, I am interested in
hearing your opinion before I write my analysis (which I will
post to this newsgroup).  If you are interested, can you please
email me a *short* opinion on the effect that you think the
AT&T/Novell deal will bring to the technical Unix community.
Because of the publishing deadline, I need your opinion right
away.  (My deadline is Jan 5).

Thanks,

Harley Hahn

[e-mail]