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  1. Path: sparky!uunet!spool.mu.edu!news.nd.edu!bsu-cs!bsu-ucs.uucp!00rdharringt
  2. From: 00rdharringt@leo.bsuvc.bsu.edu (Rob Harrington)
  3. Newsgroups: talk.politics.misc
  4. Subject: The "Real" Reason the Republican Lost...
  5. Message-ID: <1992Nov19.190237.12124@bsu-ucs>
  6. Date: 20 Nov 92 00:02:37 GMT
  7. Organization: Ball State University
  8. Lines: 92
  9.  
  10. Too many of 'them'; not enough of 'us'
  11.  
  12. (by Stuart Hoffman of Merion Station, Pa., a self described "world class
  13. statistician," offers his explanation of the presidential election:)
  14.  
  15.     Today, political types are popping the hood, trying to figure out
  16. why people voted the way they did.  Ignore them!  It's really simple.  In
  17. his enthusiasm to run a divisive campaign, President Bush went too far.  My
  18. extensive statistical analysis conclusively demonstrates that he attacked
  19. so many of "them" that there were too few of "us" left to vote for him.
  20. Table 1 enumerates the voters that the GOP pushed into the "them" column
  21. during the campaign:
  22.  
  23. Table 1
  24. People the Republicans Bashed
  25.  
  26. Them (and basis of estimate)                Potential Voters
  27. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  28. Residents of Arkansas (US Census)                   2,351,000
  29. Members of Congress (10th grade history teacher)                 535
  30. Lawyers (American Bar Association members)                 741,000
  31. Gays and lesbians (Kinsey Report)                  18,415,700
  32. The press (census)                         253,000
  33. Draft Dodgers ("Woodstock" crowd + Dan Quayle)             400,001
  34. Bozos (Clowns of America Int'l members)                   5,400
  35. Moscow Visitors, 1969 (Clinton Campaign)              50,000
  36. Single Parents (census)                          13,774,000
  37. Lobbyists (Am. League of Lobbyists)                     450
  38. Non-Christians (census)                         113,164,000
  39. People with AIDS (Geo. Washington University)              77,994
  40. Ozone persons (Sierra Club members)                 650,000
  41. Elvis fans (US Postal Service)                       1,000,000
  42. Nutty Pollsters (Market Research Assn.)                   2,300
  43. Liberals (ACLU card-carriers)                     375,000
  44. Murphy Brown viewers (A.C. Nielsen)                  44,000,000
  45. Cultural Elite (Motion Picture Academy)                   5,210
  46. Pot Smokers (members of NORML)                      80,000
  47. Public school employees (census)                   2,773,000
  48. Chicken farmers (American Poultry Assn)                   3,000
  49. Sunday TV talking heads (includes NFL Today)                 150
  50. Jimmy Carter voters (America Votes)                  40,831,000
  51. Bush's economic advisers (Resumes R Us)                       3
  52. Working spouses (census)                      58,556,000
  53. Mario Cuomo & Hillary Clinton (personal count)                   2
  54. People without 'G-O-D' in their platform (Dem. Conv.)           4,928
  55. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  56. Total                                 297,513,673
  57.  
  58.     Note:  Total exceeds the population of US adults due to double-
  59. counting (e.g.  members of Congress who smoke pot and people who sent in
  60. multiple Elvis postcards).
  61.  
  62.     In fairness, Bush did restrain himself from attacking everyone.  Table
  63. 2 lists the "us" groups the GOP did not attack, assuring him of an enthusiastic
  64. core:
  65.  
  66. Table 2
  67. People the Republicans never bashed
  68.  
  69. Us (and basis of estimate)                Potential Voters
  70. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  71. People who like guns (NRA membership)                   2,524,000
  72. Rich people (census, over $50,000 income)              12,074,000
  73. Less the Perots (Forbes 500)                          -8
  74. Osprey builders (Boeing Corp.)                       5,000
  75. James Baker (various federal agencies)                      1
  76. Jim Bakker (US Bureau of Prisons)                       1
  77. Sister Soujah/ Willie Horton (Believe It or Not)               2
  78. Up with People (common knowledge)                     220
  79. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  80. Total                                  14,603,216
  81.  
  82.     Note:  Total may be inaccurate when Up With People is armed.
  83.  
  84.     The conclusion is apparent:  The Republican Party could have won if
  85. only it had focused its attack on fewer enemies.  GOP leaders can still
  86. achieve their implied goal of enthic cleansing provided they know where to stop.
  87.     As they demonstrated so decisively in 1988, negative campaigning does
  88. indeed work.  But unless they want to want to continue giving away the White
  89. House to candidates advocating inclusion, they must learn to bash fewer 
  90. minorities.
  91.  
  92. -- 
  93. /---------------------------------------v-------------------------------------\
  94. |  Rob Harrington                       |              Ball State University  |
  95. |  Department of History                |               Muncie, Indiana, USA  |
  96. |  Vax--00RDHARRINGT@leo.bsuvc.bsu.edu  |       Unix--herring@bsu-cs.bsu.edu  |
  97. >---------------------------------------^-------------------------------------<
  98. |                                Clinton/Gore '92                             |
  99. |                  Ball State University - University Democrats               |
  100. |                Not a spokesperson - REPEAT - Not a spokesperson             |
  101. \-----------------------------------------------------------------------------/
  102.