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- Newsgroups: comp.os.os2.misc
- Path: sparky!uunet!caen!m2xenix!agora!tedm
- From: tedm@agora.rain.com (Ted Mittelstaedt)
- Subject: RE: The future of OS/2
- Message-ID: <1992Jul28.075155.5417@agora.uucp>
- Sender: tedm@agora.uucp (Ted Mittelstaedt)
- Organization: Open Communications Forum
- Distribution: na
- Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1992 07:51:55 GMT
- Lines: 42
-
- I think that the idea that Windows support is only going to last a year or so
- based on the non-renewal of the "code-sharing" contract between Microsoft and
- IBM is extremely simplistic at best, and destructive at worst.
- First of all, companies make and re-negotiate contracts all of the time. We
- have all witnessed Microsoft's flip-flopping between OS/2 & NT, and even IBM is
- guilty of the same. Just because IBM and Microsoft have parted ways this month
- does not mean that this will always be the same in the future. Trying to pre-
- dict whether or not Windows support is in OS/2 in the future is a little like
- saying 3 years ago that OS/2 is going to be Microsoft's premiere OS today.
- The real reason that that contact was not renewed is that both parties saw no
- advantage to renewing it. Microsoft, on one hand, is convinced that OS/2 will
- fade away. IBM, on the other, wants to take a shot at the PC based Operating
- System market, without Microsoft looking over their shoulder. Since the
- vast majority of PC's today still run DOS as their OS, and also run DOS apps,
- there really is no clear winner in the Windows vs OS/2 debate yet.
- However, 5 years or so down the line, when the 386'es and their ilk are
- ruling the PC market, and one or the other has turned out to be the clear
- winner, then there will be advantages to code sharing. By then, there will be
- a significant base of both OS/2 and Windows APPLICATIONS owners. For IBM to
- ignore the Windows app owners, or Microsoft to ignore the OS/2 app owners,
- is a lot like cutting off one's nose to spite their face. By then, the
- patriotic Rah-Rah my-os-is-better-than-your-os bullshit will have cooled, and
- both companies will only really be interested in making a buck, and I will
- predict will be code sharing.
- There is a lot of marketing bullshit coming out of IBM these days that seems
- to try to make OS/2 the "gateway" drug to an IBM world of computing. I think
- that the idea has finally penetrated the "Big Iron" marketing brains in IBM
- that wow OS/2 is actually a success in the PC market, so now they are going to
- try to load their deadweight ideas (like a proprietary "Pink" OS, whatever that
- is) onto it so it will carry them. Well, if IBM wants to make definitely sure
- that OS/2 dies, they will follow this path. I think, however, that there are
- enough people with intelligence in IBM nowadays that when they see OS/2 getting
- bogged down by Pink, S/36, or whatever, that they will yank OS/2 away from
- the "big iron" marketing types. If this occurs, you can bet that they will
- be wanting OS/2 to run the competition's programs, and will once again be
- willing to lay out some cash to do so. (assuming that NT is actually ever
- produced, and doesen't implode into a black hole of it's own deadweight.)
-
-
- Ted Mittelstaedt
- tedm@agora.rain.com
-
-