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1992-09-22
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3KB
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Here is another little math tool. This one solves the
mathematical problem of the probability of a duplication in a
universe.
It can be used to solve the "Birthday Problem"; that is,
in a group of K people what is the probability there will be
at least two people with the same birthday. As uses here
birthday means the same month and day; the year is ignored.
Ignoring leap year, which has a negligible effect on the odds
for any practical case, letting N = 365 will give the
probability of at least one duplication in a group of any
size greater than 1 and less than or equal to N.
It is interesting to note that for a group of 23 people
the probability is about 0.5 . That is there is about an
even change there will be at least one duplication. For a
group of 40 people the probability is about 0.97 which is
almost a certainty. You can probably win a few beers using
this knowledge. It is also interesting that like CHI Square
the distribution need not be Gaussian. This makes the results
more general.
I hope this program proves useful. It is entered as
FREEWARE for non-commercial use, donations however will be
gratefully accepted. It may be used and distributed subject
to the following considerations:
There is no warranties as to merchantability of fitness
for any use. The user agrees by accepting the program to hold
the undersigned harmless for any damages whatsoever including
but not limited to consequential damages that may arise from
the use of, attempted use of, or inability to use this
program. It is the sole responsibility of the user to
determine the value, if any, of the program. If distributed,
only the zip file may be distributed not the individual
components. The program may not be Reverse Engineered, dis-
assembled, or modified in any way without the expressed prior
permission of the undersigned nor may it be made a part of
any package for which a charge is made. If used in a
commercial environment, it must be licensed by the
undersigned. Fee is $5.00 for an unlimited single computer
license.
Benson Ackerman
404 Park Avenue
Leonia NJ, 07605