home
***
CD-ROM
|
disk
|
FTP
|
other
***
search
/
GCW Games & More & Wacky Windows Companion
/
gcw.iso
/
win
/
util
/
mrktment
/
readme
< prev
Wrap
Text File
|
1993-11-26
|
26KB
|
511 lines
MARKET MENTOR 1.5 for Windows(TM)
-------------------------------------
Copyright (c) by Orbis Terrarum Software, 1993
All rights reserved.
Introduction:
Orbis Terrarum Software was founded by a software engineer and
successful trader to develop tools to assist others in trading
the futures markets. This product is an expert system that employs the
standard statistical techniques of market analysis and neural networks
in an automated form that substancially reduces the time it takes
to "get the feel" of the market on a day-to-day basis. Work is underway to
link a much more advanced version of this system with an on-line financial
information service to continually monitor the markets.
How this differs from Market Mentor 1.1 for DOS:
Many pieces of software that were created for DOS and that later
appeared as Windows(TM) applications have turned out to be the same old DOS
program re-compiled to run under Windows(TM). This is not the case here.
Market Mentor 1.5 is a new departure for Orbis Terrarum Software. It is
intended to be the starting place for much more advanced neural net software
currently under development. Be sure to focus on the following sections
of this README to catch the major differences between the DOS and Windows(TM)
versions of MARKET MENTOR:
a) Installation;
b) System: Discussion of custom parameters, and
c) Data: Discussion of the Add Daily Data feature.
What this is, and is not:
The futures markets are risky, nothing will ever remove risk from
these markets. The only thing that can be done is risk control. That is
the emphasis of this software. Most software of this type is concerned
with predicting market movements. To this end, some purveyors of such
software claim to use neural networks, fuzzy logic, chaos theory and all
manner of other such stylish buzz words to predict the future. In this
pursuit these vendors reduce themselves, no matter their academic
qualifications, to side-show fortune tellers -- void of all scientific
integrity. The truth is: the future cannot be predicted. As far as prediction
is concerned, all anyone can do is make the assumption that what has happened
in the past will be representative of what will happen in the future. Neural
networks, fuzzy logic or chaos theory can be of assistance in curve-fitting
and in analyzing the past but they cannot predict the future any more
effectively than the time-honored techniques of moving averages, standard
deviations and stochastics. Neural networks, et cetera, are powerful tools
when used in their proper area of application. The prediction of the future,
however, is not within their capabilities. MARKET MENTOR 1.5 uses fully
trained neural networks to process data in accord with relationships between
market indicators that we have observed. However, trading decisions must be
based on a variety of factors that MARKET MENTOR 1.5, or any other piece of
software, cannot take into account. MARKET MENTOR 1.5 should be regarded
as just another tool in your collection to help you make informed decisions.
As has been said, the aim here is risk control. This is accomplished
by inter-market analysis. In the futures markets there are types of
commodities that always move together, either in the same or opposite
directions. There are other commodities that move together for limited
periods and then diverge. We suggest it makes no sense to be trading more
than one of a set of commodities that move together. This software helps
you look for trading opportunities in commodities that move independently,
thus hedging risk by diversification. Most other software of this type cannot
perform this function because it examines only one commodity. Even if other
commodities are examined, they are usually examined with the idea that
movements in one are an early indicator of movements in another. This
confuses correlation with cause-and-effect -- more fortune telling.
This software encourages four techniques of futures trading success:
a) trade with the trends;
b) let the profits run;
c) be consistent and unemotional, and
d) limit risk with diversity.
System Requirements
Theoretically, MARKET MENTOR 1.5 should be able to run on any IBM PC
or compatible computer running Windows 3.1 or better. It is recommended that:
a) you run MARKET MENTOR 1.5 from a hard disk, MARKET
MENTOR 1.5 needs approx. 2 Meg of disk space for
all its related programming and data;
b) you have VGA colour graphics to get the
most from the visual aids;
c) you use a 386 or better to reduce the time taken
for the extensive calculations involved;
d) you have a mouse to ensure access to all MARKET MENTOR 1.5
features, and
e) you have at least 4 Mbytes RAM. While MARKET MENTOR 1.5
easily runs in 640K of memory. This
can limit the amount of market data you can load
into MARKET MENTOR 1.5 at one time. Simultaneous loading
of the different markets and their data is needed
for inter-market analysis.
Data Required & Markets Supported
Fully trained neural nets are included for the following markets:
a) S&P 500;
b) British Pound;
c) Japanese Yen;
d) Swiss Franc;
e) Gold;
f) Deutsche Mark;
g) Eurodollar, and
h) US Treasury Bonds.
MARKET MENTOR 1.5 requires 60 days of historical data for each of
these markets in order to perform correctly. The data must be entered
from an ASCII file containing the following daily market data:
a) Date in the form: YYMMDD with no slashes (/)
or other separators;
b) open;
c) high;
d) low, and
e) close.
Each day's data must be on the same line in the file, in the above
order and separated by at least one space:
YYMMDD XXOpenXX XXHighXX XXLowXX XXCloseXX
eg. 920416 91.78 95.56 90.88 94.70
No blank lines may separate each day, nor may column headings or other
labels appear. The dates must be in advancing order (most recent at the
file's end). Several sample data files are included.
Data file names should recognizably reflect their contents and
always end in ".TXT". Many databases, spreadsheets and information retrieval
systems will provide or convert their data to this format easily.
Data can be entered/edited from within MARKET MENTOR 1.5 using the
Editor. This is a general file editor that can be used for a variety
of purposes.
The neural nets expect to see pricing data in the following forms:
a) Gold: US$ per ounce, US$ and cents;
b) US Treasury Bonds: points, and 32nds of points
divided by 32. (ie. 114 points & 4 32nds translates
to 114 plus 4/32, which equals 114.12);
c) S&P 500: points and cents (eg. 451.30);
d) Eurodollars: points of 100 % (eg. 93.14);
e) Japanese Yen: US$ per 10,000 yen;
f) Swiss Franc: US$ per 100 francs;
g) British Pound: US$ per 100 pounds, and
h) Deutsche Mark: US$ per 100 marks.
This is the end of the hard work, from here on MARKET MENTOR 1.5
does most of the work for you (except, of course, making the trading
decisions).
Installation
It is assumed that you will get MARKET MENTOR 1.5 on a 3.5" floppy
and that the drive that reads such sized floppies is drive A or B on your
computer. It is also assumed that you have a hard disk on which you wish
to install MARKET MENTOR 1.5. You can operate MARKET MENTOR 1.5 from a floppy
disk, but it will take a long time to load the program into your computer
each time you wish to use it. Also, little excess space is available for the
reports MARKET MENTOR 1.5 generates. The installation must be done
manually, not an overly difficult process:
a) use DOS to make the directory you wish to hold MARKET
MENTOR 1.5, on the drive you want to use, eg. md MMENT15;
b) enter this directory you just made: eg. cd MMENT15;
c) make three more directories entitled DATA, NETS and
OUTPUT (eg. md DATA, etc.);
d) copy files:
MMENT15.EXE
MMENT15.PTH
README
BWCC.LIB
MMENT15.ICO
to the current directory from the floppy;
e) copy sample data files from the floppy to the DATA directory,
(eg. copy A:\DATA\*.* C:\MMENT15\DATA);
f) copy the neural net files from the floppy to the NETS directory,
(eg. copy A:\NETS\*.* C:\MMENT15\NETS);
g) enter Windows(TM);
h) access the Main Group and select Windows Setup;
i) select Options from the Setup menu bar;
j) select Setup Applications...;
k) select the option that lets you specify an application;
l) use Browse to go through the directories to find the one in
which you installed MARKET MENTOR 1.5;
m) select MMENT15.exe for setup.
Now the MARKET MENTOR 1.5 icon should appear in the Applications
group and be ready for use as is any installed Windows(TM) application.
Activate MARKET MENTOR 1.5 and use the various "set paths" options on the
System menu to show MARKET MENTOR 1.5 where all the related files are.
Be sure to select the "Save paths" option when you are finished.
Installation should now be complete.
How to Use MARKET MENTOR 1.5
Let's have a look at MARKET MENTOR 1.5 using the sample data. Execute
MARKET MENTOR 1.5 if you have not done so already. You should be seeing a
standard desktop with a menu bar across the top, containing the various
choices.
System
The System menu contains routines to setup the data paths and
further configure MARKET MENTOR 1.5. The About... option gives a general
introduction and tells you how to register as a user. The Parameter
option allows you to customize the rules-of-thumb MARKET MENTOR 1.5 uses
in its Basic Report. If you wish to alter the default settings you will
have to re-alter them each time you initiate MARKET MENTOR 1.5. The
parameter dialog box allows the user to change the following settings:
a) Market State: If the directional trend is sideways, 10-day slow
stochastics and Percent R indexes are used to
judge the Market State and give an overbought,
oversold or neutral indication in the following
way:
Overbought: >70% slow stochastics and
<30% Percent R
Oversold: >70% Percent R and
<30% slow stochastics
These are the default values, you can change them
using the Clear and numbered pushbuttons in
conjunction with your mouse.
b) Market Direction: Tells the general trend based on
an 18-day Relative Strength Index (RSI). The
default values are: RSI above 65% is considered
an upward trend, below 35% is a downward trend,
anything else is sideways.
c) Strength Std. Dev.: If there is a trend, the Average Directional
Movement Index (ADX) is used to determine its
strength. The default value is: any value within
one standard deviation of the 30-day mean is
moderate in strength. Weak and strong are from
the appropriate values outside this area.
d) Neural Std. Dev.: The Short Term Outlook is based entirely on the
neural index, using the same standard
deviation analysis as on the ADX for up, down
or sideways outlook. It has its own parameter
for the number of standard deviations used in this
analysis and has a default value of one.
e) Stop-Loss Std. Dev.: The Trailing Stop-Loss is default set at two
standard deviations from the high or low market
data.
Data
The Data menu allows two operations to be performed:
a) Add Daily Data: This option allows you to add daily market data
to data files without using the editor discussed
below. After selecting the market you wish to
add to, you will be presented with a dialog box to
enter the market data. Radiobuttons are used to
select specific fields, while the Clear and
numbered pushbuttons are used, in conjunction
with the mouse, to enter the market data.
NOTE: This method of entering market data always
trims your data file to the 60 most recent
trading days. Thus, if you wish to keep
large amounts of historical data in your
files do not use this feature, use the
editor below.
b) Edit Data File: I'm going to assume you've seen an editor before.
Most of the features of the Windows(TM) Notebook
apply here.
Analysis
Now we come down to business.
a) Select Markets: This is is where you choose the markets you wish
to study, if your paths are set up right, you
should be looking at the contents of the DATA
directory right now. Markets are selected one
at a time by adding them to a visible list.
b) Pre-Process Data: Initial calculations are done here, if you
only wish to see graphs of market data and
non-neural indexes, this is all the processing
required.
c) Correlate: This option performs calculations to determine
how each of the selected markets correlated with each
other over the last 30 trading days. The results can be
viewed directly from the Reports menu. It is
recommended that markets with more than 50% correlation
should not be traded together.
d) Run Neural Nets: This option must be used if you want to see the
Basic Report (Reports menu) or see the Neural
Index on the graphs. This option creates a file
in the OUTPUT directory that contains various
trend indicators for the last 30 trading days
(30 minimum). This file can be viewed from
within MARKET MENTOR 1.5 using the Editor.
Reports
a) View Basic Report: Simple format. Tells trends based on the
parameters discussed above.
The Trailing Stop-Loss is expressed in the same
terms as the market's input data, so be careful
you understand the situation before you use it:
eg. Deutsche Mark: the data file presents
market data in US$ per 100 marks. The
stop-loss figure is also in US$ per
100 marks.
b) View Correlation: This report shows a pair of graphs. Each graph
shows the PDI (blue) and NDI (red) of the last
29 trading days for one of the two markets to be
correlated. The actual percent correlation is
written at the center of the screen in green.
It is easy to see at a glance how closely the
two markets are correlated. This display
requires colour VGA.
c) Graphs: Unless you use colour VGA, these are of limited use to you.
Otherwise these are probably every futures trader's
favorite tool. The graphs are non-adjustable 29-day
windows on the market and its indicators. The market
data is always present, the vertical axis is always
calibrated for the market data. The indicators need no
axis as they are unitless and for relative comparison
only. Each indicator has its own colour, labeled at the
lower left part of the screen. The abbreviations are as
follows:
a) PDI: Positive Directional Index;
b) NDI: Negative Directional Index;
c) ADX: Average Directional Movement Index;
d) K: slow stochastics;
e) MOMENTUM;
f) RSI: Relative Strength Index;
g) % R: Percent R;
h) 4 MA: 4 Day Moving Average;
i) 9 MA: 9 Day Moving Average;
j) 18 MA: 18 Day Moving Average, and
k) NEURAL: neural net index.
A competent explanation of the above market indicators
is beyond the scope of this README, we refer you to a
comprehensive text on technical futures market analysis,
available in any good bookstore.
On the graph there are two horozontal axis. The lower
one is the zero axis for the market indicators that can
have negative values (ie. ADX, Momentum and the Neural
Index). The upper axis is the date line for market data.
Market indicators that never have negative values are
plotted with the market data. The literal values of these
indicators have limited usefulness. It is their relative
value over time that is most valuable. Thus no literal
values are shown on the graph except for market data.
The Neural Index, being a predictive indicator, is shown on
the graph in a time-displaced mode. That is, yesterday's
number is shown with today's market data so you can see
at a glance if the Neural Index has been accurate in
following the short-term movements in the market. While
this convention is used on both the upper and lower graphs,
only the upper one seeks to forecast the next day's market
move. The lower graph seeks to show a short-term forecast
in general.
The vertical axis is calibrated in the same terms as
the data was entered.
The remaining menu options are fairly standard to modern programs.
Who Should Register and Why
This is one of our first software offering to futures traders, if you
like this product and, more importantly, if it helps you make money, the
$25.00 US (or $30 CAN) registration fee is a small price to pay to
encourage us to write more programs for you. This is especially true
since we promise that registered users of MARKET MENTOR 1.5 will get a
preemptive opportunity to get all new releases of investment analysis software.
If you have used any of the software currently available for
futures traders you will soon know that MARKET MENTOR 1.5 is better than many
pieces of software that sell for as much as 100 times more than
our registration fee. In addition, few of the other vendors will let you
try their software for as long as you can with MARKET MENTOR 1.5 before
you are requested to register. We request that you register your copy of
MARKET MENTOR 1.5 within 60 days of receipt if you find it is of value to you.
Other reasons to register are:
(a) to put your name on our list for additional MARKET MENTOR 1.5
neural nets to cover other markets. Tell us which ones you want
when you register. Additional market nets only cost $10 US each
($12 CAN), barely enough to cover the training time.
(b) to tell us how well you are able to trade with MARKET MENTOR 1.5, what
was helpful, what was not, and what you want to see in the next
version.
Legal Details
MARKET MENTOR is a registered trademark of Orbis Terrarum Software Inc.
CORPORATE AND GOVERNMENTAL SITE LICENSE
This is a license for use of the software within your company or government
agency, and is not transferable. This allows internal use and copying
of the software for as many sites / computers as contracted for. (See
Site License price schedule). All licenses are prepaid.
PRIVATE USE
This license is not necessary for clubs or user groups distributing the
software on a SHAREWARE basis, providing that the entire MARKET MENTOR 1.5
program with the accompanying README file, in an unaltered state, is included in the
distribution, and no more than a nominal fee (not to exceed $10) is charged
for such distribution.
SITE LICENSE PRICE SCHEDULE
MARKET MENTOR 1.5
Diskette with program and accompaning files ...... $25.00 US or
$30.00 CAN
per CPU.
SITE LICENSE
Orbis Terrarum Software Inc.
561-1755 Robson Street
Vancouver, BC
V6G 3B7
Orbis Terrarum hereby grants ____________________________________ a site
license for _______ computers for the use of the following software
program: MARKET MENTOR 1.5
This is a perpetual license for the use of the software within your
company, and is not transferable. This license allows internal use
and copying of the software by as many users/ machines as contracted
for. Distribution, repackaging, or reselling of the software, to
third parties, is not allowed under this agreement.
Orbis Terrarum hereby disclaims all warranties relating to this software,
whether express or implied, including without limitation any implied
warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.
Orbis Terrarum will not be liable for any special, incidental,
consequential, indirect or similar damages due to the loss of data or funds
even if Orbis Terrarum Software or an agent of Orbis Terrarum Software
has been advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event shall
Orbis Terrarum's liability for any damages ever exceed the price paid for
the license to use the software, regardless of the form of the
claim. The person using the software bears all risk as to the
quality and performance of the software.
This agreement shall be construed and enforced in accordance with
the laws of the PROVINCE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA. Any action or
proceeding brought by either party against the other arising out of
or related to this agreement shall be brought only in a PROVINCIAL
or FEDERAL COURT of competent jurisdiction located in British Columbia,
Canada. The parties hereby consent to in personam jurisdiction of said
courts.
COMPANY: ____________________________________________________ *
ADDRESS: ____________________________________________________ *
CITY: _____________________ STATE: ___ ZIP CODE: ______ *
AUTHORIZED SIGNATURE: ____________________________________ *
TITLE: _______________________ DATE: ________________ *
Orbis Terrarum AUTHORIZED SIGNATURE: __________________________
TITLE: DATE: ________________
* Complete these lines. Send with check based on price schedule.
A copy of this agreement will be returned.
Make cheque payable to Orbis Terrarum Software.
Be careful and Good Trading!
